Finally 200-Day SMA will confirm next decisive moves

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Aug 13 to Aug 16,2019)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis(Corrective Waves)

Nifty-EOD Chart (09-Aug-2019):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-5 completion after life time top formation at 12103.00 on 03-06-2019 and corrective Wave-A of "ABC" correction beginning
2- Corrective Wave-A continuation with recent bottom formation at 10782.60 on 05-08-2019
3- Supports getting at lower levels
4- Testing of Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA(today at 11166)

Nifty-Previous 5 Sessions intraday charts analysis

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Aug 05 to Aug 09,2019):-

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Technical Patterns formation in last 5 Sessions intraday charts

1- Last 5 sessions trading with consolidation,selling and Mixed Patterns formation between 10097-11181 at higher levels on 09-08-2019 
2- 5 Sessions actual trading between 10783-11181 

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis(09-Aug-2019)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (09-Aug-2019):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 11086-11120
2- More than 3 hours slow up moves with intraday corrections
3- Volatility in last 2 hours between 11097-11160
4- Whole day actual trading between 11063-11181

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

As Waves structure of Nifty-EOD Chart,its Fibonacci Retracement levels,next supports and resistances have already been updated in previous weekly analysis and no material change in previous week therefore not being updated.

Nifty consolidated in previous week between 10783-10903 therefore it will be immediate supports of Nifty. As good consolidation developed at lower levels therefore Nifty crossed all the resistances of previous week and closed at highest level of the week. 

As it is the tendency of correction therefore during Pull Back Rally Nifty tested Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA(today at 11166) on 09-08-2019 and if Nifty sustains above it only then decisive up moves will be seen after Wave-B beginning confirmation and failing it will mean correction continuation below lowest(10782.60) of on going correction.

As more than 3 hours slow up moves with intraday corrections and volatility in last 2 hours between 11097-11160 on 09-08-2019 therefore some selling also can not be ruled out between 11097-11160 and firstly sustaining beyond this range should be watched in next week for the life of Previous week Pull back Rally and finally sustaining beyond 200-Day SMA(today at 11166) will be next decisive moves confirmations. 

Signal of Pull Back Rally continuation

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(09-08-2019)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (08-Aug-2019):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 10922-11058
2- Sharp up moves in last hour
3- Whole day actual trading between 10843-11058

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As good selling yesterday therefore we were expecting correction continuation and Nifty slipped also in first hour but signal of consolidation therefore we told following lines today at 10:16 AM in "Firstly watch 10843 for fresh down moves beginning":-

1- First 40 minutes Down moves of today were In Bullish Falling channel and it is first signal of consolidation 
2- firstly sustaining below today lowest(10843) should be watched for fresh down moves beginning confirmations 
3- Nifty got supports below it between 10784-10826 on 05-08-2019 also

As 5 hours fresh consolidation between 10922-11058 therefore sharp up moves were seen in last hour and Nifty closed at 5 sessions highest therefore it is a signal of Pull Back Rally continuation towards Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA(today at 11162)

Firstly watch 10843 for fresh down moves beginning

Post-open Outlook(08-08-2019)

As Dow jones's Futures was trading more than 75 points up and all the Asian markets were in Green and some were trading with good gains therefore positive opening of Indian markets but correction remained continued and Nifty slipped into negative zone also as well as traded at 10843 today.

First 40 minutes Down moves of today were In Bullish Falling channel and it is first signal of consolidation therefore firstly sustaining below today lowest(10843) should be watched for fresh down moves beginning confirmations because Nifty got supports below it between 10784-10826 on 05-08-2019 also.

Correction continuation towards next supports

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(08-08-2019)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (07-Aug-2019):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 10927-10975(Immediate Resistances)
2- Selling between 10892-10932(Immediate Resistances)
3- Whole day actual trading between 10836-10975

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis

As whole day selling firstly on Repo rate cutting expectations and  follow up selling on good news of 35 bps cut announcement therefore correction continuation will be seen towards next supports at 10784

Levels will confirm Post RBI Credit Policy decisive moves

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(07-08-2019)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (06-Aug-2019):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Sharp up in first minute after negative opening
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channels
4- Slipping from higher levels in last hour
5- Whole day actual trading between 10814-11018

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As Repo rate cut expectations from RBI Credit policy tomorrow therefore Bank Nifty recovered  strongly from lower levels resultant sharp up moves were seen in Nifty also in first minute after negative opening.

Although some consolidation in first sessions through Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel but after that most Up moves were in Bearish Rising Channels therefore Nifty slipped 90 points in last hour.

As lower levels supports above 10784 yesterday and selling through Up moves in Bearish Rising Channels below 11018 therefore Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for Post RBI Credit Policy moves within 10784-11018 and finally sustaining beyond this range will confirm post Policy decisive moves which may be according to its announcements also.

Down moves expectations

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(06-08-2019)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (05-Aug-2019):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Support between 10784-10826
2- Selling between 10827-10889
3- Whole day actual trading between 10784-10889

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

159 Points sharp down in first minute after weak opening and after that some supports also at lower levels but in last 3 hours good selling therefore down moves are expected because Indian markets are in Bear phase and until complete consolidation will not develop till then decisive up moves will not be seen.