Fate of next big moves will be according to levels break out

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Apr 05 to Apr 09,2021)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Waves structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (01-Apr-2021):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Corrective Wave-C completion and Impulsive Wave-1 beginning from 7511.10 on 24-03-2020  

2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 11794.30 on 31-08-2020 and corrective Wave-2 beginning

3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 10790.20 on 24-09-2020 and Impulsive Wave-3 beginning

4- Impulsive Wave-3 completion indications after new life time top formation at 15431.8 on 16-02-2021

5- Correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 14264.4 on 25-03-2021

6- Last 40 sessions sideways trading between 14265-15431.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Waves structure)

Impulsive Wave-1 started on 24-03-2020 from 7511.10 and its impulsive Wave-3 completion strong indications developed after new life time top formation at 15431.8 on 16-02-2021.

The correction which started from 15431.8 is in continuation for the last 30 sessions with recent bottom formations at 14264.4 on 25-03-2021 and no confirmation of its completion yet. 

Last 40 sessions sideways trading between 14265-15431 and finally sustaining beyond this range will confirm the life and length of on going correction which should be watched in the coming week/weeks.

Nifty-Weekly Chart Analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

Nifty-EOD Chart (01-Apr-2021):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in Weekly charts

1- Stochastic %K(5) is at 38.44 & %D(3) is at 44.41

2- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and moving towards Oversold zone

3- Stochastic- %K(5) line has flattened

4- MACD line has intersected Average line downward

5- MACD line has flattened

 

Conclusions from Weekly chart analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

Although in Weekly Stochastic %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and moving towards Oversold zone also but %K(5) line has flattened therefore suggesting to wait for next decisive moves beginning confirmations. 

Same situation is in Weekly MACD also because MACD line has intersected Average line downward and MACD line has flattened therefore MACD is also suggesting to wait for next decisive moves beginning confirmations. 

Nifty-Last 10 Sessions 

intraday charts analysis

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Nar 18 to Apr 01,2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in last 10 Sessions intraday charts

1- Last 10 sessions actual trading between 14265-14883 

2- Consolidation(Supports) in last 10 Sessions are as follows:-

A- 14794-14825

B- 14670-14722

C- 14502-14546

D- 14424-14463

E- 14365-14390

F- 14272-14314

3- Last Thursday closing at the top of last 10 Sessions  

Conclusions from 10 

Sessions intra day chart analysis 

Previous 10 sessions actual trading between 14265-14883 and last Thursday closing was at the top of last 10 Sessions as well as multiple above given lower levels supports have been developed therefore up moves will be seen in the beginning of next week.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis

(01-Apr-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (01-Apr-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels

2- Up moves with downward corrections

3- Whole day actual trading between 14693-14883

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although first 2 hours down moves after more than 100 points positive opening but in Bullish Falling Channels therefore after that whole day strong up moves were seen which were with downward corrections hence whole day consolidation will be understood last Thursday and firstly rally continuation will be seen in next week.

Conclusions 

(After Putting All Studies Together)

1- Long Term Trend is up.

2- Intermediate Term Trend is sideways between 14265-15421 for the last 40 sessions.

3- Short Term Trend is up.

Last 40 sessions sideways trading between 14265-15431 and last Thursday closing was near the center of this range at 14867.35 which means that Intermediate Term Trend is completely sideways. 6 Supports within this range below 14867.35 have been updated above and 6 resistances above it are as follows:-

1- 14901-14949

2- 14997-15046

3- 15158-15196

4- 15201-15241  

5- 15262-15319

6- 15335-15421

As multiple supports and resistance are below and above previous weekly closing(14867.35) as well as Weekly indicators(Stochastic and MACD) are suggesting to wait for next decisive moves beginning confirmations therefore last 40 sessions sideways Nifty will have to trade and prepare for next decisive moves between 14265-15421 which will be done in next week also. Let Nifty prepare then will be firstly decided according to intraday charts patterns formations and finally sustaining beyond 14265-15421 in following manner:-

1- Finally sustaining above 15421 will mean fresh strong rally after Intermediate Term correction completion. 

2- Finally sustaining below 14265 will mean more than 10% down moves after more than 40 sessions like big trading range broken down and resultant deeper correction beginning confirmations. 

At finally fate of next big moves will be according to sustaining beyond last 40 sessions trading range(14265-15421) therefore should be watched in the coming week/weeks and till then sideways market will be understood and not trending. 

9 Hours trading levels will confirm 

next big moves

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(01-04-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Mar 30 & Mar 31,2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in last 2 Sessions intraday charts

1- Little less than 9 hours trading between 14709-14781 in last 2 sessions

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (31-Mar-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- 86 Points fall in first 15 seconds 

2- Little less than 6 Hours trading between 14709-14781 

3- Last half hour trading and closing below 14709 

4- Whole day actual trading between 14671-14813

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

3 Hours consolidation between 14709-14781 yesterday and little less than 6 Hours trading was seen between within same this range today after 86 points sharp fall in first 15 seconds. 

As little less than 9 Hours trading between 14709-14781 in last 2 sessions and in which consolidation was seen within this range yesterday but some selling was also seen within same this range today therefore sustaining beyond this range should be firstly watched tomorrow for next big moves confirmations.

 3rd Resistance range will decide the fate of Pull Back Rally

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(31-03-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (30-Mar-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Up moves after gap up opening

2- 3 Hours consolidation between 14709-14781(immediate supports)

3- Rally continuation in Mid-session

4- Last hours sideways trading between 14827-14876

5- Whole day actual trading between 14618-14876

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following conclusive lines were told on 28-03-2021 in "Crucial levels will confirm the life of on going correction":-

intraday charts of last 2 sessions are showing consolidation therefore some up moves will be seen in the beginning of next week towards following resistances:-

1- 14610-14675

2- 14711-14752

3- 14792-14875

Up moves were seen today after gap up opening and rally remained continued in Mid-session also after fresh 3 hours consolidation within and near about above mentioned 2nd resistance range.

3rd Resistance was updated between 14792-14875 and Nifty traded sideways last hours within this resistance range as well as closed within it at 14845.10 therefore firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched tomorrow for last 2 sessions Pull Back Rally continuation/completion.

As following multiple resistances are lying above today highest therefore complete fresh consolidation is required for rally continuation above it(14876.30):- 

1- 14901-14949

2- 14997-15046

3- 15158-15196

4- 15201-15241  

5- 15262-15319

6- 15335-15421 

Fresh selling between or near about 14792-14875 will mean down moves towards following supports after Pull Back Rally completion:-

1- 14709-14781

2- 14424-14463

3- 14365-14390

4- 14272-14314

5- 13817-13865 

6- 13725-13776

7- 13606-13701

As finally sustaining beyond 3rd resistance range(14792-14875) will decide the fate of last 2 sessions Pull Back Rally therefore should be firstly watched in the coming sessions for its confirmations

Crucial levels will confirm the 

life of on going correction

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Mar 30 to Apr 01,2021)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

Nifty-EOD Chart(26-Mar-2021):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Stochastic %K(5) is at 29.03 & %D(3) is at 42.29

2- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward

3- MACD line has intersected Average line downward

4- Last 37 sessions sideways trading range between 14468-15421 which was broken down 3 times in last 2 weeks  but closing was within at 14507.30 after on 26-03-2021 after lowest formation at 14264.4 on 25-03-2021  

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

As Waves structure from Impulsive Wave-1 beginning(7511.10 on 24-03-2020) was updated in previous weekly Outlook and no material change in it since then therefore not being posted in this Outlook.

Last 37 sessions trading will be understood sideways between 14468-15421 because 36 sessions including last Friday closing was within this range and only one session closing was below it on 25-03-2021 as well only 3 sessions of previous 2 weeks lowests were below 14468. 

As 37 sessions like big trading range valid break out will generate huge one sided moves therefore should be firstly watched in the coming week/weeks for its confirmations.

As indicators indicators are showing downward signals in following manner therefore down moves are expected in next week:-

1- As Stochastic is moving down from overbought zone and  %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward therefore suggesting more down moves in Short Term.

2- MACD line has intersected Average line downward therefore showing downward trend.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Averages)

Nifty-EOD Chart (26-Mar-2021:-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-3 completion after new life time highest top formation at 15431.75 on 16-02-2021 and corrective Wave-4 beginning

2- Corrective Wave-4 continuation with recent bottom formation at 14264.4 on 25-03-2021

3- Double top formations

4- Averages:-

A- 5-Day SMA is today at  14586

B- 21-Day SMA is today at 14839

C- 55-Day SMA is today at 14733

D- 200-Day SMA is today at 12623

5- Last 5 sessions closing below Short Term Averages(5 & 21-Day SMA)

6- Last 2 sessions hovering around Intermediate Term Average(55-Day SMA)

Conclusions from EOD

chart analysis (Averages)

As last 37 sessions corrective Wave-4 continuation with Double top formations and previous 10 sessions closing was also below Short Term Averages(5 & 21-Day SMA) therefore giving Short Term trend turning down confirmations. 

Strong signals of Intermediate Term trend turning down also because last 3 sessions closing was below its decider 55-Day SMA. Let Nifty to sustain below 55-Day SMA then deeper correction will be seen because that will be breaking down confirmation of last 37 sessions like big trading range also.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Wave-3 Fibonacci retracement)

Nifty-EOD Chart (26-Mar-2021):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 10790.20 on 24-09-2020 and Impulsive Wave-3 beginning

2- Impulsive Wave-3 completion after new life time highest top formation at 15431.75 on 16-02-2021

3- Corrective Wave-4 continuation with recent bottom formation at 14264.4 on 25-03-2021 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

(Fibonacci retracement levels)

Corrective Wave-4 continuation which will be seen according to following Fibonacci Retracement levels of Wave-3(10790.20-15431.75):-

1- 13.0%- 14,828.40(Corrected)

2- 23.6%- 14,336.34(Corrected)

3- 27.0%- 14,178.60

4- 38.2%- 13,658.68(Crucial)

5- 50.0%- 13,110.97(Crucial)

6- 61.8%- 12,563.27(Crucial)

7- 70.7%- 12,150.20

8- 76.4%- 11,885.60

9- 78.6%- 11,783.50 

10-88.6%- 11,319.30 

Nifty-Last 2 Sessions 

intraday charts analysis

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Mar 25 & Mar 26,2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in last 2 Sessions intraday charts

1- More than 100 points sharp fall in first 15 minutes on 25-03-2021

2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels on 25-03-2021

3- Huge volatility in last 3 hours on 25-03-2021

4- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels on 25-03-2021

5- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels on 25-03-2021

6- 181 Points strong opening on 26-03-2021

7- Whole day Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels on 26-03-2021 

8- Whole day slow up moves on 26-03-2021

9- 2 Sessions actual trading between 14265-14575 

Conclusions from 2 Sessions

intra day chart analysis 

As good consolidation through more than 3 hours Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels therefore 235 points jump and after that huge volatility was seen on 25-03-2021.  

Although again good consolidation through whole day Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels but higher levels selling was also seen through whole day slow up moves on 26-03-2021 therefore sustaining above last 2 sessions highest(14575) is must with fresh consolidation for last Friday started rally continuation confirmations.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

1- Long Term Trend is up.

2- Intermediate Term Trend is down.

3- Short Term Trend turning down Strong signals.

Wave-3 correction started after double top formations which is very much on and 23.6% retracement(14336.34) has been completed during this correction. 

Although 37 sessions like big trading range(14468-15421) was sharply broken down on 25-03-2021 and closing was much below it at 14324.9 also that day but Nifty again closed within this range next day i.e. 25-03-2021 which means that 37 sessions trading range broken down confirmation is still required. As last 37 sessions trading range breaking down confirmation will mean much deeper correction therefore firstly sustaining beyond 14468 should be firstly watched in the coming week.

Indicators are suggesting more down moves and Averages are also telling more weakness  but intraday charts of last 2 sessions are showing consolidation therefore some up moves will be seen in the beginning of next week towards following resistances:-

1- 14610-14675

2- 14711-14752

3- 14792-14875

Next supports below last Friday highest are as follows:-

1- 14424-14463

2- 14365-14390

3- 14272-14314

4- 13817-13865 

5- 13725-13776

6- 13606-13701

As Nifty is still trading within crucial range between 14468-15421 for the last 37 sessions and will trade also within this range in next week for next decisive moves preparation therefore sustaining it beyond this  should be firstly watched for the life of on going correction confirmations.