Correction confirmation and 8109/7961 will decide Long Term Trend
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook
(27-03-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (26-Mar-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Selling between 8436-8499
2- Sharp down in last 2 hours
3- Whole day actual trading between 9326-8499
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Following weekly analysis topic was posted on 22-03-2015:-
Bulls & Bears Semi Final between 8470.50-8640 in Next Week
As intraday charts of last 4 sessions were showing consolidation patterns therefore it was expected that Impulsive Sub Wave-1 will remain continued and finally fresh rally will start after follow up consolidation today despite weakness in US and European markets yesterday but I proved wrong because Sentiment turned most depressed today morning because US markets closed near the lowest of the day yesterday after last hour sharp down. Resultant gap down opening of Indian markets was seen and Impulsive Sub Wave-1 failing confirmation in first minute today after Nifty slipping below 8470.50. As Dow's Futures slipped more than 160 points and European markets also slipped after opening therefore no respite for Indian markets and whole day crashing like situation was seen today.
Short Term Trend was already down and Intermediate term trend turning down confirmation today after Nifty slipping below 8470.50 and it means correction continuation confirmation from 3 weeks to 3 months.
Wave-5 started from 7961.35 on 17-12-2014 and its completion confirmation at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015(on RBI Rates cut day) therefore Nifty will firstly correct that rally which started from 7961.35. Long Term Trend is still up and its decider 200 Day EMA is today at 8109. As 7961.35 is just above 8109 therefore finally sustaining beyond 8109 / 7961.35 will decide the fate of Long Term Trend.
Wave-1 started from 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and its Wave-5 completion confirmation today. If Nifty sustains below Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(8109) and bottom of Wave-5(7961.35) then Nifty will retrace whole that rally which started from 5118.85 and these levels should be watched in the coming weeks for Long Term Trend confirmations.
As Oscillators are oversold therefore Pull Back rally may be seen any day after 1/2 sessions lower levels consolidation but complete consolidation is required on Daily and Weekly charts for correction completion and following retracement levels of Wave-5 should be firstly watched in the coming 1/2 sessions for Pull Back rally:-
[0.618] 8,403.3600(Retraced today but Most crucial level)
[0.707] 8,300.2900
[0.764] 8,234.2900
[0.786] 8,208.8100
[0.886] 8,093.0100