Strong rally after Global markets recovery from Corona virus fear

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Feb 03 to Feb 07,2020)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(5th Wave structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (01-Feb-2020):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-i of Wave-5 beginning at 10004.55 on 26-10-2018 after Wave-4 completion
2- Wave-i of Wave-5 completion at 12103.00 on 03-06-2019 and corrective Wave-ii beginning
3- Corrective Wave-ii of Wave-5 completion at 10637.10 on 23-08-2019 and impulsive Wave-iii beginning
4- Impulsive Wave-iii of Wave-5 completion at 12430.50 on 20-01-2020 and its correction continuation
5- Correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 11633.30 on 01-02-2020 
6- First signal of deeper correction through Nifty testing 200 Day SMA(today at 11654.90) on 01-02-2020

Nifty-Fibonacci Retracement levels of Wave-5

Nifty-EOD Chart (01-Feb-2020):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Nifty-Fibonacci Retracement levels of Wave-5(10004-12430)
2- 27% Retracement has been completed

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis (01-Feb-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (01-Feb-2020):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- 4 Hours selling between 11900-12017
2- Follow up selling between 11808-111842
3- 175 Points slipping in last hour
4- Whole day actual trading between 11633-12017

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

1- Long Term Trend is at stake after Nifty testing its decider 200 Day SMA(today at 11654.90) on 01-02-2020.
2- Intermediate Term Trend down.
3- Short Term Trend is down.

Conclusions from Fibonacci Retracement levels analysis 

Nifty-Fibonacci Retracement levels of Wave-5(10004-12430):-

1- 13.0%-12114 (Retraced)
2- 23.6%-11857 (Retraced)
3- 27.0%-11775 (Retraced)
4- 38.2%-11503 (Crucial)
5- 50.0%-11217 (Crucial)
6- 61.8%-10930 (Crucial)
7- 70.7%-10714
8- 76.4%-10576
9- 78.6%-10523 
10-88.6%-10280 

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As Dow Jones closed more than 600 points down last Friday therefore Nifty slipped 75 points in first 15 seconds after gap down opening and after that slow up moves remained continued till Budget speech opening.

As Budget enthusiasm therefore selling was done on the back of Budget led heated sentiments and down moves started after 1 PM. Again follow up selling between 11808-111842 after some up moves and finally 175 Points slipping in last hour as well as closing at the lowest of Union Budget day after loosing 300 points.

Certainly huge selling therefore until complete consolidation will not develop till then Nifty will not moves above day's highest(12017) but some up moves may be seen up to 11808

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Crucial Simple Moving Averages are as follows:-

5 Day SMA is today at-11969
13 Day SMA is today at-12123
55 Day SMA is today at-12109
200 Day SMA is today at-11654

As Nifty tested Long Term Trend decider 200 Day SMA(today at 11654.90) on 01-02-2020 and closed just above it at 11661.85 on Union Budget like day therefore too much depression of sentiments will be understood but Corona virus spreading fear was also one of the reason of such big fall therefore firstly sustaining beyond 200 Day SMA and Global markets reaction on Corona virus should be watched for the life of Long Term Trend.  

27.0% retracement has been completed and Short Term Indicators have also turned Oversold therefore some up moves towards following resistances can not be ruled out and until Nifty will sustain above 12216 till then correction completion will not be considered.

1- 11808-111842
2- 11900-12017
3- 12003-12048
4- 12125-12169
5- 12160-12216

Union Budget 2-020-21 is good enough and Indian markets are following Corona virus led Global markets weakness,let world recover from this disease then strong rally will be seen in Indian markets also.  

Watch levels for up moves confirmations amid Corona virus spreading fear

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(01-02-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (31-Jan-2020):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Slow up moves in Mid-session
3- Selling between 12003-12048
4- Sharp fall in last hour
5- Whole day actual trading between 11946-12103

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although 65 points positive opening but not sustaining at higher levels because Corona virus spreading news and market started slipping. 

As firstly down moves were in Bullish Falling Channel therefore some up moves were seen in Mid-session which were slow hence selling was seen between 12003-12048 and resultant sharp fall in last hour.

Tomorrow is Budget 2020-21 day which may generate some optimism if positive announcements but sentiment is too much depressed due to negative news from Corona virus front and today closing was at 30 days lowest therefore more down moves gates are very much open and until Nifty will not close above following resistances till then fresh rally will not be considered.

1- 12003-12048
2- 12125-12169
3- 12160-12216

Sharp rally any day

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(31-01-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (30-Jan-2020):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Slipping 52 points in first 30 seconds
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Consolidation between 12011-12046
4- Whole day actual trading between 12011-12150

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As most Asian markets were trading more than 1% down and some were more than 3% weak and Dow Jones's Futures was also trading after loosing more than 200 points therefore slippinmg 52 points in first 30 seconds but after that more than 4 hours trading was with Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel and lower levels consolidation was seen between 12011-12046 in last 2 hours therefore Indian markets will be understood well prepared for sharp rally which may be seen any day because Short Term indicators have turned Over sold and whole day good intraday consolidation today.

Crashing like situation in most Global markets due to Corona virus fear therefore firstly sustaining beyond 12011-12046 should be watched in the coming sessions for rally beginning confirmations.

Watch levels amid up moves expectation

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(30-01-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (29-Jan-2020):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Up moves with corrections
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Selling between 12125-12169
4- Volatility in Mid Session
5- Support between 12113-12137
6- Whole day actual trading between 12104-12169

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although firstly some consolidation through Up moves with corrections and Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel but higher levels selling also between 12125-12169 therefore down moves and Volatility was seen in Mid Session. 

As some supports was also seen in last hour between 12113-12137 therefore whole day trading will be understood with Mixed Patterns formation between 12104-12169 and firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched for next decisive moves beginning amid up moves expectation after fresh consolidation.

Fresh rally after some more correction towards next supports

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(29-01-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (28-Jan-2020):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- More than 5 hours selling between 12102-12163(Immediate Resistances)
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Whole day actual trading between 12025-12163

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although more than 5 hours selling between 12102-12163 but after this Down moves were in Bullish Falling Channel therefore little recovery was seen from lower levels in last half hour.

As more than 5 hours selling therefore more down moves below today lowest can not be ruled out but some consolidation was also seen through Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel therefore expected that follow up consolidation will develop within or near about next supports(11930-12000) and fresh rally may begin any day which may be sharp also.

A correction in today Outlook

Right selling range is as follows:-
1- More than 5 hours selling between 12160-12216(Immediate Resistances)

Correction continuation towards next supports

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(28-01-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (27-Jan-2020):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- More than 5 hours selling between 12108-12216(Immediate Resistances)
2- Slipping in last hour
3- Whole day actual trading between 12108-12216

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As death toll rises due to Corona viruses and its spreading also all around wourd therefore Dow Jones's Futures was trading more than 200 points down today morning and resultant weaker opening of Indian markets.

Firstly more than 5 hours selling between 12108-12216 and after that slippping till last minutes as well as no consolidation patterns formations therefore correction will remain continued.

Next supports are above 12088 and once sustaining below it will mean Correction continuation towards next supports(11930-12000) and it is expected also.

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