Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 24-01-2012

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 5092
R2 5077
R1 5064
Avg 5049
S1 5036
S2 5021
S3 5008

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5079     Trgt 2
H5 5072     Trgt 1
H4 5066     Long breakout
H3 5058     Go Short
H2 5056
H1 5053
L1 5048
L2 5045
L3 5043     Long
L4 5035     Short Breakout
L5 5029     Trgt 1
L6 5022     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 24-01-2012

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 9827
R2 9743
R1 9638
Avg 9554
S1 9449
S2 9365
S3 9260

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9724     Trgt 2
H5 9681     Trgt 1
H4 9637     Long breakout
H3 9585     Go Short
H2 9568
H1 9551
L1 9516
L2 9499
L3 9482     Long
L4 9430     Short Breakout
L5 9386     Trgt 1
L6 9343     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(23-01-2012)

Whatsoever happened in Indian markets today all that was written in our Blog well before the opening of today market. We gave only 17 points range(5035-5053) and Nifty traded almost whole time within this range.

It is confirm that big moves will be seen after the break out of this range but very small trading range in news based market today but we shall try to understand from all the analytical tools and then will post our final conclusions and next possibilities before the opening of tomorrow market.

Mid-session Outlook-2(23-01-2012)

Following first indication range was given before the opening of today market in Weekly Outlook:-

1- 5035-5053(First Indication)

Our accuracy of levels can be understood from this fact that today first 4 hours trading range is 5030-5059 with selling indications at higher levels and lower levels supports also therefore today trading range break out and sustaining beyond will give next moves confirmations and will be firstly watched.

Mid-session Outlook(23-01-2012)

First indication range(5035-5053) was given in Weekly Outlook(Jan 23 to Jan 27, 2012) and Nifty traded most of the time within that range after almost flat opening today with selling indications at higher levels.

Full guidances have already been given in 6 topics in last 2 days. Just go through and get next moves confirmations one by one through sustaining beyond already mentioned ranges.

Rally continuation after Correction Completion

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook 

(Jan 23 to Jan 27, 2012)

321 Points rally in two previous weeks but following headlines of previous weekly Outlooks are live proofs of this fact that we clearly and with full conviction predicted only for Rally and Bullish market  well in advance:

1- Bulls Will Welcome In Next Week(Weekly- Jan 07 to Jan 13,2012)
2- Rally Continuation  in next week after Consolidations(Weekly- Jan 16 to Jan 20, 2012)

-------------------------

Following 5 topics have been posted for complete analysis of next week market therefore just click following topics and understand Indian markets with intraday, EOD and indicators charts analysis:-

1- Survival of Crucial Supports in 14 Months Bear Market
2- Daily Averages and Trends Analysis
3- Overbought Indicators demanding correction
4- Fibonacci Retracement Levels(4532-5400)
5- Firstly Confirmation through Selling Range Break Out

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

14 Months of correction and after that 108 months sideways market with trend Reversal Broadening Pattern therefore possibility of next rally from this range is strong. Following points are suggesting the possibility of correction:-

1- 61.8%(5068) retracement has been completed.
2- Nifty retraced from 5068 in previous week therefore sustaining beyond this level will be firstly watched.
3- Intraday charts showed selling patterns on 20-01-2012.

Short term indicators are in overbought zone and upper Band of Bollinger band has also being tested therefore short term correction is a demand before next up move. As good intraday selling and Hanging Man(Dragonfly Doji-Bearish) Candle Formation therefore correction is firstly expected in the beginning of next week. Ril news based huge volatility was seen last Friday therefore first of all sustaining beyond following 2 ranges will be seen for next moves confirmations:-

1- 5035-5053(First Indication)
2- 5004-5064(Confirmation)

Following points are suggesting for waiting before correction also:-

1- Indicators have not shown divergence yet.
2- All the Indicators are not in overbought zone.

Resistances at higher levels and supports are at lower levels therefore until Nifty will not sustain beyond any crucilal level till then next moves will not get confirmation.

Sustaining below 5004 will be correction confirmation and sustaining above 5064 will be confirmation of continuation of on going rally. As good intraday selling last Friday therefore correction of 533 points on going rally is expected. Although continuation of rally will be finally seen but correction possibility is very much alive in next week.

Overbought Indicators demanding correction

Daily Indicators Analysis

Nifty- 1 Year EOD Chart(20-Jan-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Conclusions from indicators analysis are as follows

1- Bollinger Band- Nifty traded continuously at the sharply rising Upper Band line and strongly signalling  the demand of correction.
2- MACD- MACD line is above Average line and both lines have diverged suufciently therefore indicating the demand converge through correction.
3- Slow Stochastic- Over bought and showing possibility of correction after previous week rally.
4- William %R- Over bought and showing possibility of correction after previous week rally.
5- ROC- RSI- Rising but not in over bought zone and no signal of divergence therefore showing scope for some more up moves before correction.
6- RSI- Rising but not in over bought zone and no signal of divergence therefore showing scope for some more up moves before correction.

Conclusions (After Putting All Indicators Together)

Indian markets are overbought and on the verge of correction. As divergence is not seen therefore signalling little more up moves possibility before beginning of correction.

Intraday selling indications on 20-Jan-2011 and overbought Indicators demanding correction also but divergence is not seen in indicators therefore follow up positions(buying/selling) in the beginning of coming week will be firstly watched for next decisive moves confirmations.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels(4532-5400)

Nifty-EOD Chart(20-Jan-2011)

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Fibonacci Retracement Levels(4532-5400)

13.0%-4544
23.6%-4736
27.0%-4766
38.2%-4863
50.0%-4966
61.8%-5068
70.7%-5145
76.4%-5195
78.6%-5214
88.6%-5301

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

61.8% Retracement Level is at 5068 and it was tested on 07-12-2012 as well as new bottom at 4532 was formed after retracement from this level. Retesting of same level with double top formation at same level on 20-Jan-2011 and completion of 61.8% retracement also.

61.8% Retracement Level is always most crucial and telling to wait and watch for intraday moves beyond this level therefore will be firstly analysed in the coming couple of sessions for the confirmation of following next moves:

1- Again small to deeper correction, or
2- Continuation of previous week rally with required correction at higher levels.

3 Topics for Next week Trading have already been updated and more topics will also be posted before the opening of next Monday markets.

Live Proofs of accurate Weekly Analysis and Predictions

321 Points rally in two previous weeks but following headlines of previous weekly Outlooks are live proofs of this fact that we clearly and with full conviction predicted only for Rally and Bullish market  well in advance:

1- Bulls Will Welcome In Next Week(Weekly- Jan 07 to Jan 13,2012)
2- Rally Continuation  in next week after Consolidations(Weekly- Jan 16 to Jan 20, 2012)

Anyone may click on topic and verify on his/her own

Firstly Confirmation through Selling Range Break Out

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 23-01-2012

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(20-Jan-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5035-5053
2- Huge volatility in last 75 minutes
3- Whole day trading between 5004-5064

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Intraday selling patterns between 5035-5053 therefore until Nifty will not sustain above 5053 till then any up move will not be considered. Sentiment was mixed and highly confusing due to Ril Buy Back news and below expectation results after market therefore huge volatility seen in last 75 minutes. As technical positions reverses sharply during such volatility and new intraday highs as well lows were also formed during this short periood therefore sustaining beyond today intraday range(5004-5064) will be next moves confirmations.

As good intraday selling therefore possibility of slipping below 5004 is also alive but huge volatility therefore firstly sustaining beyond today selling range(5035-5053) should be watched for confirmations.

Survival of Crucial Supports in 14 Months Bear Market

Nifty-EOD Chart(20-Jan-2011):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

1- Trend Reversal Broadening Pattern at the bottom of 14 months correction is intact.
2- Trend Reversal 108 Sessions sideways market between 4720-5229 is intact.
3- Begining of rally on 20-12-2011 from 4531.15.
4- Falling Trendline Correction from 5399 and its upward cross over.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Begining of rally on 20-12-2011 from 4531.15 after 14 Months correction and following points are showing indications of this long correction completion:-

1- Two above mentioned trend reversal patterns formations at the bottom of correction. As big 108 sessions patterns therefore its final break out moves will also be vast.
2- On going rally showed good strength after crossing and sustaining above falling Trendline.
3- On going rally commenced in the 13th month of correction and it is a Fibonacci number also therefore whole 14 months correction completion possibility in the 13th month is also alive

Daily Averages and Trends Analysis

Nifty-1 Year EOD Chart(20-Jan-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Conclusions

Trends & Averages(EMA-8,21,55,200)- Averages are as follows:

8-Day EMA is at-  4940
55-Day EMA is at- 4874
200-Day EMA is at-5131
200-Day SMA is at-5220

Short term trend is up and Intermediate term trend will be up above 5099. 8-Day EMA is rising as well as showed strength through moving above rising 55-Day EMA. First strong indication of long term trend turning up will be after moving above 200-Day EMA and confirmation will be after sustaining above 200-Day SMA because Nifty got stiff resistance at 200-Day SMA 3 times earlier.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 20-Jan-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 20-Jan-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 20-Jan-2012 3509.75 2689.91 819.84

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 20-Jan-2012 1221.68 1836.47 -614.79

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(20-Jan-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed positive with marginal gains.
2 -Hanging Man / Dragonfly Doji Candle Formation.
3- Mixed closing of all sectoral Indices.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.23
Nifty P/E Ratio(20-Jan-2012):18.14

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1361
BSE Declines : 1502
NSE Advances : 621
NSE Declines : 813

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4900 CE(Jan)- -472350(-14.20%)
Nifty- 4900 PE(Jan)- +635950(+10.12%)

Nifty- 5000 CE(Jan)- -357200(-6.71%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(Jan)- +1905050(+46.37%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(Jan)- -265300(-3.74%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(Jan)- +1367100(+127.15%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,048.60(+30.20 Points & +0.60%)
Sensex- closed at 16,739.01(+95.27 Points & +0.57%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 6,803.15(+57.10 Points & +0.85%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,277.27(+5.04 Points & +0.08%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 23-01-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5133
R2 5098
R1 5073
Avg 5038
S1 5013
S2 4978
S3 4953

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5108     Trgt 2
H5 5094     Trgt 1
H4 5081     Long breakout
H3 5064     Go Short
H2 5059
H1 5053
L1 5042
L2 5037
L3 5031     Long
L4 5015     Short Breakout
L5 5001     Trgt 1
L6 4987     Trgt 2

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 23-01-2012

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 5130
R2 5097
R1 5072
Avg 5039
S1 5014
S2 4981
S3 4956

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5105     Trgt 2
H5 5092     Trgt 1
H4 5078     Long breakout
H3 5062     Go Short
H2 5057
H1 5052
L1 5041
L2 5036
L3 5031     Long
L4 5015     Short Breakout
L5 5001     Trgt 1
L6 4988     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 23-01-2012

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 9888
R2 9713
R1 9601
Avg 9426
S1 9314
S2 9139
S3 9027


Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9784     Trgt 2
H5 9716     Trgt 1
H4 9647     Long breakout
H3 9568     Go Short
H2 9542
H1 9516
L1 9463
L2 9437
L3 9411     Long
L4 9332     Short Breakout
L5 9263     Trgt 1
L6 9195     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Jan 23 to Jan 27,2012)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 5369
R2 5216
R1 5132
Avg 4979
S1 4895
S2 4742
S3 4658

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy

H6 5295     Trgt 2
H5 5237     Trgt 1
H4 5178     Long breakout
H3 5113     Go Short
H2 5091
H1 5069
L1 5026
L2 5004
L3 4982     Long
L4 4917     Short Breakout
L5 4858     Trgt 1
L6 4800     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Jan 23 to Jan 27,2012)

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 10525
R2 10042
R1 9779
Avg 9296
S1 9033
S2 8550
S3 8287

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy

H6 10321     Trgt 2
H5 10123     Trgt 1
H4 9926     Long breakout
H3 9721     Go Short
H2 9652
H1 9584
L1 9447
L2 9379
L3 9310     Long
L4 9105     Short Breakout
L5 8908     Trgt 1
L6 8710     Trgt 2