Bull-Bear Match Final confirmation through Most Crucial 4908-4938

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(May 14 to May 18,2012)

Nifty-EOD Chart (11-May-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 5629.95 on 22-02-2012.
2- Corrective Wave-2 continuation. 
3- 55 Sessions correction in Falling Channel(Bullish Flag Formation)
4- Breaking down of Long Term Trend Decider 200-Day SMA.
5- Four days closing below 200-Day SMA. 
6- Breaking down of Falling Channel.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Impulsive Wave-1  rally started on 20-12-2011 after 13 months correction from 4531.15 and after  1098.80 Nifty Points rally its Corrective Wave-2 begun from 5629.95 on 22-02-2012. Correction is continued and its new low was formed at 4906.15 on 11-05-2012. Next supports of this rally are as follows:- 

1- 4810-4900
2- 4635-4663
3- 4602-4624
4- 4560-4590 

Fibonacci Retracement Levels of previous rally(4531-5629) are as follows:-

13.0%- 5486(Tested)
23.6%- 5369(Tested)
27.0%- 5332(Tested)
38.2%- 5209(Tested)
50.0%- 5080(Tested)
61.8%- 4950(Tested)
70.7%- 4852
76.4%- 4790
78.6%- 4765
88.6%- 4656

correction is continued and almost confirmation of Long Term trend turning down after 4 consecutive closing below 200-Day SMA as well as strong indicatons of entering into Bear markets. As most of the oscillators in EOD charts are oversold therefore Pull Back rally may be seen any day but until Nifty will not sustain above 200-Day SMA till then Bullish markets can not be considered.

Nifty traded most of the time and closed below 61.8%  retracement level(4950) on 11-05-2012 with intraday supports between 4908-4938 and firstly survival of this support range should be watched in the beginning of next week,its breaking down will mean testing of above mentioned supports and sustaining above 4938 will mean first and foremost requirement of complete consolidations for any decisive up moves because Nifty has to counter following resistances of on going 55 sessions correction:-

1- Resistance between 4995-5035
2- Resistance between 5070-5125
3- Resistance between 5190-5305
4- Resistance between 5318-5337
5- Resistance between 5357-5377
6- Resistance between 5418-5487
7- Resistance between 5588-5625

Latest support between 4908-4938 ia most crucial because markets got support between this range after most depressing negative IIp data therefore sustaining it beyond should be firstly watched in the beginning of next week. 

Bull-Bear Match Final confirmation will be through Most Crucial 4908-4938.Sustaining below 4908 will be Bear markets confirmation and sustaining above 4938 will be survival of up moves expectations.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 11-May-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 11-May-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 11-May-2012 1525.07 1366.51 158.56

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 11-May-2012 813.02 1056.31 -243.29

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(11-May-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed in Red.
2- Doji Candle Formation.
3- Sharp fall after negative IIP numbers but intraday support above 4900 and volatile market during last 3 hours.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.03
Nifty P/E Ratio(11-May-2012): 16.87

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances :  919
BSE Declines : 1852
NSE Advances :  426
NSE Declines : 1008

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4700 CE(May)- +11600(+7.22%)
Nifty- 4700 PE(May)- +494700(+12.41%)

Nifty- 4800 CE(May)- +94900(+13.93%)
Nifty- 4800 PE(May)- +903450(+16.13%)

Nifty- 4900 CE(May)- +1387100(+100.71%)
Nifty- 4900 PE(May)- +207400(+2.94%)

Nifty- 5000 CE(May)- +77500(+1.77%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(May)- -448450(-7.70%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(May)- +590900(+12.08%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(May)- -422850(-10.53%)

Nifty- 5200 CE(May)- +383450(+5.56%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(May)- -116700(+-5.71%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 4,928.90(-36.80 Points & -0.74%)
Sensex- closed at 16,292.98(-127.07 Points & -0.77% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 6,985.75(-77.55 Points & -1.10%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,395.38(-58.82 Points & -0.91%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 14-05-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5037
R2 5006
R1 4967
Avg 4936
S1 4897
S2 4866
S3 4827

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 4998     Trgt 2
H5 4982     Trgt 1
H4 4966     Long breakout
H3 4947     Go Short
H2 4940
H1 4934
L1 4921
L2 4915
L3 4908     Long
L4 4889     Short Breakout
L5 4873     Trgt 1
L6 4857     Trgt 2

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 14-05-2012

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 5180
R2 5118
R1 5024
Avg 4962
S1 4868
S2 4806
S3 4712

Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5087     Trgt 2
H5 5052     Trgt 1
H4 5016     Long breakout
H3 4973     Go Short
H2 4959
H1 4945
L1 4916
L2 4902
L3 4888     Long
L4 4845     Short Breakout
L5 4809     Trgt 1
L6 4774     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 14-05-2012

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 9768
R2 9639
R1 9509
Avg 9380
S1 9250
S2 9121
S3 8991

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9641     Trgt 2
H5 9581     Trgt 1
H4 9521     Long breakout
H3 9450     Go Short
H2 9426
H1 9402
L1 9355
L2 9331
L3 9307     Long
L4 9236     Short Breakout
L5 9176     Trgt 1
L6 9116     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(May 14 to May 18,2012)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 5285
R2 5205
R1 5066
Avg 4986
S1 4847
S2 4767
S3 4628

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 5147     Trgt 2
H5 5098     Trgt 1
H4 5048     Long breakout
H3 4988     Go Short
H2 4968
H1 4948
L1 4907
L2 4887
L3 4867     Long
L4 4807     Short Breakout
L5 4757     Trgt 1
L6 4708     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(May 14 to May 18,2012)

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 10410
R2 10167
R1 9782
Avg 9539
S1 9154
S2 8911
S3 8526

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 10032     Trgt 2
H5  9888     Trgt 1
H4  9743   Long breakout
H3  9570   Go Short
H2  9513
H1  9455
L1  9340
L2  9282
L3  9225    Long
L4  9052    Short Breakout
L5  8907    Trgt 1
L6  8763    Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(11-05-2012)

When Nifty was trading at 4920 at 12:40 PM today then following lines were told in Mid-session Outlook-2:-

1-intraday supports above 4900
2-bounce back may be seen
3-for cutting of general public stop losses.

As was told 100% same happened and:-

1- Nifty sustained above 4900.
2- Bounce back seen and Nifty made intraday top at 4976.25
3- Nifty again slipped to 4925 after cutting general public stop losses

Although intraday support above 4900 today but lot of technical requirements now for sustained up moves and follow up buying/selling in next week will decide the fate of 4900 supports survival.

Mid-session Outlook-2(11-05-2012)

Highly depressing news of negative IIP numbers but markets did not showed huge declines and it is a signal of intraday supports above 4900 therefore bounce back may be seen for cutting of general public stop losses.

Mid-session Outlook(11-05-2012)

March IIP @ -3.5%

Sentiment was already weak and unexpected negative IIP numbers energised Bears to drag down Indian markets.Correction is continued to test following supports at lower levels.

1- 4810-4900
2- 4635-4663
3- 4602-4624
4- 4560-4590 

Firstly watch most crucial 61.8% retracement level(4950)

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 11-05-2012

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (10-May-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Almost first 4 hours trading between between 5019-5036 with intraday selling between 5025-5036.
2- Last more than one hour trading between 4951-4985 with mixed intraday patterns. 
3- Whole day trading between 4951-5039

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA is today at 5106 and today closing was third consecutive day closing below it. Correction is continued and intraday selling was seen again seen below 200-Day SMA today therefore almost confirmation of Long Term Trend turning down. 

61.8% retracement level is at 4950 and today lowest is at 4950.30 as well as last more than one hour trading between 4951-4985 with mixed intraday patterns therefore sustaining beyond 4950 will be firstly watched tomorrow for the confirmation of;-

1- Deeper correction below 4950 or
2- Long Term Trend survival last hopes above 4950.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 10-May-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 10-May-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 10-May-2012 1916.25 1598.83 317.42

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 10-May-2012 1046.05 1189.58 -143.53

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(10-May-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Flat closing after slipping from higher levels.
2- Black Candle.
3- Firstly strong trading but moving down after opening of European markets.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio:1.10
Nifty P/E Ratio(10-May-2012):17.00

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1209
BSE Declines : 1592
NSE Advances :  595
NSE Declines :  836

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4800 CE(May)- +27650(+4.21%)
Nifty- 4800 PE(May)- +333450(+6.26%)

Nifty- 4900 CE(May)- +183150(+15.63%)
Nifty- 4900 PE(May)- +659700(+10.11%)

Nifty- 5000 CE(May)- +681500(+17.72%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(May)- +247050(+3.75%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(May)- +658800(+15.56%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(May)- -119350(-2.89%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 4,965.70(-9.10 Points & -0.18%)
Sensex- closed at 16,420.05(-59.53 Points & -0.36% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,063.30(+8.10 Points & +0.11%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,454.20(-15.76 Points & -0.24%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 11-05-2012

Levels

R3 5108
R2 5073
R1 5019
Avg 4984
S1 4930
S2 4895
S3 4841

Trading Strategy

H6 5054     Trgt 2
H5 5034     Trgt 1
H4 5013     Long breakout
H3 4989     Go Short
H2 4981
H1 4973
L1 4956
L2 4948
L3 4940     Long
L4 4916     Short Breakout
L5 4895     Trgt 1
L6 4875     Trgt 2

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 11-05-2012

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 5125
R2 5085
R1 5025
Avg 4985
S1 4925
S2 4885
S3 4825

Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5066     Trgt 2
H5 5043     Trgt 1
H4 5021     Long breakout
H3 4993     Go Short
H2 4984
H1 4975
L1 4956
L2 4947
L3 4938     Long
L4 4911     Short Breakout
L5 4888     Trgt 1
L6 4865     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 11-05-2012

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 9729
R2 9636
R1 9495
Avg 9402
S1 9261
S2 9168
S3 9027

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9589     Trgt 2
H5 9535     Trgt 1
H4 9482     Long breakout
H3 9418     Go Short
H2 9396
H1 9375
L1 9332
L2 9311
L3 9289     Long
L4 9225     Short Breakout
L5 9172     Trgt 1
L6 9118     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(10-05-2012)

Indian markets outperformed Asian markets and traded strong almost first 4 hours but tumbled after higher levels selling. Dow's Futures was more than 30 points up and European markets also opened positive but not Dow's Futures is more than 40 points down and all the European markets are trading in Red.

Although good selling today but Nifty got support at 4957 yesterday and Nifty is hovering it around after slipping below it today. Mixed intraday patterns seen during last more than one hour trading between 5951-5985 today therefore firstly this range break out should be watched for next moves confirmations. 

Mid-session Outlook-3(10-05-2012)

As confirmations were required therefore we told following line in Mid-session Outlook(10-05-2012)

"Just watch sustaining above 5015 today because that will be 1st indication decisive up moves"

Nifty got support at 4957 yesterday and slipping below it also can not be ruled out after watching higher levels selling today.

Mid-session Outlook-2(10-05-2012)

Almost 4 hours trading between between 5119-5136 with intraday selling confirmations at higher levels between 5125-5136. Market slipped from higher levels. Correction continuation and more down moves will be seen. 

Mid-session Outlook(10-05-2012)

When Dow Jones was trading more than 80 points down then Pull Back Rally was projected at 01:08 AM today and following topic was posted:-

"Pull Back Rally expectations amid France & Greece Elections triggered Global Markets crash" 

Indian markets are 1% up while All the Asian markets are flat to weak and proved our projections 100% accurate.

Just watch sustaining above 5015 today because that will be 1st indication decisive up moves

Pull Back Rally expectations amid France & Greece Elections triggered Global Markets crash

Technical Analysis and Research For 10-05-2012

Nifty-EOD Chart (09-May-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 54 Sessions correction in Falling Channel(Bullish Flag Formation)
2- Testing of 200-Day SMA in Previous months.
3- Forcefully breaking down and last 2 sessions closing below 200-Day SMA.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

Long term trend was up during 54 Sessions correction and Nifty could not slip below 200-Day SMA but France and Greece Elections results created that storm which shattered whole Global confidence and all the Global Stocks and Commodities markets crashed,resultant Indian markets also could not be spared and reacted in lines with Global markets and forcefully broken down 200-Day SMA.

Two day closing below 200-Day SMA and sustaining below it will be confirmation of Long term trend turning down.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (09-May-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5003-5015
2- Support between 4957-4982
3- Consolidation patterns formations in whole day intraday chart.
3- Whole day trading 4957-5015

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis

Sideways trading with lower levels supports and higher levels selling today and sustaining beyond today trading range should be  firstly watched tomorrow for next moves confirmation. As whole day intraday chart patterns are showing consolidation formations therefore breaking out possibilities above 5015 are high.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Correction continuation and most crucial 61.8% retracement(4950) has been almost completed after today lowest formation at 4956.45. Following 6 technocal points are showing correction completion indications and Pull Back Rally expectations:-

1- 61.8% retracement completion today.(most crucial retracemet level).
2- Short term oscillators are oversold now.
3- MACD:-  Distance in both lines therefore upmoves are required to converge both lines.
4- 54 Sessions correction in Falling Channel(Bullish Flag Formation).
5- Gravestone Doji Bullish Candle formation on 09-05-2012.
6- Consolidation patterns formations in whole day intraday chart on 09-05-2012.

Global markets nosedived after France and Greece election results and Dow Jones is trading more than 80 points down at this moment therefore cooling down and settling of depressed sentiment with global confidence building up is also required for any trend reversal and up moves.

France & Greece Elections triggered Global Markets crash but Indian markets are technically prepared for a Pull Back rally and it may be seen any day. As intraday Consolidation patterns formations seen between 4957-5015 on 09-05-2012 therefore sustaining it beyond should be firstly watched in the coming sessions with Pull Back Rally expectations.

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 01-May-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 01-May-2012 9999 8888 1111

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 01-May-2012 5555 3333 2222

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(09-May-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Gravestone Doji Bullish formation.
2- Benchmark Indices closed in Red.
3- Sideways trading but volatile within intraday range.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.06
Nifty P/E Ratio(09-May-2012): 17.03

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances :  933
BSE Declines : 1809
NSE Advances :  385
NSE Declines : 1046

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4800 CE(May)- -10200(-1.50%)
Nifty- 4800 PE(May)- +793700(+16.85%)

Nifty- 4900 CE(May)- +309850(+35.65%)
Nifty- 4900 PE(May)- +2131900(+46.19%)

Nifty- 5000 CE(May)- +803300(+25.72%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(May)- -105000(-1.57%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(May)- +473200(+12.25%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(May)- -160750(-3.74%)

Nifty- 5200 CE(May)- +462150(+7.42%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(May)- -169050(-7.260%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 4,974.80(-25.15 Points & -0.50%)
Sensex- closed at 16,479.58(-66.60 Points & -0.40% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,055.20(-77.70 Points & -1.09%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,469.96(-80.86 Points & -1.23%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 10-05-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5068
R2 5042
R1 5008
Avg 4982
S1 4948
S2 4922
S3 4888

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5034     Trgt 2
H5 5020     Trgt 1
H4 5007     Long breakout
H3 4990     Go Short
H2 4985
H1 4979
L1 4968
L2 4963
L3 4957     Long
L4 4941     Short Breakout
L5 4927     Trgt 1
L6 4913     Trgt 2

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 10-05-2012

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 5095
R2 5061
R1 5022
Avg 4988
S1 4949
S2 4915
S3 4876

Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5056     Trgt 2
H5 5039     Trgt 1
H4 5023     Long breakout
H3 5003     Go Short
H2 4996
H1 4989
L1 4976
L2 4969
L3 4962     Long
L4 4942     Short Breakout
L5 4926     Trgt 1
L6 4909     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 10-05-2012

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 9771
R2 9665
R1 9522
Avg 9416
S1 9273
S2 9167
S3 9024

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9629     Trgt 2
H5 9572     Trgt 1
H4 9515     Long breakout
H3 9447     Go Short
H2 9424
H1 9401
L1 9356
L2 9333
L3 9310     Long
L4 9242    Short Breakout
L5 9185     Trgt 1
L6 9128     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(09-05-2012)

Most of the time intraday volatility(between 4970-5015) on the back of up/down moves in Dow's Futures and breaking down of intraday lows also after Dow's Futures turning down to -81.

New low formations after breaking down of 4970 but without force therefore sustaining below today lowest(4957) is must for next down moves confirmations.

Correction is on and slipping below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA also therefore complete consolidation is required for any decisive up move.

Sideways trading with lower levels supports and higher levels selling between 4957-5015 today and firstly sustaining it beyond should be  watched tomorrow for next moves confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook-3(09-05-2012)

Again dancing on the tunes of Dow's Futures today which is now 55 points down and resustant Indian markets again sliiped from higher levels and trading little above today lower levels.

Global cues led high uncertainity therefore sustaining beyond mentioned range(4970-5015) should be firstly watched for next short term moves confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook-2(09-05-2012)

Dancing on the music of US Futures today. Firstly slipping after down moves in Dow's Futures and now up after recovery in  Dow's Futures which is now only 19 points down.

Sustaining beyond mentioned range(4970-5015) should be firstly watched for next next short term moves confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook(09-05-2012)

Sideways market today after yesterday blasting moves. As whole sentiment was bearish therefore minor recovery seen from intraday lower levels. Correction is on and almost confirmation of Long Term Trend turning down after resistance at 200-Day EMA yesterday.

Intraday selling formations seen at higher levels and Dow's Futures is also 65 points down therefore weakening of sentiment slipping from intraday higher levels.

Correction continuation and more down moves possiblity can not be ruled out. As minor supprt at lower levels and minor resistance at higher levels today therefore break out of 4970-5015 should be firstly watched for next short term moves confirmations.

Pre-open Outlook(09-05-2012)

Although US markets closed after some recovery from lower levels yesterday but Dow's Futures is more than 45 points down today and resultant all the Asian markets are in Red today morning. Dow's Futures was more than 70 points down almost whole day yesterday and in reaction European as well as Indian markets tumbled.

Adverse news flow from European countries and all the Global markets are reacting through sharp declines today. Sentiment is completely dampened therefore next supports have already been updated yesterday in "Melting Global Markets and Correction continuation". 

Mentioned next supports testing is possible but very short term  indicators are oversold therefore bounce back,volatility and minor Pull Back Rallis may also be seen after intraday supports at lower levels  but today closing will depend on Global cues also.

Let US and European markets stabilise and Global sentiment improve then up moves will be considered after complete consolidation and bottom/base formations. 

Melting Global Markets and Correction continuation

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (08-May-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- More than 5 hours trading between 5048-5118
2- Sharp fall in last 45 minutes after US Futures and European markets down moves.
3- Whole day trading between 4968-5118

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As Dow's Futures was more than 70 points down and European markets Futures were also in deep Red today morning therefore Indian and European markets opened weak and closed in deep Red after almost whole day negative zone trading.

Melting Global markets and Us markets are also more than 1.5% down today therefore Global sentiment is completely dampened and more weakness can not be ruled out in all the Global markets including Indian markets.

Sharp declines today after Resistance at 200-Day SMA and next supports are as follows:-

1- 4995-5068
2- 4810-4900
3- 4635-4663
4- 4602-4624
5- 4560-4590  

Correction is on and Global sentiment is depressing therefore above supports testing is possible. Let US and European markets stabilise and Global sentiment improve then up moves will be considered after consolidation and bottom/base formations.  

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 08-May-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 08-May-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 08-May-2012 1905.58 2304.56 -398.98

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 08-May-2012 1177.65 920.05 257.6

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(08-May-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Long Black Candle formation.
2- Benchmark Indices closed more than 2% down after sharp down moves in last hours.
3- All the Indices closed in Red and near lower levels of the day.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.94
Nifty P/E Ratio(08-May-2012):17.15

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1051
BSE Declines : 1696
NSE Advances :  432
NSE Declines :  991

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4800 CE(May)- +94900(+16.26%)
Nifty- 4800 PE(May)- +983400(+26.00%)

Nifty- 4900 CE(May)- +74800(+9.38%)
Nifty- 4900 PE(May)- +1092250(+29.95%)

Nifty- 5000 CE(May)- +1163700(+58.79%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(May)- +259200(+3.90%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(May)- +1100600(+38.84%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(May)- -291950(-6.33%)

Nifty- 5200 CE(May)- +1236450(+24.52%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(May)- +34550(+1.44%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 4,999.95(-114.20 Points & -2.23%)
Sensex- closed at 16,546.18(-366.53 Points & -2.17% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,132.90(-107.20 Points & -1.48%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,550.82(-57.53 Points & -0.87%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 09-05-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5220
R2 5169
R1 5084
Avg 5033
S1 4948
S2 4897
S3 4812

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5135     Trgt 2
H5 5104     Trgt 1
H4 5073     Long breakout
H3 5036     Go Short
H2 5023
H1 5011
L1 4986
L2 4974
L3 4961     Long
L4 4924     Short Breakout
L5 4893     Trgt 1
L6 4862     Trgt 2

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 09-05-2012

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 5230
R2 5178
R1 5091
Avg 5039
S1 4952
S2 4900
S3 4813

Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5144     Trgt 2
H5 5112     Trgt 1
H4 5081     Long breakout
H3 5043     Go Short
H2 5030
H1 5017
L1 4992
L2 4979
L3 4966     Long
L4 4928     Short Breakout
L5 4897     Trgt 1
L6 4865     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 09-05-2012

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 10242
R2 10078
R1 9817
Avg 9653
S1 9392
S2 9228
S3 8967

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9984     Trgt 2
H5 9886     Trgt 1
H4 9789     Long breakout
H3 9672     Go Short
H2 9633
H1 9594
L1 9517
L2 9478
L3 9439     Long
L4 9322     Short Breakout
L5 9225     Trgt 1
L6 9128     Trgt 2

Blog will be updated after 06:00 PM today.

Wave-3 Strong Rally First Confirmation above 200-Day SMA(5115)

Technical Analysis and Research For 08-05-2012

Nifty-EOD Chart (07-May-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-1 1098.80 Nifty Points rally in 45 sessions
2- Wave-2 52 Sessions correction in Falling Channel(Bullish Flag Formation)
3- Wave-2 Three Lower Tops and Three Lower Bottoms Formation during correction.
4- Wave-2 Fifth Wave formation during correction.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

As B3 was not completed therefore following lines were told in "Lower Tops and Lower Bottoms Formation In On Going Correction" on 15-04-2012

"Correction is on and its completion is required yet. As lower tops and lower bottoms formations in on going correction therefore new bottom B3 formations possibility below 5135.95 can not be ruled out in the coming week/weeks"

After B3 formation- 3 Lower Tops and 3 Lower Bottoms are as follows:-

T1(5629.95)
T2(5499.40)
T3(5378.75)
B1(5171.45)
B2(5135.95)
B3((completion indication at 4988.00 on 07-05-2012) 

Technical requirement of 'B3' formation has been completed after after slipping below 5135.95. Now 5th and final corrective Sub wave is continued during 52 Sessions correction and its completion indication is also seen after strong recovery from lower levels on 07-05-2012.

Wave-2 correction is in "Falling Channel(Bullish Flag Formation)" therefore it is confirm that impulsive Wave-3 will be seen after its completion.  As Sub Wave-5 is on and technical requirement of 'B3' formation has been completed in on going correction therefore now Indian markets are very much prepared for impulsive Wave-3 rally. Wave-3 can never be shorter than Wave-1 therefore more than Wave-1 gains will be seen after correction completion.

Strong indication of correction completion after more than 2% recovery from lower levels on 07-05-2012 and only its confirmation is required which will be after sustaining above following levels and resistances;-

1- 200-Day SMA(Today at 5115)
2- Resistance between 5190-5305
3- Resistance between 5318-5337
4- Resistance between 5357-5377

Although multiple resistances upto 5625 but sustaining above 5377 will be confirmation of strong Wave-3 rally.Expected that Nifty will not slip below 4988 and Wave-3 rally will be seen above 5115/5377/5625.

Pre-open Outlook(08-05-2012)

Strong rally yesterday after intraday consolidation patterns between 4990-5021 and intraday supports at lower levels between 4990-5000 as well as no indication of short covering or selling yesterday. No specific direction from Global markets and sentiment is also quiet today morning therefore flat opening and slipping during consolidation process is possible but expected that up moves will remain continued and finally positive closing will be seen.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 07-May-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 07-May-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 07-May-2012 2162.56 2793.37 -630.81

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 07-May-2012 1327.64 1053.87 273.77

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(07-May-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Long White Candle.
2- Strong recovery from lower levels and closing near the highs of the day.
3- Benchmark Indices closed in Green.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio:0.98
Nifty P/E Ratio(07-May-2012):17.54

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1398
BSE Declines : 1324
NSE Advances :  731
NSE Declines :  682

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5000 CE(May)- +818000(+70.44%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(May)- -9750(-0.15%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(May)- +384000(+15.21%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(May)- -537300(-10.44%)

Nifty- 5200 CE(May)- +846950(+18.80%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(May)- -626900(-20.74%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,114.15(+27.30 Points & +0.54%)
Sensex- closed at 16,912.71(+81.63 Points & +0.49% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,252.10(+24.65 Points & +0.34%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,608.35(+20.09 Points & +0.30%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 08-05-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5298
R2 5211
R1 5162
Avg 5075
S1 5026
S2 4939
S3 4890

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5253     Trgt 2
H5 5221     Trgt 1
H4 5188     Long breakout
H3 5151     Go Short
H2 5138
H1 5126
L1 5101
L2 5089
L3 5076     Long
L4 5039     Short Breakout
L5 5006     Trgt 1
L6 4974     Trgt 2

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 08-05-2012

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 5313
R2 5226
R1 5175
Avg 5088
S1 5037
S2 4950
S3 4899

Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5266     Trgt 2
H5 5233     Trgt 1
H4 5200     Long breakout
H3 5162     Go Short
H2 5150
H1 5137
L1 5112
L2 5087
L3 5099     Long
L4 5049     Short Breakout
L5 5016     Trgt 1
L6 4983     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 08-05-2012

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 10460
R2 10182
R1 10027
Avg 9749
S1 9594
S2 9316
S3 9161

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 10323     Trgt 2
H5 10216     Trgt 1
H4 10110     Long breakout
H3 9991     Go Short
H2 9951
H1 9911
L1 9832
L2 9792
L3 9752     Long
L4 9633     Short Breakout
L5 9527     Trgt 1
L6 9420     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(07-05-2012)

Strong recovery after 02:00PM today but When Indian markets were trading near the lower levels of today then following lines were told in Mid-session Outlook(07-05-2012):-

1- intraday consolidation patterns as well as intraday supports at lower levels between 4990-5000.
2- Certainly market require complete consolidation for any decisive up move and now further down moves will not be considered until Nifty will not sustain below 4990.
3- sustaining above 4990 will mean minimum Pull Back Rally.

Although whole global sentiment was most depressed but we projected consolidations and  minimum Pull Back Rally and it is being seen also after more than 125 points recovery of Nifty.

Firstly Watch sustaining beyond Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA(Today at 5117) for next trend confirmations amid crashing Global markets.

Mid-session Outlook(07-05-2012)

Dow's Futures is more than 100 points down and and most European markets opened more than 1.5% down today and all the Asian markets trading as well as closed in deep Red today.

Compltely dampened sentiment since morning today and Indian are also more than 1.5% down and Nifty is trading between 4990-5021 with intraday consolidation patterns as well as intraday supports at lower levels between 4990-5000. Certainly market require complete consolidation for any decisive up move and now further down moves will not be considered until Nifty will not sustain below 4990.

Foloow up consolidation in the coming hours with sustaining above 4990 will mean minimum Pull Back Rally.

Post-open Outlook(07-05-2012)

Gap down opening after crashing US and Asian markets and almost confirmation of Long Term Trend turning down. Correction continuation and now only Pull Back rally will be considered if market get intraday support at or above 61.8% retracement level(4950).