Down ward moves expectations
towards next supports
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(May 21 to May 24,2024)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (17-May-2024):-
1- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 beginning from 16828.30 on 20-03-2023 after Corrective Wave-2 completion at this level.
2- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 completion at 20222.45 on 15-09-2023 and Wave-A of "ABC" correction beginning.
3- Wave-A of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 19333.60 on 04-10-2023.
4- Wave-B of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 19849.80 on 17-10-2023.
5- Corrective Wave-C of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 and impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 beginning.
6- Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 continuation with its recent high and new life time top formations at 22794.70 on 03-05-2024.
7- More than 2 months trading with 3 times new life time top formations and 3 times Short Term corrections between 21711-22794
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Waves structure)
Corrective Wave-2 completed at 16828.30 on 20-03-2023 and from this level Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 begun which completed at 20222.45 and Wave-A of "ABC" correction started from this level which completed at 19333.60 and Wave- B begun from this level. Wave-B completed at 19849.80 and from this level Wave-C begun which completed at 18837.80.
Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 started from 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 which is in continuation with its recent high and new life time top formations at 22794.70 on 03-05-2024 as well as no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts. As more than 2 months trading with 3 times new life time top formations and 3 times Short Term corrections also between 21711-22794 therefore finally sustaining beyond this range should be watched in the coming week/weeks for next bigger moves beginning confirmations.
Nifty-Weekly Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-Weekly Chart (17-May-2024):-
1- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling towards Over sold zone.
2- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 54.54 & %D(3)- 55.32.
3- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in positive zone.
4- MACD(26,12)- 342.21 & EXP(9)- 695.05 & Divergence- -352.84
Conclusions from Weekly chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Technical positions of Intermediate Term indicators are as follows;-
1- As in Weekly Stochastic indicator its %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling towards Over sold zone also therefore finally decisive downward moves are expected in the coming week/weeks.
2- As in Weekly MACD indicator its MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in positive zone therefore it will be understood that MACD is confirming Downward trend formations and resultant deeper correction beginning is expected in the coming week/weeks.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (17-May-2024):-
1- More than 3 months old Rising Channel Pattern formations and Nifty closed within Rising Channel Pattern in previous week.
2- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are rising towards Over bought zone.
3- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 89.34 & %D(3)- 78.44.
4- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in negative zone.
5- MACD(26,12)- -110.19 & EXP(9)- -49.11 & Divergence- -61.08
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
More than 3 months old Rising Channel Pattern formations and Nifty closed within Rising Channel Pattern in previous week therefore finally valid break out/down of its upper rising line or lower rising line should be watched for next bigger moves beginning confirmations.
1- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are rising towards Over bought zone therefore it will be understood that Short Term up moves are almost mature and let clear downward moves beginning signals develop through downward intersection and slipping below Overbought zone that decisive downward moves will be seen.
3- As in MACD indicator its MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in negative zone therefore it will be understood that this indicator has shown stronger signals of Downward Trend formations as well as finally higher possibility of downward moves beginning after downward trend formations.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(17-May-2024)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (17-May-2024):-
1- Up moves with downward corrections in first 2 hours.
2- More than 4 hours trading with selling patterns formations between 22442-22491.
3- Whole day actual trading between 22346-22502.
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although firstly slipping after positive opening last friday but up moves were seen with downward corrections in first 2 hours. As more than 4 hours trading was with selling patterns formations also therefore expected that firstly down moves will be seen towards last Friday lowest in the beginning of next week.
Conclusions
(After putting all studies together)
1- Long Term trend is up.
2- Intermediate Term trend is up.
3- Short Term Trend is up.
Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 continuation with its recent high and new life time top formations at 22794.70 on 03-05-2024 as well as no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts but:-
1- More than 2 months trading with 3 times new life time top formations and 3 times Short Term corrections also between 21711-22794 as well as Nifty has closed little above half way mark within this range therefore it will be understood that at present Nifty is not prepared for any side decisive moves beginning.
2- More than 3 months old Rising Channel Pattern formations and Nifty closed within Rising Channel Pattern in previous week.
Firstly Nifty will have to trade and prepare for next decisive moves beginning between 21711-22794 which will be done in next week. Finally sustaining this range and upper/lower rising line of Rising Channel Pattern should be watched in the coming week/weeks for next bigger moves beginning confirmations.
As Intermediate and Short Term indicators are also showing more possibility of Short Term correction beginning as well as last Friday intraday charts are also showing intraday selling patterns formations therefore firstly down ward moves are expected towards following next supports in the beginning of next week:-
1- 22349-22401
2- 22055-22154
3- 21827-21891
5- 21711-21791
4- 21653-21690
6- 21544-21628
Next resistances are as follows:-
1- 22442-22536
2- 22674-22702
3- 22733-22783
