8521-8627 Will decide the fate of expected Pull Back rally
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Mar 30 to Apr 01,2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (27-Mar-2015):- |
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1- Consolidation Patterns between 8337-8356
2- Consolidation between 8269-8331(Immediate Supports)
3- Consolidation Patterns between 8334-8346
4- Whole day actual trading between 8269-8392
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although flat closing but whole day good consolidation therefore Pull Back Rally possibility in the beginning of next week
Nifty-EOD Chart (27-Mar-2015):-
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1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014 and Wave-5 started)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015)
7- Correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 8269.15 on 27-03-2015
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Following most positive news flow in March Derivative series:-
1- Market Friendly Union Budget on 28-02-2015.
2- RBI rates cut on 04-03-2015.
3- Insurance Laws Amendment Bill, 2015 was passed by the Rajya Sabha on 13-03-2015.
4- Positive news of rates hike delaying in FOMC on 18-03-2015 night.
Surprising most encouraging news of RBI rates cut on 04-03-2015 and new life time high formation also same day but that correction beginning which remain continued till the last day on March Derivative series.
Nifty traded 4 sessions between 20/03/2015-25/03/2015 within 8521-8627 with intraday consolidation patterns but this range was forcefully broken down on 26/03/2015 because all the Global markets were most depressed due to following negative news:-
1- Saudi Arabia launches air strikes in Yemen.
2- Greece Crisis enhancement news because Greece cash crisis takes turn for worse.
Indian markets also reacted negative and Nifty closed 209 points down on 26/03/2015 as well as gave Intermediate term trend turning down confirmation after slipping below 8470.50. As above mentioned 4 sessions trading was with consolidation patterns and this range was broken down due to negative news therefore if follow up consolidation develops in next week after intraday consolidation on 27-03-2015 then sustaining above 8627 will give strong indication of correction completion.
As selling developed after above mentioned encouraging and positive news and following resistances have developed at higher levels therefore follow up consolidation is also required rally continuation:-
1- 8738-8788
2- 8805-8825
3- 8920-8943
4- 9023-9096
At present Short and Intermediate term trends are down and Long Term Trend is still up,its decider 200-Day EMA is today at 8111. Wave-5 started from 7961.35 and it is just below 8111 therefore these 2 levels become most crucial. Correction is on and no confirmation of its completion yet as well as some more down moves possibilities can not be ruled out therefore sustaining beyond 8111 / 7961.35 sould be watched in the coming week / weeks for deciding the fate of Long Term Trend. It should be kept in mind that Wave-1 started from 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and its 5th Wave completion confirmation on 26/03/2015,if Nifty sustains below Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(8111) and bottom of Wave-5(7961.35) then Nifty will retrace that rally which started from 5118.85.
As Oscillators are oversold and good intraday consolidation on 27/03/2015 therefore Pull Back rally in expected in the beginning of next week but complete consolidation is required on Daily and Weekly charts for correction completion and if it happens near about following retracement levels that will be first strong signal of correction completion:-
1- 0.707%- 8300(Retraced and closing above it on 27/03/2015 )
2- 0.764%- 8234
3- 0.786%- 8208
4- 0.886%- 8093
Pull Back rally is expected in the beginning of next week and finally sustaining beyond 8521-8627 will decide its length and fate.