Bullish Week Ahead
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Feb 10 to Feb 14,2014)
Following lines were told on 02-02-2014 in Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook(Feb 03 to Feb 07,2014)
last hopes of Bulls are as follows:-
1- 200-Day EMA(today at 6000)
2- Bottom of Wave-ii of Wave-3(5972.45)
Slipping below above 2 levels can not be ruled out but sustaining below 6000/5972 is must for trend reversal and should be firstly watched in the coming sessions.
As was told same happened and Nifty slipped below 6000/5972 and last hope of Bulls remained alive through not sustaining below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA and Weekly closing above it.
Nifty-EOD Chart (07-Feb-2014):-
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1- Bottom formation at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and Wave-1 beginning
2- Wave-1(6142.50 on 19-09-2013)
3- Wave-2(5700.95 on 01-10-2013)
4- Wave-i of Wave-3(6342.95 on 03-11-2013)
5- Wave-ii of Wave-3(5972.45 on 13-11-2013)
6- Wave-iii of Wave-3(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
7- Wave-iv of Wave-3(6129.95 on 18-12-2013)
8- Wave-v of Wave-3 failed after 28 sessions trading between 6130-6358.
Nifty-EOD Chart (07-Feb-2014):-
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1- 40 Sessions trading between 6130-6415 between 02-12-2013 and 28-01-2014.
2- 18 Sessions trading between 6130-6358 with triple top formations
3- Supports at 200-Day EMA in last 7 sessions.
4- 200-Day EMA(today at 6002)
Conclusions from EOD charts analysis
Intermediate Trem Trend is down,Short term is up and Long Term is sideways through hovering around its decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6002) in previous week. Wave-v of Wave-3 failed after 28 sessions trading between 6130-6358 and sustaining above 6130 is must for maintaining of:-
1- Wave-v of Wave-3.
2- Whole waves structure formation from 5118.85(on 28-08-2013)
3- Intermediate and Long Trem Trend turning up
Multiple resistances between 6130-6358 and strongest resistances are at 6158 because triple top formation there. Let Nifty sustain above 6130 then resistances will be updated.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jan 31 to Feb 07,2014):-
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1- Selling between 6086-6097 on 31-01-2014
2- Selling between 6059-6074 on 03-02-2014
3- Supports and consolidation between 5934-5954 on 04-02-2014
4- Consolidation and supports between 5963-5975 on 05-02-2014
6- Consolidation between 5966-5992 06-02-2014
7- Intraday volatility with lower levels supports and consolidation but higher levels selling also on 07-02-2014
8- 6 Sessions actual trading between 5934-6097
Conclusions from 6 Sessions intra day chart analysis
Firstly slipping after higher levels selling but lower levels good supports and consolidation also in 6 Previous sessions therefore sustaining beyond 6 previous sessions range(5934-6097) will be next trend strong indication.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (07-Feb-2014):-
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1- Selling at higher levels.
2- Consolidation patterns of Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel formations
3- Supports at lower levels between 6031-6048
4- Whole day actual trading between 6031-6079
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Volatile day with lower levels supports and consolidation patterns formations but higher levels selling also therefore follow up trading positions and sustaining beyond intraday trading range(6031-6079) should also be firstly watched in the beginning of next week for next trend first indication.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Although Nifty slipped below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6002) but nicely consolidated and got good supports below it as well therefore firstly up moves are expected in the coming week and sustaining above following resistances will be beginning of fresh rally:-
1- Resistance range(6059-6074)
2- Resistance range(6086-6097)
Pull Back Rally beginning with Weekly Bullish Hammer Candle formation in previous week and until Nifty will not sustain below the lowest(5934) of previous week till then next down moves will not be considered. As complete follow up consolidation is must for rally above 6358 therefore expected that coming week will be sideways between 5934-6358 and prepare for next big trend because Indian markets have to understand the implications of following 2 contradictory happenings:-
1- Tapering of QE3 by $10 billion per month
2- Narendrea Modi clear victory in Lok Sabha Elections
Narendrea Modi clear victory will mean strong rally and its possibilities are increasing, its happening will mean strong rally above all time high but implications of QE3 tapering has to be seen and understood also.
Finally Long Term Trend decider 200-Day EMA(today at 6002) and Bullish Waves structure saved in previous week therefore expected that Indian markets will remain Bullish in next week.