Correction continuation which may be deeper also

Technical Analysis,Research & EOD Outlook

(Sep 21 to Sep 25,2020)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Wave B structure & Stochastics)

Nifty-EOD Chart (18-Sep-2020):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Corrective Wave-A completion at 7511.10 on 24-03-2020 and Wave-B beginning

2- Wave-c of Wave-B completion indications with recent top formation at 11794.3 on 31-08-2020

3- 14 Sessions sideways trading between 11186-11585

4- Stochastic-%K(5) is at 67.87 & %D(3) is at 76.96

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Wave B structure & Stochastics)

As Nifty crashed 406 points from higher levels and closed 260 points down on 31-08-2020 as well as formed long Bearish Engulfing candle on both EOD and Weekly chart therefore generated strongest indication of Wave-B completion at 11794.3 and Wave-C beginning to move towards and below the origin of Wave-B(7511.10).

Although such big fall on 31-08-2020 but after that Nifty has turned sideways between 11186-11585 immediately after that and since then trading within this range for the last 14 sessions.  

Short Term indicator Stochastics has also generated correction signal in following manner:-

1- Both lines have started to move down from over bought zone.

2- %K has intersected %d downward.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Averages,Trend line & MACD)

Nifty-EOD Chart (18-Sep-2020):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Corrective Wave-A completion at 7511.10 on 24-03-2020 and Wave-B beginning

2- Wave-c of Wave-B completion indications with recent top formation at 11794.3 on 31-08-2020

3- Wave-B is trading below its Trend line

4- Intermediate Term Trend decider 55-Day SMA is today at 11219

5- Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA is today at 10779

6- MACD line intersected Average line downward 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Averages,Trend line & MACD)

As Nifty is trading below Wave-B Trend line and MACD line intersected Average line downward in MACD indicator also therefore strong signals of decisive down moves beginning which will be seen in the coming week/weeks.

Now Nifty is trading above Intermediate Term Trend decider 55-Day SMA(today at 11219) and Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA(today at 10779) therefore Intermediate and Long Term Trends are up and Nifty will get some supports at these 2 Averages during its downward journey which should also be watched for these 2 main trends changing confirmations.  

Nifty-Last 14 Sessions 

intraday charts analysis

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Sep 01 to Sep 18,2020):-

Technical Patterns formation in last 14 Sessions intraday charts

1- Selling(Resistances) in last 14 sessions are between:-

A- 11520-11584

B- 11397-11460

2- Consolidation(Supports) in last 14 sessions are sessions:-

A- 11301-11339

B- 11186-11243

C- 11343-11357

D- Double bottom supports at 11366

3- 14 Sessions actual trading between 11186-11585 

Conclusions from 14 Sessions

intra day chart analysis 

Nifty crashed 406 points higher levels on 31-08-2020 and after that traded last 14 sessions of this month between 11186-11585 with higher levels selling and lower levels buying.

As both higher levels higher levels good selling and lower levels equally good buying in last 14 sessions therefore Nifty will firstly trade within last 14 sessions trading range as well as prepare in the coming week for next decisive big moves beyond this range.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis

(18-Sep-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (18-Sep-2020):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- 5 Hours selling between 11538-11584(immediate Resistances)

2- Sharp fall

3- Slow up moves and sideways trading in last hour

4- Whole day actual trading between 11447-11584

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As firstly 5 Hours good selling between 11538-11584 therefore sharp fall was seen. Although after that slow up moves and sideways trading in last hour but sufficient consolidation was not seen therefore more down moves are expected in the next week.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

1- Long term trend is up and it will be down below 10779.

2- Intermediate term trend is sideways between 11186-11585 and it will be down below 11219.

3- Short term trend is has turned down in previous week.

As strongest indications of Wave-B completion and Wave-C beginning emerged on 31st Aug 2020 after 406 points sharp fall from higher levels therefore correction continuation is expected but immediately after that Nifty has turned sideways between 11186-11585 and once sustaining below it will mean huge fall because that will be Intermediate term trend turning down confirmation also after sustaining below its decider 55-Day SMA(today at 11219).

Following developments are suggesting deeper correction in the coming week/weeks:-

1- Nifty is trading below Wave-B Trend line.

2- %K has intersected %d downward in over bought zone Stochastics.

3- MACD line intersected Average line downward in MACD.    

As above developments therefore correction continuation is expected in the coming week/weeks which may be deeper also.

 correction continuation towards next supports

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(18-09-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (17-Sep-2020):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 11552-11587(immediate Resistances)

2- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channels

3- Sharp fall

4- Whole day actual trading between 11499-11587

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As Dow Futures was in deep Red and resultant all the Asian markets were trading in Negative zone trerefore weaker opening of Indian markets and firstly selling was seen between 11552-11587 hence this range will be immediate Resistances of Nifty and until Nifty will not sustain above it till then decisive up moves will not be seen.

Most of the up moves were in Bearish Rising Channels in Mid-session therefore sharp fall in last hour hence today closing was near the lowest of the day. 

As Short Term indicators are Over bought and whole day good selling patterns were seen therefore today started correction continuation in expected towards following next supports:-

1- Double bottom supports at 11366

2- 11301-11357

3- 11186-11243

 Finally sharp down after follow up selling

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(17-09-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (16-Sep-2020):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 11537-11588

2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel

3- Selling between 11595-11618

4- Whole day actual trading between 11517-11618

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although today closing was at the top of the day but selling patterns were also seen 2 times and little consolidation was through in Mid-session through Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel.

As soon as Dow Jones Futures started to move up and good opening of European markets also therefore Indian markets also have recovered.  

As Short Term indicators are Over bought and selling patterns are also being seen as well as only positive sentiments drives up moves therefore finally sharp down moves will be seen in the coming 1/2 sessions after follow up selling.

 Finally slip below today lowest after follow up selling 

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(16-09-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (15-Sep-2020):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 11485-44508 

2- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channels

3- Sideways trading between 11510-11535

4- Whole day actual trading between 11443-11535

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As all the Asian markets were trading in Green after strong closing of US markets yesterday therefore positive opening of Indian markets.

Although Nifty closed 81 points up today but it was due to strong rally in Dow Jones Futures which was trading 175 points up and all the European markets were in Green.

As firstly selling between 11485-44508 and after that selling through Up moves in Bearish Rising Channels also therefore expected that Nifty will not sustain above today highest(11535) and will finally slip below today lowest(11443) after follow up selling in the coming 1/2 sessions.

 Finally down moves towards next supports

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook(15-09-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (14-Sep-2020):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- More than 4 hours sideways trading between 11520-11568

2- Sharp fall

3- Volatility in last hours

4- Whole day actual trading between 11384-11568

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Live Proofs of levels accuracy:-

1st resistances between 11550-11569 were posted on 12-09-2020 in "More down moves expectations after fresh selling" and today highest is exactly at 11568.90.

Nifty traded sideways more than 4 hours within and just below above mentioned resistances(11550-11569) between 11520-11568 under heated sentiments due to following positive news flow:- 

1- DOW Futures was trading more than 300 points up.

2- All the Asian markets were trading in Green.

3- Oxford University said in a statement on Saturday that it is resuming the ‘paused’ vaccine trial of the ChAdOx1 COVID vaccine in clinical trial sites in the United Kingdom.

4- SEBI, in a circular, on Friday announced new set of portfolio allocation rules for multi cap mutual funds where the Market Regulator made it mandatory for the multi cap funds to invest a minimum of 25% of their portfolio each in large cap stocks, mid caps and small cap companies.

As some selling due to above Bullish developments therefore sharp fall was seen just before 02:00 PM and last hours Volatility therefore until Nifty will not sustain above today highest after complete fresh consolidation till then decisive up moves will not be seen.

Next resistances below today lowest are as follows:-

1- Double bottom supports at 11366

2- 11301-11357

3- 11186-11243

As some selling today and Very Short Term indicators have also turned over bought therefore expected that finally down moves will be seen towards above mentioned next supports after fresh selling in the coming sessions.