Rally continuation towards Life Time High after Bullish Pattern formations

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Jun 29 to Jul 03,2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (26-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015)(Correction beginning)
7- Wave-1(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
8- Wave-2(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
9- Wave-3(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
10- Wave-4(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
11- Wave-5(7940.30 on 12-06-2015)
12- Pull Back Rally continuation with recent top formation at 8423.15 on 25-06-2015 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

That Wave-1 which started on 28-08-2013 from 5118.85 completed at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 after 5 waves formation and correction started. Wave-5 of correction completed at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015 and now Pull Back Rally continuation with recent top formation at 8423.15 on 25-06-2015. 

Waves structure of on going 5 Waves correction

Nifty-EOD Chart (26-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 5 Waves correction beginning
2- Wave-1(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
3- Wave-2(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
4- Wave-3(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
5- Wave-4(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
6- Wave-5(7940.30 on 12-06-2015)
7- Pull Back Rally continuation with recent top formation at 8,250.80 on 19-06-2015 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

5 Waves of correction completed at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015 and Pull Back Rally is on but correction completion confirmation is still required because Nifty has to correct 4000 points points 18 months rally and as such price-wise or time-wise correction has not been seen yet.

Whole correction in Bullish Flag Pattern formation 

Nifty-EOD Chart (26-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-4 completion at 7961.35 on 17-12-2014 and Wave-5 beginning
2- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and Correction beginning
3- Corrective Wave-5 completion at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015 and Pull Back Rally beginning
4- Wave-5 completely retraced in correction after slipping below 7961.35  
5- Whole correction in Bullish Flag Pattern formation 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

As Wave-5 completely retraced and whole correction was in Bullish Flag Pattern formation therefore emergence of correction completion strong signal at the bottom of correction at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015.

Fall Trend line of correction broken out

Nifty-EOD Chart (26-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-4 completion at 7961.35 on 17-12-2014 and Wave-5 beginning
2- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and Correction beginning
3- Corrective Wave-5 completion at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015 and Pull Back Rally beginning
4- Pull Back Rally continuation with recent top formation at 8423.15 on 25-06-2015 
5- Last 6 sessions closing above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8204).
6- Fall Trend line of correction broken out and last 5 sessions closing above it. 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Fall Trend line of correction broken out and last 5 sessions closing above it as well as last 6 sessions closing above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8204) therefore strong signals of Long Term Trend turning up after correction completion. 

Last 4 sessions intraday charts Analysis

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jun 23 to Jun 26,2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 4 Sessions intraday charts

1- Selling between 8385-8398 on 23-06-2015
2- Selling between 8393-8421 on 24-06-2015
3- Consolidation between 8340-8372 on 25-06-2015
4- Consolidation between 8387-8405 on 25-06-2015
5- Consolidation between 8340-8380 on 26-06-2015
6- 4 Sessions actual trading between 8335-8423 

Conclusions from 4 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

Although first 2 sessions selling but last 2 sessions good consolidations also in last 4 sessions therefore valid break out of last 4 sessions will be next trend confirmations and should be firstly watched in next week but finally up moves above 4 sessions highest(8423) is expected because good consolidation seen in last 2 sessions.

Intra Day Chart Analysis(29-06-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (26-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 8340-8380(Immediate Supports)
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Whole day actual trading between 8340-8408

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis

As negative news regarding Greece crisis therefore firstly negative zone trading and slipping from intraday higher levels after 11 AM but in Bullish Falling Channel and lower levels good consolidation also therefore finally up moves are expected above day's highest(8408.55) despite whatsoever solution of Greece financial problems on 27th and 28th June 2015.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Trends of Nifty are as follows:-

1- Short Term Trend is up
2- Intermediate Term Trend is down which will be up above 8505.
3- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8204) broken out and last 6 sessions closing above it as well as once 3%(8440) moves above it will mean Long Term Trend turning up confirmations.

As Whole correction from 9119.20 to 7940.30 is in Bullish Flag Pattern formation and Falling Trend line of correction broken out as well as last 5 sessions closing above it therefore strong signals of fresh rally above life time high(9119.20) after that rally correction completion which started from 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and completed at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015.

Following confirmations are still required for 100% confirmation of correction completion:-

1- Valid break out of next resistances(8440-8486)
2- 3%(8440) Moves above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA breaking out level.
3- Intermediate Term Trend turning up through moving above 8505

Sustaining above next resistance range(8440-8486) will mean Long Term Trend turning up confirmation and in that situation Intermediate Term Trend will also be up above 8505 therefore only break out of 8505 should be watched in the coming week for fresh rally towards life time high(9119.20) after all trends turning up confirmations.

As Whole correction in Bullish Flag Pattern formation , Falling Trend line of correction also broken out in previous week and last 2 sessions good intraday  consolidations therefore expected that on going rally will remain continued above 8505 in the coming week but after fresh follow up consolidations because strong resistances are lying between 8440-8486  

Next support levels of Nifty will decide Greece Crisis impact on Indian markets.

Post-open Outlook(26-06-2015)

All the Global markets including Indian markets are reacting on Greece Crisis and trading in Red. Just click following topic Link and go through full news which was updated 11 hours before in bbc.com:- 

Greece debt talks: Crisis deepens amid deadlock

Indian markets are also down immediately after opening and Nifty tested following next supports:- 

Supports between 8340-8372

Finally sustaining beyond above support levels will decide Greece Crisis reaction on Indian markets therefore should be firstly watched now. As some supports between 8353-8361 today therefore sustaining it beyond will be first signal.

Fresh Rally Expectations from Next Week

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(26-06-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (25-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 8340-8372(Immediate Supports)
2- Consolidation between 8387-8405(Immediate Supports)
3- Whole day actual trading between 8340-8423

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As yesterday steep fall in last hour yesterday and uncertainty due to Greece Crisis therefore weak opening today but whole day good consolidation therefore emergence of fresh up moves possibility above today highest(8423). Last 2 sessions of all the global markets were Greece news led highly volatile and such volatility may be seen tomorrow also because final decision will come on next Saturday or Sunday.

Selling patterns between 8393-8421 yesterday and Nifty could not sustain above it today as well as closed near the lower levels of this range. Although good consolidation today but following resistances are lying above today closing:-

1- Resistances between 8393-8421
2- Resistances between 8440-8486(strong)

8 Sessions rally from 12-06-2015 to 23-06-2015 and its correction was seen yesterday but lower levels good consolidation and strong recovery was also seen today therefore if follow up consolidation develops tomorrow then Nifty will test above mentioned 2nd resistance as well as cross also.

As per our view Indian markets are well prepared for fresh rally and only negative news from Greece may create a hurdle but even though we are expecting that finally as such negative news will not come from Greece and fresh rally will be seen above 8486/8505 in next week.

Sideways Market Correction require Fresh Consolidation for its Completion

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(25-06-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (24-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- 4 Hours up moves in Bearish Rising Channel between 8393-8421 
2- Steep fall in last hour
3- Whole day actual trading between 8339-8421

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told yesterday in "View is Cautious after Higher Levels Selling Patterns Formations":-

1-As selling patterns formations at higher levels today therefore some down moves may be seen tomorrow
2-finally sustaining beyond 8335-8505 will decide those next moves

As was told 100% same happened and:-

1- Sharp down moves were seen in last hour today
2- Sustaining beyond 8335-8505 was told and Nifty could not slip below 8335 despite sharp fall today.

Following lines were told on 22-06-2015 in "Fresh Rally Expectations after follow up Consolidation between 8340-8505":-

Expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next big moves between 8340-8505 in the coming sessions and once sustaining beyond this range will decide:-

1- Correction continuation towards or below 7940.30.  
2- Fresh rally towards or above 9119.20. 

As good selling between 8393-8421 therefore this range will be immediate resistance and following levels will result today started down moves continuation:- 

1- 8340
2- 8200(200 Day EMA)

Last 15 Sessions trading between 7941-8421 with lower levels good consolidations and next resistances above 8421 are between 8440-8486 but therefore Nifty will remain sideways between 7941-8486 and finally valid break out of this range will decide next trend.

Correction of last 8 sessions rally was seen today and its continuation can not be ruled out tomorrow as well as until fresh consolidation will not develop till then its completion will not be considered.

Today started sideways market(7941-8486) correction is demanding fresh consolidation for its completion and till then its continuation will be expected towards next supports above 7941.. 

View is Cautious after Higher Levels Selling Patterns Formations

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(24-06-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (23-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8385-8398(Immediate Resistances)
2- Whole day actual trading between 8335-8398

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told today at 11:49 AM in "Mid-session Outlook(23-06-2015)":-

selling patterns formations between 8385-8398

As selling patterns developed between 8385-8398 in first 2 hours today therefore Nifty could not move above 8398 and follow up selling was again seen within 8385-8398 in last 3 hours today therefore this range is immediate Resistance and follow up consolidation is firstly required for fresh rally above today highest 8398.45.

Following lines were told yesterday in "Fresh Rally Expectations after follow up Consolidation between 8340-8505":-

Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next big moves between 8340-8505 in the coming sessions 

Nifty traded almost whole day within this mentioned range between 8335-8398 with higher levels selling therefore view is cautious because resistances are lying above today highest between 8440-8486. 

As selling patterns formations at higher levels today therefore some down moves may be seen tomorrow but finally sustaining beyond 8335-8505 will decide those next moves which have already been updated yesterday in "Fresh Rally Expectations after follow up Consolidation between 8340-8505"

Mid-session Outlook(23-06-2015)

Although Positive zone trading but higher levels selling patterns formations between 8385-8398 today therefore firstly follow up consolidation and sustaining above today highest is must for fresh rally because resistances are lying above today highest between 8440-8486.

Fresh Rally Expectations after follow up Consolidation between 8340-8505

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(23-06-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (22-Jun-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Whole day up moves in Broadening Pattern
2- Whole day actual trading between 8258-8369

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told on 20-06-2015 in "Pull back rally continuation towards Next Resistances":-

strong rally possibility towards following next resistances:- 

1- Resistances between 8355-8400
2- Resistances between 8440-8486(strong)

As was told 100% same happened today and Pull back rally remain continued towards above mentioned resistance and closed just below 1st resistance at 8353.10 after intraday highest formation within 1st resistance at 8369.45.  

As resistances are lying just above today highest and Very Short Term Indicators are overbought after today strong rally therefore follow up consolidation is firstly required tomorrow for fresh rally and sustaining above mentioned resistances(8486). 

As 11 Sessions trading range(7941-8191) broken out after lower levels good consolidations within this range and forcefully crossing of Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8197) in last 2 sessions therefore once sustaining above 2nd resistance(8440-8486) will mean:-

1- Strong possibility of correction completion at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015. 
2- Strong possibility of that rally correction completion which started from 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and completed at at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015.

Intermediate Term Trend will be up above 8505 and once sustaining above 2nd resistance(8440-8486) will mean all trends turning up confirmations therefore resultant fresh rally will be seen after above life time high(9119.20) after 5 waves correction completion confirmations.  

Expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next big moves between 8340-8505 in the coming sessions and once sustaining beyond this range will decide:-

1- Correction continuation towards or below 7940.30.  
2- Fresh rally towards or above 9119.20. 

As 11 Sessions trading range(7941-8191) forcefully broken out after lower levels good consolidations within this range therefore expected that Nifty will trade and sustain above 8505 as well as fresh rally will be seen towards and above 9119.20 after follow up consolidation between 8340-8505 in next 2/3 sessions.