Short Term Rally next Monday despite whatsoever Bihar Assembly Results

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Nov 09 to Nov 13,2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (06-Nov-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and Wave-A of 'ABC' correction beginning after life time high formation)
2- Wave-A(7940.30 on 12-06-2015)
3- Wave-B(8654.75 on 23-07-2015)
4- Wave-C(7539.50 on 08-09-2015)
5- Pull Back Rally completion(8336.30 on 26-10-2015)
6- Pull Back Rally correction is on with recent bottom formation at 7926.15 on 06-11-2015
7- Long Term Trend is down after last 8 sessions closing below its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8177)

Nifty-EOD Chart (06-Nov-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 7539.50 on 08-09-2015(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(8055.00 on 18-09-2015)
3- Wave-2(7691.20 on 29-09-2015)
4- Wave-3(8244.50 on 12-10-2015)
5- Wave-4(8088.60 on 13-10-2015)
6- Wave-5(8336.30 on 26-10-2015 and correction beginning)
7- correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 7926.15 on 06-11-2015

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Nov 05 & Nov 06,2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 2 Sessions intraday charts

1- All the Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels in last 2 sessions
2- 2 Sessions actual trading between 7927-8031

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

18 Months 4000 points strong rally(from 28-08-2013 to 04-03-2015 and from 5118.85 to 9119.20) with many times new life time high formation and after that 'ABC' correction begun which gave its completion signals at 7539.50 on 08-09-2015. Then Pull Back rally started from 7539.50 on 08-09-2015 which completed its 5th Wave at 8336.30 on 26-10-2015 and after that its correction begun which is in continuation with recent bottom formation at 7926.15 on 06-11-2015. 

Fibonacci Retracement levels and next 7 supports of on going correction has already been updated in following previous weekly analysis topic:-

Correction Continuation towards next 7 Supports

Nifty has completed mentioned 50% retracement and closed within 2nd support range last Friday. Certainly correction of Pull back rally is very much on and no confirmation of its completion yet but following points are giving signals of Short Term Rally in the beginning of next week:-

1- Short Term indicators are oversold
2- Intraday charts of last 2 sessions are showing consolidation patterns formations
3- Selling patterns not seen in last 2 sessions despite negative closing.
4- Doji Candle formation last Friday which is also a signal of down moves stopping.

Correction started from 8336.30 on 26-10-2015 and its completion will be considered only after sustaining above following levels:-

1- Next resistances between 8108-8152
2- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8177)

As last 2 sessions intraday charts have shown consolidation patterns formations therefore firstly Short Term Rally is expected on 09-11-2015 despite whatsoever Bihar Assembly results on 08-11-2015 and 200 Day EMA(today at 8177) will decide Rally continuation or termination.

Fresh Rally from 9th Nov after consolidation pattern formations today 

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(06-11-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (05-Nov-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Whole day all the Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
2- Whole day actual trading between 7945-8031

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although whole day down moves and more than 1% negative closing also today but all the Down moves were in Bullish Falling Channels therefore it is a signal of some up moves tomorrow. Last 3 sessions trading between 7996-8152 with following supports and resistances:-

1- Next supports are between 7996-8016
2- Next resistances are between 8108-8152

Nifty moved down and closed below last 3 sessions range and mentioned supports range has also been broken down today which is a strong signal of decisive down moves. As today all the down moves were in Bullish Falling Channels which is a consolidation pattern also and intraday selling patterns were not seen today therefore firstly sustaining below 7996 should be watched because that will be fresh deep down moves confirmation. 

Short Term indicators are oversold and above mentioned whole day consolidation pattern formations also today therefore once valid break out of 7996 will also mean first strong indication of that correction completion which started from 8336.30 on 26-10-2015.

As per our view Indian stock markets have been technically prepared today for fresh rally after on going correction completion and its trigger will NDA clear victory in Bihar Polls which we are expecting also. Let it happen on 8th Nov then fresh rally will be seen on 9th Nov 2015.

Decisive Big Moves beyond 7996-8152 after Bihar Election Results  

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(05-11-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (04-Nov-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- More than 5 hours Mixed Patterns between 8070-8094
2- Whole day actual trading between 8028-8116

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told yesterday in "Firstly Watch 7996 amid Some More Down Moves":-

As good selling today therefore some more down moves towards yesterday lowest(7996) will be seen tomorrow 

Although all the Asian markets were blasting today morning but we were not Bullish therefore we told following lines today at 07:45 AM in "Firstly Watch 8100 amid Blasting Asian Markets":-

1- strong opening will be seen in Indian markets 
2- Clear selling patterns formations between Selling between 8081-8100 yesterday
3- firstly sustaining above 8100 should be watched for first signal of decisive up moves.

As was told 100% same happened today and Nifty could not sustain above 8100 as well as whole day down moves were seen after strong gap up opening and today negative zone closing was at the lowest of the day. 

Although today closing near the lower levels of the day after slipping 88 points from higher levels but more than 5 hours trading with Mixed Patterns formations between 8070-8094 today therefore final view will be formed after consideration of following points:-

1- Next big moves will be seen on 6th or 9th Nov according to Bihar Assembly Elections Exit Poll results after 05:00 PM tomorrow. 
2- Next supports are between 7996-8016
3- Next resistances are between 8108-8152

As clear selling patterns formations between 8061-8100 yesterday therefore Nifty could not sustain above it despite strong Asian and European markets today but more than 5 hours trading with mixed Patterns within this range between 8070-8094 today therefore it is clear that Indian markets are not technically prepared for any side decisive moves and will trade as well as prepare for next trend between 7996-8152 tomorrow because above mentioned supports and resistances are lying within this range. 

As decisive big moves will be seen beyond 7996-8152 after Bihar Election results on 6th or 9th Nov therefore Nifty will remain sideways and prepare for it within this range tomorrow. Let clear technical positions formations develop then will be updated according to intraday charts patterns formations.  

Firstly Watch 8100 amid Blasting Asian Markets

Pre-open Outlook(04-11-2015)

Most Asian markets have blasted today morning and are trading from 1.2% to 2.1% up at this moment therefore sentiment boosted and strong opening will be seen in Indian markets also. Clear selling patterns formations between Selling between 8081-8100 yesterday and firstly sustaining above 8100 should be watched for first signal of decisive up moves.

Firstly Watch 7996 amid Some More Down Moves 

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(04-11-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (03-Nov-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8081-8100
2- Selling between 8061-8077
3- Whole day actual trading between 8032-8100

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told yesterday in "Rally will gain strong Momentum above 8152":-

1- some more up moves will be seen
2- Next resistances between 8108-8152
3 Nifty will remain sideways between 7996-8152 tomorrow 

Some more up moves were told yesterday and most of the time Nifty traded in positive zone as well as  closed in Green today. Next resistances between 8108-8152 were also told and whole day Nifty traded below it with fresh selling also within above mentioned ranges therefore expected that down moves below today lowest will be seen and once valid breaking down of yesterday lowest(7996) will mean high possibility of sharp fall.

As both lower levels good consolidation and equally good higher levels selling between 7996-8100 in last 2 sessions therefore expected that Nifty will trade within this range tomorrow and prepare for next decisive moves beyond this range. It seems that Indian markets are preparing for next big moves after Bihar Election results. Let Nifty prepare and complete technical positions form then next trend will be updated according to more intraday charts analysis of the coming sessions. 

As good selling today therefore some more down moves towards yesterday lowest(7996) will be seen tomorrow and firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched tomorrow.

Rally will gain strong Momentum above 8152

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(03-11-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (02-Nov-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 7996-8016(Immediate Supports)
2- Whole day actual trading between 7996-8060

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although lower levels consolidation between 7996-8016 and this range will be immediate support of Nifty also but last hours up moves were on the back of European markets and Dow's strong recovery from lower levels therefore follow up consolidation with sustaining above today lowest(7996) is must for beginning of fresh decisive rally.   

As Short Term oscillators are oversold and Bullish Hammer candle formation on today EOD chart therefore certainly indications of some more up moves but Short Term Trend reversal and strong momentum will be seen only after sustaining above next resistances between 8108-8152

Expected that some more up moves will be seen but Nifty will remain sideways between 7996-8152 tomorrow and follow up technical positions formations within this range will decide next decisive moves.