Firstly up moves & finally 55-Day SMA at 18243 will confirm next trend
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Jan 09 to Jan 13,2023)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (06-Jan-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" completion at 15183.4 on 17-06-2022 and Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure beginning
2- Impulsive Wave-i of Wave-1 completion at 18096.2 on 15-09-2022.
3- Corrective Wave-ii of Wave-1 completion at 16747.7 on 30-09-2022.
4- Impulsive Wave-iii of Wave-1 completion at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022.
5- Corrective Wave-iv of Wave-1 continuation with recent bottom formation at 17774.30 on 26-12-2022
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Waves structure)
Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure begun from 15183.4 on 17-06-2022 and its impulsive Wave-iii completed at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022. Now corrective Wave-iv of Wave-1 is in continuation with recent bottom formation at 17774.30 on 26-12-2022 and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD and intraday charts.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (06-Jan-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Impulsive Wave-iii of Wave-1 completion at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022.
2- Corrective Wave-iv of Wave-1 continuation with recent bottom formation at 17774.30 on 26-12-2022
3- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling towards Over sold.
4- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 19.71 & %D(3)- 41.76.
5- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line upward and its both lines are rising in negative zone.
6- MACD(26,12)- -177.20 & EXP(9)- -253.55 & Divergence- 76.35
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Positions of weekly indicators are as follows:-
1- In Stochastic indicator %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling towards Over sold zone but little above Over sold zone therefore suggesting up moves beginning possibilities after some more down moves.
2- In MACD Its MACD line has intersected Average line upward and its both lines are rising in negative zone therefore showing upward trend formation indications.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (06-Jan-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
Averages:-
A- 5-Day SMA is today at 18064
B- 21-Day SMA is today at 18227
C- 55-Day SMA is today at 18243
D- 100-Day SMA is today at 17903
E- 200-Day SMA is today at 17257
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Averages)
As finally Nifty closed below Intermediate Term trend decider 55-Day SMA(18243) in the last 3 sessions after 7 sessions hovering it around and Nifty closed below 100-Day SMA(17903) also last Friday therefore high possibility of Intermediate Term trend turning down emerged which will mean minimum 3 Weeks to 3 months long correction. Although Long Term Trend is still intact because Nifty is well abone its decider 200-Day SMA but will be at stake after confirmation of Nifty sustaining below 55-Day SMA because in that situation deeper correction possibility will increase .
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Fibonacci retracement levels)
Nifty-EOD Chart (06-Jan-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-ii of Wave-1 completion at 16747.7 on 30-09-2022 and Impulsive Wave-iii of Wave-1 begun.
2- Impulsive Wave-iii of Wave-1 completion at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022
3- Fibonacci Retracement levels of Impulsive Wave-iii which started from 16747.7 and completed at 18887.6.
4- Fibonacci retracement levels(16747.7-18887.6) are as follows:-
13.0%- 18609
23.6%- 18382
27.0%- 18309
38.2%- 18070
50.0%- 17817
61.8%- 17565
70.7%- 17374
76.4%- 17252
78.6%- 17205
88.6%- 16991
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis(Fibonacci retracement levels)
Impulsive Wave-iii of Wave-1 begun after corrective Wave-ii of Wave-1 completion at 16747.7. Wave-iii of Wave-1 completed at 18887.6 and now its corrective Wave-iv of Wave-1 is in continuation with recent bottom formation at 17774.30 on 26-12-2022. As correction is on and no confirmation of its completion yet therefore above mentioned Fibonacci retracement levels of Wave-iii of Wave-1 should be watched one by one for the confirmations of on going correction continuation/completion.
As Long term trend decider 200-Day SMA is today at 17257 and 76.4% retracement levels is just below it at 17252 therefore this level becomes most crucial which should be watched carefully if correction remains continued up to these levels.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(06-Jan-2023)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (06-Jan-2023):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- Up moves after flat opening.
2- Down moves with upward corrections.
3- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel.
4- Last more than 2 hours consolidation between 17796-17879
5- Whole day actual trading between 17796-18047.
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although firstly up moves after flat opening but selling was seen through Down moves with upward corrections therefore Nifty slipped 251 points from intraday higher levels. As post 12 O' clock Down moves were in Bullish Falling Channel and after that consolidation between 17796-17879 in the last more than 2 hours therefore lower levels good intraday consolidation will be concluded and firstly up moves will be seen in the beginning of next week.
Conclusions
(After putting all studies together)
1- Short Term Trend is down.
2- Intermediate Term Trend is at stake and finally sustaining below its decider 55-Day SMA(today at 18243) will confirm it. its downward trend formations.
3- Long Term Trend is up.
Corrective Wave-iv of Wave-1 continuation and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD and intraday charts but lower levels good intraday consolidation was seen last Friday between 17796-17879 therefore firstly up moves will be seen in the beginning of coming week towards following next resistances:-
1- 17920-17947
2- 18010-18067
3- 18112-18153
4- 18216-18240
5- 18345-18387(Strong resistances)
Although firstly up moves will be seen in the beginning of coming week but if Nifty fails to cross above mentioned resistances and fresh down moves starts then firstly sustaining beyond next crucial 61.8% retracement level(17565) and after that 200-Day(17257) should be watched one by one for the confirmations of on going correction continuation/completion.
As Stochastic indicator is showing some more down moves possibilities but MACD is suggesting upward trend formation indications therefore finally decisive up moves will be expected after some more down moves towards following next supports;-
1- 17724-17765
2- 17655-17712
3- 17477-17591
4- 17381-17401(Gap support)
5- 17226-17374
As firstly up moves are expected in the beginning of coming week therefore sustaining beyond 55-Day SMA(18243) should be watched for the life and length of on going correction because it will decide next 3 weeks to next 3 months Intermediate Term Trend.
