Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Feb 17 to Feb 21,2014)
Nifty-EOD Chart (14-Feb-2014):- |
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1- Bottom formation at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and Wave-1 beginning
2- Wave-1(6142.50 on 19-09-2013)
3- Wave-2(5700.95 on 01-10-2013)
4- Wave-i of Wave-3(6342.95 on 03-11-2013)
5- Wave-ii of Wave-3(5972.45 on 13-11-2013)
6- Wave-iii of Wave-3(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
7- Wave-iv of Wave-3(6129.95 on 18-12-2013)
8- Wave-v of Wave-3 failed after 28 sessions trading between 6130-6358.
9- Higher bottom formation in previous week.
Nifty-EOD Chart (14-Feb-2014):-
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1- 40 Sessions trading between 6130-6415 between 02-12-2013 and 28-01-2014.
2- 18 Sessions trading between 6130-6358 with triple top formations
3- Supports at 200-Day EMA in last 12 sessions.
4- 200-Day EMA(today at 6004)
Conclusions from EOD charts analysis
Intermediate Term Trend is down,Short term is up and Long Term is sideways through hovering around its decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6004) in last 12 sessions. Wave-v of Wave-3 failed after 28 sessions trading between 6130-6358 and sustaining above 6130 is must for maintaining of:-
1- Wave-v of Wave-3.
2- Whole waves structure formation from 5118.85(on 28-08-2013)
3- Intermediate and Long Trem Trend turning up confirmation.
Multiple resistances between 6130-6358 and strongest resistances are at 6358 because triple top formation there. As last 2 weekly candle formation is "Bullish Hammer" therefore fresh up moves beginning possibility strengthened in previous weeks and let Nifty sustain above 6130 then resistances will be updated.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (14-Feb-2014):-
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1- First 4 hours consolidation pattern formations
2- Support between 5985-5998
3- Consolidation pattern formations during up moves
4- Whole day actual trading between 5985-6056
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As last hour up moves after lower levels consolidation therefore following line is being repeated which was told at 11:45 AM on 14-02-2014 in Mid-session Outlook(14-02-2014):-
"Intraday patterns of today are showing consolidation indications and sustaining above today lowest will mean Short Term up moves towards 6100"
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Pull Back Rally beginning with Weekly Bullish Hammer Candle formation in previous 2 weeks and until Nifty will not sustain below the lowest(5934) of previous couple of week till then next down moves will not be considered. As complete follow up consolidation is must for rally above 6358 therefore expected that coming week will be sideways between 5934-6358 and prepare for next big trend.
As last 2 weekly candle formation is "Bullish Hammer" therefore deeper down moves will not be immediately considered because following supports developed in previous couple of weeks:-
1- 5985-5998
2- 5966-5992
3- 5963-5975
4- 5934-5954
As following immediate resistances therefore follow up consolidation is must for the beginning of fresh rally and confirmation of sustaining above Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA.
1- 6090-6106
2- 6130-6180
Nifty closed at 6048 in previous week with supports up to 5934 and resistances up to 6180 therefore Nifty will remain sideways between 5934-6180 and prepare for next trend. As following positive technical points therefore view is Bullish and rally continuation is expected after follow up consolidations:-
1- Closing above Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6004)
2- Multiple supports developed in previous 2 weeks below 200-Day EMA.
3- Bullish Hammer candle formation in previous 2 weeks.
4- Higher bottom formation in previous week