Levels will confirm next big moves amid firstly Pull Back rally possibility
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Nov 01 to Nov 05,2021)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (29-Oct-2021):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-C completion and Impulsive Wave-1 beginning from 7511.10 on 24-03-2020
2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 11794.30 on 31-08-2020
3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 10790.20 on 24-09-2020
4- Impulsive Wave-3 completion at 15431.8 on 16-02-2021
5- Corrective Wave-4 completion at 14151.4 on 22-04-2021
6- Impulsive Wave-5 completion indication after recent high and new life time top formation at 18604.50 on 19-10-2021
7- Short Term correction continuation with recent bottom formations at 17613.10 on 29-10-2021
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Waves structure)
Following topic of "maximum target of Nifty at 18793.00" were posted:-
1- On 16-10-2021 we posted this topic- "Remain cautious because maximum target of Nifty is at 18793.00"
2- On 25-09-2021 we posted this topic- "Wave-5 Rally continuation towards its maximum target at 18793"
As Nifty could not move above 18793.00 and slipped 991 Points till last Friday in last 9 sessions after life time top formation at 18604.50 on 19-10-2021 therefore as per above given Nifty waves structure indications of Impulsive Wave-5 completion.
Confirmation of Wave 5 completion at 18604.50 will mean correction beginning of whole that rally which started from 7511.10 on 24-03-2020 and gained 11093.40 Points in almost 19 months after life time top formation at 18604.50.
Let Wave 5 completion confirmation come then "ABC correction" will be considered as per Elliott Waves theory.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages,Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (29-Oct-2021):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Impulsive Wave-5 completion indiction after recent high and new life time top formation at 18604.50 on 19-10-2021
2- Short Term correction continuation with recent bottom formations at 17613.10 on 29-10-2021
2-Averages
A- 5-Day SMA is today at 18026
B- 21-Day SMA is today at 18001
B- 55-Day SMA is today at 17466
3- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling towards Over sold zone.
4- Stochastic- %K(5) is at 25.66 & %D(3) is at 39.04.
5- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line downward. Its MACD line is moving down in positive zone while its Average line has turned flat.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Averages,Stochastic & MACD)
As last 9 sessions Short Term correction therefore Short Term indicators have started to show clear weakness signals through downward intersection of both Stochastic and MACD.In this manner MACD is showing downward trend formation but both lines of Stochastic are just above Oversold zone hence it is suggesting a Pull Back Rally possibility in next week.
Another weakness signal has come from both Short Term Averages(5 and 21-Day SMA) after last 2 sessions closing below these 2 Averages. As Nifty is above intermediate Term Trend decider(55-Day SMA) therefore it is still up.
Nifty-Last 20 Sessions
intraday charts analysis
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Oct 01 to Oct 29,2021):-
Technical Patterns formation in last 20 Sessions intraday charts
1- Selling(Resistances) in last 20 Sessions are as follows:-
A- 18289-18334
S- 18379-18458
C- 18548-18604
2- Consolidation(Supports) in last 20 Sessions are as follows:-
A- 17616-17763
B- 17641-17704
C- 17453-17550
3- Last 20 sessions trading between 17453-18604
Conclusions from 20 Sessions
intra day chart analysis
Last 20 sessions of Oct 2021 trading was between 17453-18604 with above mentioned supports and resistances. As consolidation was seen within above mentioned 2nd supports last Friday therefore Up moves are firstly expected in the beginning of next week towards above mentioned resistances and finally sustaining it beyond will confirm next big moves after last more than 20 sessions trading range break out/down confirmations.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(29-Oct-2021)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (29-Oct-2021):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- 219 Points sharp fall in first 5 minutes after weaker opening
2- 300 Points sharp up
3- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
4- Consolidation between 17616-17763(immediate supports)
5- Whole day actual trading between 17614-17915
Conclusions from
intra day chart analysis
Huge volatility in first 2 hours last Friday because firstly 219 points sharp fall in first 5 minutes and after that 300 Points sharp up moves developed.
As Mid-session Down moves were in Bullish Falling Channel and after that lower levels consolidation was also seen between 17616-17763 in last 2 hours therefore up moves are expected towards/above last Friday highest(17915) in the beginning of next week.
Conclusions
(After putting all studies together)
1- Long Term Trend is up.
2- Intermediate Term Trend is still up.
3- Short Term Trend is down.
As per above given Nifty Waves structure maximum target of Nifty is at 18793.00 and Nifty slipped 991 Points till last Friday in last 9 sessions after life time top formation at 18604.50 on 19-10-2021 therefore emergence of Waves structure validity signals and its confirmation will be as per following developments one by one in the coming weeks/months:-
1- Its first signal will be after sustaining below last 20 sessions trading lowest(17453). As Intermediate Term Trend decider 55-Day SMA is also just above it is at 17466 therefore Intermediate Term Trend will also be down below 17453 which will mean correction continuation from 3 weeks to 3 months.
2- Its 2nd and last confirmation as well as deeper correction confirmation also will be after sustaining below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA,which is today at 15773.
As some lower levels consolidation was seen last Friday and both lines of Short Term Indicator Stochastic are also just above Oversold zone therefore emergence of Pull Back rally possibility in the beginning of next week but finally sustaining beyond last 20 sessions trading range(17453-18604) will confirm following next big moves therefore it should also be watched in the coming week/weeks:-
1- Below 17453 will mean decisive down moves beginning and deeper correction possibility because it will generate strong signals of Impulsive Wave-5 completion at 18604.50 and after this emergence of "ABC" correction possibility of 19 months rally gaining 11093.40 Points between 7511.10-18604.50.
2- Above 18604 will mean rally continuation after Short Term correction completion in sideways market between 17453-18604 and in this situation moving above 18793 should also be watched because in that situiation Waves will also have to be recounted as per Elliott Wave theory principles.