Finally sustaining beyond 55-Day SMA will confirm next bigger moves
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly
Outlook(Apr 22 to Apr 27,2024)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (19-Apr-2024):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-C of previous Waves structure "ABC correction" completion at 15183.40 on 17-06-2022 and Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure beginning.
2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 18887.60 on 01-12-2022.
3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 16828.30 on 20-03-2023.
4- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 completion at 20222.45 on 15-09-2023 and Wave-A of "ABC" correction beginning.
7- Wave-A of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 19333.60 on 04-10-2023.
8- Wave-B of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 19849.80 on 17-10-2023.
9- Corrective Wave-C of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 and impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 beginning.
10- Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 continuation with its recent high and new life time top formations at 22775.70 on 10-04-2024.
11- Correction continuation with recent bottom formations at 21777.65 on 19-04-2024.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Waves structure)
Corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" of previous Waves structure completed at 15183.40 on 17-06-2022 and Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure started from this level which completed at 18887.60 on 01-12-2022. Corrective Wave-2 begun from this level which completed at 16828.30 on 20-03-2023 Impulsive Wave-3 started from this level.
Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 completed at 20222.45 on 15-09-2023 and Wave-A of "ABC" correction means corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 begun from this level. Wave-C of "ABC" correction means corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completed at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 and impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 begun. Although Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 is in continuation with its recent high and new life time top formations at 22775.70 on 10-04-2024 but correction started from this levels which is in continuation with recent bottom formations at 21777.65 on 19-04-2024.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (19-Apr-2024):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Rising Channel Pattern formations
2- Nifty is hovering around lower rising line of Rising Channel Pattern for the last 2 sessions.
3- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward in Over sold zone.
4- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 17.65 & %D(3)- 12.02.
5- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line downward in Positive zone.
6- MACD(26,12)- 157.92 & EXP(9)- 190.50 & Divergence- -32.58
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 in continuation with Rising Channel Pattern formations which started to develop 3 months before and Nifty was moving up within its both upper and lower rising lines since then. As Nifty hovered around lower rising line of this Rising Channel Pattern in last 2 sessions of previous week therefore firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched in next week for the life and length of previos week correction. Technical positions of Short Term indicators are as follows:-
1- As in Stochastic indicator its %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward in Over sold zone therefore it will be understood that this indicator has generated first signal of up moves beginning. Let its both lines to start upward moves above Over sold zone then Bullish moves will be seen.
3- As in MACD indicator its MACD line has intersected Average line downward in Positive zone therefore it will be understood that MACD has shown 1st signal of downward Trend formations. Let its both lines to start downward moves and to sustain in Negative Zone then Decisive down moves will be seen after Downward Trend formation confirmations.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (19-Apr-2024):-
Averages:-
1- 5-Day SMA is today at 22216
2- 21-Day SMA is today at 22276
3- 55-Day SMA is today at 22131
4- 100-Day SMA is today at 21729
5- 200-Day SMA is today at 20641
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Averages)
As Nifty has closed below Short Term Trend decider 21-Day SMA in the last 3 sessions therefore Short Term Trend has turned down but Intermediate Term Trend is at stake because Nifty hovered around its decider 55-Day SMA in last 2 sessions of previous week. Firstly sustaining beyond 55-Day SMA(today at 22131) should be watched in the coming week/weeks for Intermediate Term Trend confirmations because once its turning down confirmations will mean minimum 2 weeks to 3 months long correction continuation. As Nifty is well above Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA therefore it is up.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
19-Apr-2024)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (19-Apr-2024):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- Consolidation between 21778-21928
2- Up moves
3- Consolidation between 22005-22047
4- Sharp moves
5- Consolidation between 22098-22179
6- Whole day actual trading between 21778-22179
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As sentiment turned most depressed after Israel attack on Iran news therefore gap down and 134 points weaker opening was seen last Friday morning but lower levels almost 3 hours consolidation developed hence up moves were seen after 12:15 PM. Although so much negative mood but follow up consolidation developed in Mid sessions therefore after that sharp up moves were seen. As again follow up consolidation in last hours therefore it will be understood that whole day only consolidation patterns formations and no intraday selling patterns hence up moves will be seen in the beginning of next week.
Conclusions
(After putting all studies together)
1- Long Term trend is up.
2- Intermediate Term trend is at stake.
3- Short Term Trend is down.
Although Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 continuation and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts but Short Term correction continuation with recent bottom formations at 21777.65 and Nifty has corrected 998 points till last session during on going correction.
As Short Term indicators are not showing clear one sided decisive moves beginning confirm signals and Intermediate Term Trend is also at stake therefore firstly sustaining beyond its decider 55-Day SMA(today at 22131) should be watched in the coming week/weeks because that will generate next bigger moves after its Trend formation confirmations.
Firstly sustaining beyond following 2 next levels which are below Intermediate Term trend decider 55-Day SMA(today at 22131) should be watched one by one in the coming week/weeks for the life and length of on going correction:-
1- Lower rising line of Rising Channel Pattern
2- Lowest(21710.20) of previous Short Term correction of on going Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3.
Next supports below 55-Day SMA(today at 22131) are as follows:-
1- 21886-22027
2- 21795-21860
3- 21711-21791
4- 21653-21690
5- 21544-21628
Next resistances above 55-Day SMA(today at 22131) are as follows:-
1- 22186-22213
2- 22266-22427
3- 22516-22574
4- 22654-22726
5- 22735-22768
