Remain cautious because maximum target of Nifty is at 18793.00
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly
Outlook(Oct 18 to Oct 22,2021)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart(14-Oct-2021):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-C completion and Impulsive Wave-1 beginning from 7511.10 on 24-03-2020
2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 11794.30 on 31-08-2020
3- Wave-1 gained 4283.20 points
4- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 10790.20 on 24-09-2020
5- Impulsive Wave-3 completion at 15431.8 on 16-02-2021
6- Wave-3 gained 4641.60 points
7- Corrective Wave-4 completion at 14151.4 on 22-04-2021
8- Impulsive Wave-5 continuation with recent high and new life time top formation at 18350.75 on 14-10-2021
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Waves structure)
Impulsive Wave-5 continuation with recent high and new life time top formation in previous session at 18350.75 on 14-10-2021 and no signal of Wave-5 completion yet on EOD chartS.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (14-Oct-2021):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Impulsive Wave-5 continuation with recent high and new life time top formation at 18350.75 on 14-10-2021
2- Stochastic- %K(5) is at 92.54 & %D(3) is at 87.58 and its both lones are rising in Over bought zone.
3- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line upward. Its MACD line has started to move up while its Average line is moving flat in positive zone.
4- MACD is showing negative divergence
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Although strong rally continuation but Short Term indicator Stochastic is completely overbought therefore it will be understood that Short Term correction is on cards and it may be seen in next week.
As strong rally continuation therefore MACD line has intersected Average line upward in MACD indicator but MACD is showing negative divergence and its Average line is moving flat also therefore some more confirmation is required for upward trend formations in this indicator.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(14-Oct-2021)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (14-Oct-2021):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- Consolidation between 18255-18291
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Up moves with downward corrections
4- Whole day actual trading between 18248-18350
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As firstly sideways trading consolidation and after that till end of the day follow up consolidation through Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel and Up moves with downward corrections therefore whole day last Thursday trading will be understood with good intraday consolidation and resultant up moves above day highest(18350) will be seen in the beginning of next week.
Conclusions (After putting all studies together)
Bullish rally continuation and all the trends are up as well as no indication of its completion yet on intraday and EOD charts patterns.
As EOD,Weekly and Monthly indicators have turned Overbought and many of them are showing negative divergence also therefore view should be cautious because Short,Intermediate and/or Long Term correction may begun any day after selling patterns formations on EOD and intraday charts because indicators are such high Overbought.
Nifty highest at 18350.75 was formed on 14-10-2021 and as per above given Waves structure its maximum target is at 18793,its calculations are as follows:-
As per Elliott Wave theory "Wave-3 should not be shorter than both Wave-1 and Wave-5. Now impulsive Wave-5 is on and it should not gain more points than Wave-3 has gained.
Impulsive Wave-1 gained=4283.20 points(11794.30-7511.10)
Impulsive Wave-3 gained=4641.60 points(15431.80-10790.20)
Impulsive Wave-5 has gained 3796.25 points till 24-09-2021(17947.65-14151.40)
As according to Elliott Wave theory Wave-5 can not gain more points than Wave-3 gained therefore on going impulsive Wave-5 will gain lesser points than 4641.60.
Impulsive Wave-5 started from 14151.4 on 22-04-2021 and it has to gain less than 4641.60 points therefore maximum target of on going impulsive Wave-5 is 18793.00(14151.40+4641.60)
As Nifty has travelled upto 18350.75 till last Thursday(14-10-2021) and as per present Waves structure its maximum target is at 18793.00 therefore remain cautious and if clear selling patterns develop on intraday and EOD Charts then correction should be considered according to the weightage,size and duration of selling patterns formations.
It should also be kept in mind that As per Eliot Waves theory Waves structure will be recalculated after Nifty moving above 18793.00 and till then trading policies should be above given Nifty Waves structure.