View is Bullish

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Feb 17 to Feb 21,2014)

Nifty-EOD Chart (14-Feb-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Bottom formation at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and Wave-1 beginning
2- Wave-1(6142.50 on 19-09-2013)
3- Wave-2(5700.95 on 01-10-2013)
4- Wave-i of Wave-3(6342.95 on 03-11-2013)
5- Wave-ii of Wave-3(5972.45 on 13-11-2013)
6- Wave-iii of Wave-3(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
7- Wave-iv of Wave-3(6129.95 on 18-12-2013)
8- Wave-v of Wave-3 failed after 28 sessions trading between 6130-6358.
9- Higher bottom formation in previous week.

Nifty-EOD Chart (14-Feb-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 40 Sessions trading between 6130-6415 between 02-12-2013 and 28-01-2014.
2- 18 Sessions trading between 6130-6358 with triple top formations
3- Supports at 200-Day EMA in last 12 sessions.
4- 200-Day EMA(today at 6004)

Conclusions from EOD charts analysis 

Intermediate Term Trend is down,Short term is up and Long Term is sideways through hovering around its decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6004) in last 12 sessions.  Wave-v of Wave-3 failed after 28 sessions trading between 6130-6358 and sustaining above 6130 is must for maintaining of:-

1- Wave-v of Wave-3.
2- Whole waves structure formation from 5118.85(on 28-08-2013)
3- Intermediate and Long Trem Trend turning up confirmation.

Multiple resistances between 6130-6358 and strongest resistances are at 6358 because triple top formation there. As last 2 weekly candle formation is "Bullish Hammer" therefore fresh up moves beginning possibility strengthened in previous weeks and let Nifty sustain above 6130 then resistances will be updated.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (14-Feb-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- First 4 hours consolidation pattern formations
2- Support between 5985-5998
3- Consolidation pattern formations during up moves
4- Whole day actual trading between 5985-6056 

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As last hour up moves after lower levels consolidation therefore following line is being repeated which was told at 11:45 AM on 14-02-2014 in Mid-session Outlook(14-02-2014):-

"Intraday patterns of today are showing consolidation indications and sustaining above today lowest will mean Short Term up moves towards 6100"

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Pull Back Rally beginning with Weekly Bullish Hammer Candle formation in previous 2 weeks and until Nifty will not sustain below the lowest(5934) of previous couple of week till then next down moves will not be considered. As complete follow up consolidation is must for rally above 6358 therefore expected that coming week will be sideways between 5934-6358 and prepare for next big trend.

As last 2 weekly candle formation is "Bullish Hammer" therefore deeper down moves will not be immediately considered because following supports developed in previous couple of weeks:-

1- 5985-5998
2- 5966-5992
3- 5963-5975
4- 5934-5954

As following immediate resistances therefore follow up consolidation is must for the beginning of fresh rally and confirmation of sustaining above Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA.

1- 6090-6106
2- 6130-6180

Nifty closed at 6048 in previous week with supports up to 5934 and resistances up to 6180 therefore Nifty will remain sideways between 5934-6180 and prepare for next trend. As following positive technical points therefore view is Bullish and rally continuation is expected after follow up consolidations:-

1- Closing above Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6004)
2- Multiple supports developed in previous 2 weeks below 200-Day EMA.
3- Bullish Hammer candle formation in previous 2 weeks. 
4- Higher bottom formation in previous week

Mid-session Outlook(14-02-2014)

Intraday patterns of today are showing consolidation indications and sustaining above today lowest will mean Short Term up moves towards 6100.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(14-02-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (13-Feb-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Whole day down moves.
2- Whole day actual trading between 5991-6094

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Sentiment turned depressed today because:- 

1- All the Global markets were trading and closed in Red.
2- Dow's Futures continuously moved down and one time it slipped 80 points.
3- Historical uproar in Parliament today.

As higher levels good selling yesterday and sentiment was dampened since opening today therefore whole day only continuous down moves and testing of next supports below 6000. Next supports are as follows:-

1- 5966-5992
2- 5963-5975
3- 5934-5954

Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6003) will decide next big trend and until Nifty will not sustain below it till then view will be Bullish and rally expectation will remain alive despite today closing at lowest of the day after loosing 1.36% points. Long Term Trend turning down confirmation will be after sustaining below last support range(5934-5954) and firstly sustaining beyond 5934(last support)-6003(200-Day EMA) should be watched.

Indian markets are not trending but sideways between 5934-6106 and Nifty will firstly prepare within it for next trend as well as will take its own time in this process. Valid break out of this range will be next trend confirmation and should be watched.

Pre-closing Outlook(13-02-2014)

Sentiment turned depressed today after all the Global markets trading in Red and Dow's Futures 74 points down as well therefore whole day down moves. Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6003) will decide next trend and sustaining beyond it should be watched in the coming sessions for its confirmations. As multiple supports below it therefore Nifty will not sustain below it easily and following line should be kept in mind which was told in all 3 previous Outlooks:-

now Nifty will remain sideways between 5934-6106 and prepare for next trend,valid break out of this range will be next trend confirmation.

Mid-session Outlook(13-02-2014)

As good selling at higher levels therefore following lines were told both previous Outlooks yesterday:-

1- As higher levels selling and lower levels supports between 5934-6106 therefore Indian markets will be understood range bound and Nifty will firstly prepare for next trend within or near about this range

2- Confirm selling near about 6100 today and now Nifty will remain sideways between 5934-6106 and prepare for next trend,valid break out of this range will be next trend confirmation.

view is still Bullish and rally continuation is expected despite down moves since opening today. Next supports should be firstly watched now which have been updated yesterday. Let down moves stop and consolidation start then fresh up moves will be considered.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(13-02-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (12-Feb-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 6096-6106
2- Follow up selling between 6090-6096
3- Down Moves in Bullish Falling Channel in last more than 4 hours.
4- Whole day actual trading between 6078-6106

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although whole day positive zone trading after gap up opening but good selling at higher levels therefore down moves after follow up selling. As down moves were in Bullish Falling Channel and it is consolidation pattern therefore deeper down moves will not be immediately considered  and following supports should be watched:-

1- 6053-6065
2- 5966-5992
3- 5963-5975
4- 5934-5954

Immediate resistance ranges are as follows:-

1- 6090-6106(today selling)
2- 6086-6097(Previous resistance)

Long Term trend is up and lower levels above mentioned supports also therefore view is Bullish and rally continuation is still expected despite today closing near the lowest of today. As higher levels selling today therefore some down moves can not be ruled out in the coming session but complete selling is required for decisive down moves because multiple supports at lower levels and should be kept in mind that once sustaining above 6106 will mean strong rally.

As higher levels selling and lower levels supports between 5934-6106 therefore Indian markets will be understood range bound and Nifty will firstly prepare for next trend within or near about this range. Follow up moves and valid break out of this range will be next trend confirmation therefore  should be firstly watched in the coming sessions.

Mid-session Outlook(12-02-2014)

Confirm selling near about 6100 today and now Nifty will remain sideways between 5934-6106 and prepare for next trend,valid break out of this range will be next trend confirmation.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(12-02-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (11-Feb-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 6054-6065 
2- 2 Hours long down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Selling between 6068-6076
4- Whole day actual trading between 6054-6081

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although some selling but more than 2 hours down moves in Bullish Falling Channel which is consolidation patterns therefore emergence of rally continuation expectations above 6100 after crossing next resistance range(6086-6097).

As  selling also seen therefore some down moves can not be ruled out but rally continuation hopes are alive after follow up consolidation despite today closing near the lower levels of the day.

Pre-closing Outlook(11-02-2014)

Some up moves after lower levels supports and consolidation and then last more than 2 hours down moves in Bullish Falling Channel which is consolidation patterns as well therefore emergence of rally continuation expectations above 6100 after crossing next resistance range(6086-6097).

Mid-session Outlook(11-02-2014)

Firstly slipping after positive opening but lower levels intraday supports and consolidation between 6054-6065. As Consolidation and supports was seen within this range yesterday therefore its a sign of strength and sustaining above following levels will be strong signal of rally:-

1- 6064-6071(Selling between this range yesterday)
2- 6086-6097( Next Resistance range)

Again repeating that market takes its own complete time in the process of taking positions and once after its formation decisive up moves will start. As all financial markets are tend to react on news also therefore expected after finally rally will remain continued after follow up consolidations between 5934-6097 amid whatsoever news led sentiments.

Pre-open Outlook(11-02-2014)

All the Asian markets are in Green and Hang Seng is more than 1% up therefore sentiment is good and positive opening will be seen in Indian markets. As selling between 6064-6071 therefore complete consolidation is required for sustaining above 6071 and next resistance range(6059-6097). Some down moves are possible in consolidation process but finally rally continuation is expected after follow up consolidations between 5934-6097 amid whatsoever news led sentiments.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(11-02-2014)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (10-Feb-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Firstly Down Moves in Bullish Falling Channel in first hour.
2- Consolidation and supports between 6053-6060
3- Selling between 6064-6071
4- Whole day actual trading between 6047-6083

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although lower levels supports with consolidation pattern of Bullish Falling Channel but higher levels selling also between resistance ranges(6059-6097) therefore some down moves towards next supports(5992) will be seen. 

Indian markets are preparing for next trend and it will take its own time because both higher levels strong resistances and good supports at lower levels also. Long Term Trend is sideways and Nifty hovered around its decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6002) in previous week,until Nifty will not sustain below it till then Bullish markets hopes will remain alive and expected that finally rally will remain continued after follow up consolidations near about next supports range(5934-5992)

Mid-session Outlook-2(10-02-2014)

More than 4 hours 25 points narrow range sideways trading between 6052-6077 with lower levels supports and higher levels selling also therefore expected that Nifty will trade some more time within and near about this range and valid break out of this range will be beginning towards next trend. 

Mid-session Outlook(10-02-2014)

Technical positions of Nifty is as follows:-

1  Supports between 5934-5992.
2- Resistances between 6059-6097. 
3- Intermediate Term Trend is down and Long Term is sideways.

As multiple resistances developed between 6130-6358 during 40 sessions therefore this range broken down and market require complete time for decisive rally after good consolidations and supports in previous week below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6002).

Although Nifty slipped below 6059 but minor intraday support and consolidation seen between 6052-6062 and now trading above 6059 for the last 1 hour. Firstly sustaining beyond following ranmge should be watched for first indication and next big trend:-

1- 6059-6097
2- 5934-6097
3- 5934-6130

Expected that finally up moves will be seen after follow up consolidations within mentioned ranges but follow up consolidation is must because Intermediate Term Trend is down and Long Term is sideways.

Post-open Outlook(10-02-2014)

As Nifty is trading between resistance ranges(6059-6074 and 6086-6097) and require complete consolidations therefore slipped immediately after opening. Nifty will firstly prepare for next decisive moves between(6059-6097) and sustaining beyond this range should be watched for the beginning of next trend.

Expected that finally up moves will be seen after follow up consolidations within mentioned ranges but sustaining it beyond should be firstly watched because Intermediate Term Trend is down and Long Term Trend is sideways.

Bullish Week Ahead
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Feb 10 to Feb 14,2014)

Following lines were told on 02-02-2014 in Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook(Feb 03 to Feb 07,2014)

last hopes of Bulls are as follows:-

1- 200-Day EMA(today at 6000)
2- Bottom of Wave-ii of Wave-3(5972.45)

Slipping below above 2 levels can not be ruled out but sustaining below 6000/5972 is must for trend reversal and should be firstly watched in the coming sessions.

As was told same happened and Nifty slipped below 6000/5972 and last hope of Bulls remained alive  through not sustaining below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA and Weekly closing above it.

Nifty-EOD Chart (07-Feb-2014):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Bottom formation at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and Wave-1 beginning
2- Wave-1(6142.50 on 19-09-2013)
3- Wave-2(5700.95 on 01-10-2013)
4- Wave-i of Wave-3(6342.95 on 03-11-2013)
5- Wave-ii of Wave-3(5972.45 on 13-11-2013)
6- Wave-iii of Wave-3(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
7- Wave-iv of Wave-3(6129.95 on 18-12-2013)
8- Wave-v of Wave-3 failed after 28 sessions trading between 6130-6358.

Nifty-EOD Chart (07-Feb-2014):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 40 Sessions trading between 6130-6415 between 02-12-2013 and 28-01-2014.
2- 18 Sessions trading between 6130-6358 with triple top formations
3- Supports at 200-Day EMA in last 7 sessions.
4- 200-Day EMA(today at 6002)

Conclusions from EOD charts analysis 

Intermediate Trem Trend is down,Short term is up and Long Term is sideways through hovering around its decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6002) in previous week.  Wave-v of Wave-3 failed after 28 sessions trading between 6130-6358 and sustaining above 6130 is must for maintaining of:-

1- Wave-v of Wave-3.
2- Whole waves structure formation from 5118.85(on 28-08-2013)
3- Intermediate and Long Trem Trend turning up

Multiple resistances between 6130-6358 and strongest resistances are at 6158 because triple top formation there. Let Nifty sustain above 6130 then resistances will be updated.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jan 31 to Feb 07,2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 6 Sessions intraday charts

1- Selling between 6086-6097 on 31-01-2014
2- Selling between 6059-6074 on 03-02-2014
3- Supports and consolidation between 5934-5954 on 04-02-2014
4- Consolidation and supports between 5963-5975 on 05-02-2014
6- Consolidation between 5966-5992 06-02-2014 
7- Intraday volatility with lower levels supports and consolidation but higher levels selling also on 07-02-2014 
8- 6 Sessions actual trading between 5934-6097 

Conclusions from 6 Sessions intra day chart analysis

Firstly slipping after higher levels selling but lower levels good supports and consolidation also in 6 Previous sessions therefore sustaining beyond 6 previous sessions range(5934-6097) will be next trend strong indication.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (07-Feb-2014):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling at higher levels.
2- Consolidation patterns of Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel formations
3- Supports at lower levels between 6031-6048
4- Whole day actual trading between 6031-6079

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Volatile day with lower levels supports and consolidation patterns formations but higher levels selling also therefore follow up trading positions and sustaining beyond intraday trading range(6031-6079) should also be firstly watched in the beginning of next week for next trend first indication.  

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Although Nifty slipped below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6002) but nicely consolidated and got good supports below it as well therefore firstly up moves are expected in the coming week and sustaining above following resistances will be beginning of fresh rally:-

1- Resistance range(6059-6074)
2- Resistance range(6086-6097)

Pull Back Rally beginning with Weekly Bullish Hammer Candle formation in previous week and until Nifty will not sustain below the lowest(5934) of previous week till then next down moves will not be considered. As complete follow up consolidation is must for rally above 6358 therefore expected that coming week will be sideways between 5934-6358 and prepare for next big trend because Indian markets have to understand the implications of following 2 contradictory happenings:-

1- Tapering of QE3 by $10 billion per month
2- Narendrea Modi clear victory in Lok Sabha Elections

Narendrea Modi clear victory will mean strong rally and its possibilities are increasing, its happening will mean strong rally above all time high but implications of QE3 tapering has to be seen and understood also.

Finally Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6002) and Bullish Waves structure saved in previous week therefore expected that Indian markets will remain Bullish in next week.

Pre-closing Outlook(07-02-2014)

Now Indian markets are range bound between 5934-6097 and follow up moves between 5992-6059 and sustaining it beyond should also be firstly watched for next trend first indications.

Nifty slipped below fast after selling below 6059 but immediate supports also seen at 6037 today. Sustained rally above 6100 is still expected despite sharp fall and markets will take its complete time for consolidations.

Mid-session Outlook-3(07-02-2014)

As follow up selling seen below 6059 today therefore down moves towards and below next supports(5992) will be seen.

Mid-session Outlook-2(07-02-2014)

As higher levels resistances therefore following line was told in both previous Outlooks:-

Market will take its complete time

Sharp fall seen after some selling in last 1 hours because selling developed in mentioned resistance range. Strong supports developed at lower levels in last 3 sessions and now Indian markets will be understood range bound between 5934-6097.

Sustained rally above 6100 is still expected despite sharp fall and markets will take its complete time for consolidations but follow up moves between 5992-6059 should also be firstly watched for next trend confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook(07-02-2014)

Although Nifty slipped after opening and now trading near the lower levels of today but today intraday charts have not shown as such selling patterns as well today first 2 hours down moves may be for consolidations because resistances up to 6097.

Sustained rally above 6100 is still expected but markets will take its complete time for consolidations.

Post-open Outlook(07-02-2014)

Following lines were told yesterday in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(07-02-2014)

Today started rally continuation is expected in the coming sessions and correction completion strong indication will be after sustaining above next immediate resistance range(6059-6074)

Nifty traded most time between mentioned immediate resistance range(6059-6074) after gap up strong opening and slipped below it also but sustaining beyond this range should be firstly watched now. Market will take its complete time for any sustained rally above 6100 because of following 2 resistances:-

1- Resistance range(6059-6074)
2- Resistance range(6086-6097)