9401.50 is Maximum Target of on Going Wave-5 of Nifty

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Feb 16 to Feb 20,2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Feb-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-i of Wave-3 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-i of Wave-3(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-ii of Wave-3(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-iii of Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-iv of Wave-3(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-v of Wave-3 continuation with recent top formation at 8822.10 on 13-02-2015

Waves Structure of Wave-v of Wave-3

Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Feb-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-iv of Wave-3 completion at 7961.35 on 17-12-2014 and beginning of Wave-1 of Wave-v of Wave-3)
2- Wave-1 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8445.60 on 05-01-2015 
3- Wave-2 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8065.45 on 07-01-2015
4- Wave-3 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8996.60 on 30-01-2015
4- Wave-4 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8470.50 on 10-02-2015
5- Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 continuation with recent top formation at 8822.10 on 13-02-2015

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Long and Intermediate Term Trends are up and Short Term Trend is sideways between 8470-8996 with following supports and resistances:-

1- Supports between 8595-8615
2- Supports between 8554-8574
3- Supports between 8475-8505
4- Resistances between 8820-8852
5- Resistances between 8918-8936

Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 continuation with recent top formation at 8822.10 on 13-02-2015. Nifty tested above mentioned 1st resistance on 13-02-2015 but could not sustain and closed just below it. As resistances are lying up to 8936 therefore follow up consolidation is firstly required for sustaning above it and once sustaining above 8936 will mean strong possibility of fresh rally in uncharted territory after new life time high formations. Calculation of targets above 8996 are as follows:-

As per Elliot Wave theory:-

"Wave-3 of any degree should not be shorter than both Wave-1 and Wave-5 of same degree"

Wave-5 started from 8470.50 and it can not gain more than 931 points because Wave-3 gained 931 Points therefore target of on going Wave-5 will be less than  9401.50 and its calculations are as follows:-

1- Wave-3 of Wave-v of Wave-3 gained 931 points(8996-8065) 
2- Wave-4 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completed at 8470.50 
3- Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 started from 8470.50 
4- As Elliot Wave theory says that Wave-5 can not gain more than more than Wave-3 therefore Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 can gain maximum 931 points and its:- 

Maximum target of Nifty will be:less than 9401.50(8470.50+931)

Retracement Levels in uncharted zone:-

[1.130] 9117
[1.236] 9215
[1.270] 9247
[1.382] 9351(Crucial levels)
[1.500] 9461(Crucial levels)

Maximum target of on going Wave of Nifty is at 9401.50 which lies exactly between 1.382% and 1.5% which are crucial retracement levels therefore high possibility of on going Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3  completion between 9351-9461

Short Term Trend is sideways between 8470-8996 and finally sustaining beyond this range next trend. Although supports st lower levels within this range but resistances are also lying at higher levels therefore follow up consolidation is firstly required for crossing and sustaining above mentioned resistances.

Expected that finally rally will remain continued in the uncharted zone towards 9401.50

Live Proofs of Accurate Levels

Following resistances were updated yesterday in "Pull Back Rally continuation but after Consolidation" 

1- Resistance between 8820-8852
2- Resistance between 8918-8936

Nifty faced resistance at above mentioned 1st Resistance range and retraced more than 30 points after highest formation at 8822.10

Pull Back Rally continuation but after Consolidation 

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(13-02-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (12-Feb-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8662-8670
2- Consolidations between 8600-8615
1- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
3- Whole day actual trading between 8599-8732

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following conclusive line was told yesterday in "line Confirmation is must through sustaining beyond 8565-8651":-

fresh rally after correction completion possibility is also turning high 

As was told yesterday 100% same happened and Nifty closed 84.15 points up today after 133 points rally from lower levels

Although firstly 10 minutes selling between 8662-8670 after 49 points gap up opening but negative zone trading was also seen after first 2 hours down moves therefore sentiment dampened completely which was must for fresh consolidations. As Mixed trading patterns between 8565-8651 in last 3 sessions therefore consolidation was firstly required for decisive up moves and it was seen also between 8600-8615,resultant more than 100 points rally in last 2 hours today.  

Although strong rally today with closing near the higher levels of the day but Up moves were in Bearish Rising Channel also and following resistances are also lying at higher levels therefore follow up consolidation is firstly required for decisive up moves above today highest and correction completion confirmations:-

1- Resistance between 8820-8852
2- Resistance between 8918-8936

Emergence of correction completion possibility after strong recovery from lower levels but confirmation will be after sustaining above 8936. As last 3 sessions trading range(8565-8651) broken out forcefully therefore today started Pull Back Rally continuation is expected but firstly consolidation is must because Up moves were in Bearish Rising Channel.

Mid-session Outlook(12-02-2015)

 Although gap up opening by 49 points and after that first 10 minutes selling between 8662-8670 as well as sharp down and trading negative below 8600 but lower levels good consolidations also between 8600-8615 therefore Pull Back rally continuation and emergence of correction completion possibility also.

Mid-session Outlook(12-02-2015)

Although Nifty opened 49 points gap up but selling confirmations between 8662-8670.

Confirmation is must through sustaining beyond 8565-8651

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(12-02-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (11-Feb-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel.
2- Complete intraday corrections before up moves.
3- Whole day actual trading between 8593-8651

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told yesterday in "Selling amid Delhi Elections results led high volatility"

good selling in last 2 sessions and until complete consolidation will not happen as well as Nifty does not sustain above 8640 till then decisive up moves will not be considered. 

Following lines were told today at 09:26 PM in "Post-open Outlook(11-02-2015)"

Selling between 8565-8640 in last 2 sessions and sustaining beyond this range will decide the fate of on going correction

As was told 100% same happened and Nifty could not sustain above 8640 as well as closed at 8627.40 today.

Nifty traded whole day between 8593-8651 with mixed patterns formations today because Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel and complete intraday corrections were also seen before up moves therefore Mixed patterns formations today and almost same following view with little change of levels:-

1- Last 3 sessions trading between 8565-8651 and once sustaining above or forceful break out of 8651 will mean a strong Pull Back rally because sufficient consolidation patterns were seen today. 
2- As selling patterns were also seen today after last 2 sessions selling therefore sustaining blow after follow up selling will mean beginning of fresh deeper correction.

As steep fall was not seen after huge defeat of BJP in Delhi Assembly Elections and market got supports at the lower levels of last 3 sessions as well as Nifty traded at the higher levels of last 3 sessions range(8565-8640) today therefore fresh rally after correction completion possibility is also turning high but next trend confirmation is must through sustaining beyond 8565-8651 because mixed patterns formations within this range in last 3 sessions.

Post-open Outlook(11-02-2015)

As Dow,Jones closed 139 points up and other Indices of US markets also closed more than 1% up yesterday therefore sentiment boosted and positive opening on Indian markets today. Selling between 8565-8640 in last 2 sessions and sustaining beyond this range will decide the fate of on going correction and should be firstly watched for next decisive moves confirmations after:-

1- Correction completion above 8640
2- Correction continuation below 8565

Selling amid Delhi Elections results led high volatility

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(11-02-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (10-Feb-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- High Volatility
2- Selling between 8590-8640(Immediate Resistances)
3- Selling between 8570-8684(Immediate Resistances)
4- Lower levels minor supports
5- Whole day actual trading between 8475-8640

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis

Life Proofs of our accurate Levels:-

We repeated the importance of 8565 in all the previous 3 Outlooks and Nifty closed exactly at 8565.55 today

Nifty lost 470 points in last 7 straight downward sessions and surprising defeat of BJP in Delhi Elections also therefore sentiment turned depressed  before the opening of Indian markets today. As most small traders turns Bearish in such depressed sentiments therefore fast recovery immediately after opening for  short covering of small traders and almost 2 hours higher levels selling between 8590-8640 was also seen.

As selling between 8565-8605 yesterday and follow up selling also seen  between 8570-8684 today therefore Nifty slipped 90 points sharply. Although 100 points recovery also from lower levels in last hours but only minor supports were seen at lower levels therefore view will not be Bullish despite positive zone closing today.

Delhi Elections results led high volatility today but correction is on and its continuation is expected because good selling in last 2 sessions and until complete consolidation will not happen as well as Nifty does not sustain above 8640 till then decisive up moves will not be considered. Following next crucial retracement levels should be watched for first signal of correction completion because trend reversal possibilities remain high at these crucial retracement levels:-

1-0.500%- 8478
2-0.618%- 8356

Pre-closing Outlook(10-02-2015)

Following line was told today in Mid-session Outlook(10-02-2015);- 

As selling between 8565-8605 yesterday therefore once slipping below 8565 will mean again sharp down 

Nifty slipped 90 points within 1 hour after moving below 8565 and again recovered more than 100 points after lowest formation at 8475

Delhi Elections results led high volatility today but selling formations yesterday and follow up selling also seen at higher levels today therefore until Nifty will not sustain above today highest(8640) till then decisive up moves will not be considered and correction will remain continued.

Mid-session Outlook(10-02-2015)

As sizzling sentiments after most surprising defeat of BJP in Delhi Elections therefore intraday volatility is being seen today because:-

1- Most traders have become Bearish after yesterday sharp fall and devastating defeat of BJP in Delhi Elections today.
2- Up moves were seen immediately after opening to compel small traders for short covering. 

Following levels should be watched now:-

1- As selling between 8590-8640 today therefore until Nifty will not sustain above 8640 till then next up moves will not be considered.
2- As selling between 8565-8605 yesterday therefore once slipping below 8565 will mean again sharp down after follow up selling in resistance ranges.

As trend retracement possibilities remain high  at crucial retracement levels therefore have been updated yesterday in both previous Outlooks and should be watched for next trend confirmations.

Delhi Elections Exit Poll Results led Deeper Correction 

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(10-02-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (09-Feb-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8565-8605(Immediate Resistances)
3- Whole day actual trading between 8517-8605

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

No one imagined such dismal performance of BJP in Delhi Assembly Elections as was shown in Exit Poll Results last Saturday therefore huge gap down opening in Indian Financial mrkets today in following manner:-

1- Nifty opened 75 points down
2- Sensex opened 273 points down
3- USDINR opened 30 Paisa down 

Correction is on and Exit Poll Results fuelled it today as well as follow up selling seen in whole day deep Red zone trading today. As more than 5 hours selling between 8517-8605 therefore this range will be 1st resistance and next up move will be considered only after sustaining above 8605.

As BJP defaeat in Delhi elections may have far reaching policy implications therefore Indian financial markets reacted so drastically today and if anything miraculous in favour of BJP comes out after actual results tomorrow then immediate recovery may be seen otherwise correction continuation will be seen after Intermediate Term Trend turning down confirmations.

Next strong supports are lying between 8080-8300 and next crucial  retracement levels are as follows:-

1-0.382%- 8601
2-0.500%- 8478
3-0.618%- 8356

Post-open Outlook(09-02-2015)

As Exit Poll results confirmed last Saturday that BJP is going to loose Delhi Elections therefore sentiment completely depressed in Indian financial markets and following weakness is being seen today:-

Nifty is trading 66 points down
Sensex is trading 231 points down
USDINR is trading 33 Paisa down

At present correction is on and next strong supports are lying between 8080-8300 and next retracement levels are as follows:-

1-0.382%- 8601
2-0.500%- 8478
3-0.618%- 8356

Pre-open Outlook(09-02-2015)

As sentiment completely depressed after BJP defeat confirmation by  Exit Poll results in Delhi Elections therefore weak opening will be seen in Indian markets and correction will remain continued.