Mid-session Outlook(20-05-2016)

Although most time positive zone trading since opening today but Indian markets have completely under performed Asian and European markets today. View is cautious because good selling on the back of strong Global cues can not be ruled out in this situation. As SEBI tightened norms on P-notes after the closing of Indian markets yesterday therefore Its reaction is being seen today because this issue will have direct impact on liquidity towards Indian markets. 

Nifty is sideways between 7774-7812 today and valid break out of this today trading range will give first strong indication of P-notes tightening impact on Indian markets therefore should be firstly watched now.

Post-open Outlook(20-05-2016)

Although most time positive trading since opening today but Indian markets have under performed Asian markets since opening today therefore view is cautious because it is the impact of SEBI tightening norms on Participatory notes.  As this issue will have direct impact on liquidity towads Indian markets therefore its implications have to be firstly understood and finally sustaining beyond 7678 will confirm its imact

Finally Up Moves Expectations amid Negative news led Weakness

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(20-05-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (19-May-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Fed rate hike news led whole days down moves
2- Sideways markets till the opening of European markets
2- Whole day Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
3- Whole day actual trading between 7766-7876

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As Fed rate hike news therefore most Asian markets were down and some were more than 0.50% weak,in reaction negative opening of Indian markets. Although Indian markets remained sideways but fresh down moves started after more than 1% weaker opening of most European markets.  

Although positive news of good performance of BJP in 5 Assembly Elections but Indian markets may firstly react following negative developments after closing of Indian markets today:-

1- Sebi tighten screws on participatory notes
2- European markets negative closing from 0.85% to 1.82%
3- Dow Jones traded 194 points down today.

As intraday selling patterns were not seen and all the today down moves were negative news led as well as Whole day today Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels therefore still expected that Nifty will not sustain below next supports(7678) and finally up moves will be seen towards and above 8000 despite such high Bearishness in all Global markets.

Just watch Crucial Levels amid Fed rate hike news and 5 states Election results 

U.S. stocks fell under pressure on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve released minutes of its April meeting showing the central bank is ready to lift interest rates in June if the economy show improvement. Although Dow Jones nosedived more than 200 points from higher levels after this news and closed flat but most Asian markets traded more than 0.50% negative today morning. 

As Dow's Futures also traded more than more than 40 points down today therefore falling fear being developed in all the Global markets and Indian markets will also react it through negative zone trading today.

Indian markets will finally react today both Fed rate hike news and 5 states Election results and may remain highly volatile also today but final reaction of both news will be seen tomorrow after understanding and digesting these news. Certainly news led uncertainty today therefore firstly watch valid break out of following levels to understand Nifty next trend after reaction of these news:-

1-7811-7940(first indication)
2-7678-7992(final confirmation) 

Rally Continuation Expectations amid Election results led volatility 

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(19-05-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (18-May-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Minor consolidation between 7811-7828
2- Minor consolidation between 7842-7859
3- Whole day actual trading between 7811-7882

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As more than 1% down closing of US markets therefore most Asian markets were trading in Red and Hang Seng was also more than 1% down,resultant sentiment was weak today morning and in reaction huge gap down opening of Indian markets with negative closing after whole day negative zone trading today. 

Although today closing near the higher levels of the day but minor consolidation patterns formations therefore some more consolidation is also required for decisive up moves above today highest.

Election results of 5 states will be declared tomorrow and picture will be clear till 11:00 AM tomorrow but volatility may remain high amid uncertainty. As good intraday consolidation yesterday and some consolidation was also seen today therefore today started rally continuation is expected tomorrow also and once BJP clear majority in Assam with more than 10% votes share in other states will mean beginning of fresh Rally above 8000 and that is technically expected also.

Finally Up Moves above Today Highest(7940) in the Coming 1/2 Sessions

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(18-05-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (17-May-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation Patterns between 7889-7913 
2- Consolidation Patterns between 7917-7940 
3- Last hour down moves after sharp fall in most European markets and Dow's Futures
4- Whole day actual trading between 7880-7940

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although Nifty closed near the higher levels of the day but we told following lines yesterday in "GST Bill Passing news led Today Rally require more Confirmations":-

1- last hours up moves after above mentioned Bullish news in the news channels therefore
2- firstly follow up consolidation and after that confirmation through sustaining above next immediate resistance(7900-7932) is must 

Although follow up good consolidation patterns formations were seen today but confirmation through sustaining above next immediate resistance(7900-7932) was must and it was not seen because today closing was below 7900. As last hour today down moves were after sharp fall in most European markets and Dow's Futures therefore view will not be Bearish despite today closing near the lower levels of the day as well as once follow up consolidation tomorrow will mean strong rally towards and above 8000.

As good intraday consolidation patterns formations therefore expected that finally up moves above today highest(7940) will be seen in the coming 1/2 sessions after follow up consolidation within and below today lowest despite more than 0.50% down trading of US and all European markets at this moment.

GST Bill Passing news led Today Rally require more Confirmations

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(17-05-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (16-May-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- More than 5 hours trading Mixed Patterns formations between 7773-7822
2- Up moves in last hours after FM Arun Jaiteley statement in news channels regarding GST passing in next Monsoon Session.
3- Whole day actual trading between 7773-7873

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told today at 12:44 AM in "Firstly Watch 7678 amid Weak beginning Week":-

possibility of slipping below day's lowest(7785) in the beginning of next week.

Although all the Asian markets were trading in Green zone and some were more than 1% up also but Nifty slipped below 7785 after positive opening and moved up after lowest formation at 7772.15 today. Following news was in the news channels during Indian trading hours today:-

GST Bill will be passed in upcoming monsoon session, says Arun Jaitley

As firstly more than 5 hours trading with Mixed Patterns formations between 7773-7822 and last hours up moves after above mentioned Bullish news in the news channels therefore firstly follow up consolidation and after that confirmation through sustaining above next immediate resistance(7900-7932) is must for decisive up moves to counter last resistance(7954-7992) of Post Budget 2016-17 Rally.

Firstly Watch 7678 amid Weak beginning Week

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(May 16 to May 20,2016)

Nifty-EOD Chart (13-May-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-1 beginning after bottom formation at 6825.80 on 29-02-2016
2- Corrective Wave-A of Wave-2 beginning after Wave-1 completion at 7992 on 28-04-2016  
3- Wave-A completion at 7678.35 on 06-05-2016
4- Signals of Wave-B completion at 7916.05 on 2-05-2016
5- Signals of Wave-C continuation with bottom formation at 7784.20 on 13-05-2016
6- Hovering around Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 7780) for the last 10 sessions

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

The rally(impulsive Wave-1) which begun from 6825.80 on Budget 2016-17 day(29-02-2016) completed at 7992 on 28-04-2016 and ABC correction of Wave-2 started. Now it seems that its Wave-C is on with recent bottom formation at 7784.20 on 13-05-2016. As Nifty is hovering around Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 7780) for the last 10 sessions between 7678-7916 therefore finally sustaining it beyond will confirm Long Term Trend and next more than 5% one sided big move as well.

Intra Day Chart Analysis(13-05-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (13-May-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Slipping 40 points in first minute
2- More than 2 hours selling between 7825-7844
3- All the Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel in last 3 hours 
4- Whole day actual trading between 7785-7880

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Firstly slipping 40 points in first minute and after that more than 2 hours selling between 7825-7844 as well as all the Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel in last 3 hours therefore possibility of slipping below day's lowest(7785) in the beginning of next week.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

All the trends are sideways and finally sustaining beyond 7678-7916 will be following confirmation of next trends:-

1- Slipping below 7678 will confirm Wave-C with fresh down moves beginning towards 7412(161.8% of Wave-A)
2- Sustaining above 7916 will mean correction completion at 7678.35 on 06-05-2016 and high possibility of fresh up moves above the top of post Budget 2016-17 rally(7992)

Although Nifty closed after recovering 30 points points from lower levels but selling patterns formation last Friday therefore expected that firstly down moves towards 7678 will be seen in the beginning of next weak and finally moves beyond 7678 will decide next big moves which should be firstly watched in next week.