Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Mar 12 to Mar 16,2012)
(Mar 12 to Mar 16,2012)
'ABC' Correction of 1098 Nifty Points rally
Nifty-EOD Chart(09-Mar-2012):-
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1- 1098.80 Nifty Points Wave-1(rally) in 45 sessions from 4531.15
2- Completion of Wave-1(rally) at 5629.95 and beginning of Wave-2(Corrective Wave-A).
3- Corrective Wave-A completion at 5268.15 and beginning of Corrective Wave-B.
4- Corrective Wave-B completion at 5458.80 and beginning of Corrective Wave-C.
5- Corrective Wave-2(Wave-c) completion at 5171.45 and beginning of Wave-3 after completion of 'ABC' Correction.
6- Testing of Intermediate term trend decider 5340 on 09-03-2012
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Sharp corrective down moves below 5340 were seen in previous week but Nifty got support at 5171.45 and surged sharply also after gap up opening on 09-03-2012. Importance of Next support range(5120-5190) below 5340 was told in following topic on 03-03-3012:-
Nifty got support exactly within mentioned range on 07-03-3012 and moved up on 09-03-3012 after gap up opening and tested Intermediate term trend decider 5340. Long term trend is up,Intermediate term and Short term trends are down. Both downward trends will be up after sustaining above 5340.
Nifty slipped below 5340 after intraday selling between 5340-5458 and require frech consolidations for sustaining above 5458. Impulsive Wave-3 beginning on 09-03-3012 and following levels will give next moves confirmations;-
1- Sustaining above 5340 will mean Intermediate and Short term trends turning up.
2- Sustaining above 5458 will be confirmation of impulsive Wave-3 and that will mean sharp rally like Dec 2011 to form new highs above 5629.95.
Supports at Crucial Levels & Trend Reversal
Nifty-EOD Chart(09-Mar-2012):-
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1- 38.2% Retracement completion at 5209
2- Support at 200-Day EMA(today at 5190).
3- Support above 200-Day SMA(today at 5164).
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Firstly support at Long term trend deciding 200-Day averages after 38.2% retracement completion and after that sharp surge means strong indication of fresh up moves after correction completion in previous week.
4 Big Events in next Week
1- Petroleum price hike news any day.
2- IIP Data on 12-03-2012
3- RBI Credit Policy on 15-03-2012
4- Union Budget on 16-03-2012
Intraday moves will be effected by IIP Data on 12-03-2012 and RBI Credit Policy may trigger intraday rally through reduction in interest rates but finally Union Budget will decide next trend and fate of last Friday begun impulsive Wave-3. Volatility may be seen any day after Petroleum price hike news but market will eye on bigger event of Union Budget and next decisive trend will be formed according to its proposals and announcements on 16-03-2012.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Strong indications of corretion completion in previous week and now Indian markets are technically well poised for strong moves in the form of previous week started Wave-3 for following levels:-
1- New top of the on going rally above 5629.95.
2- To cross next resistance of 5600-5700.
2- Fast up moves To test next resistance of 5800-5900
3- To test next resistance of 6100-6200 in the coming months.
As strong indications of impulsive Wave-3 beginning in previous week therefore expected that market will firstly turn range bound near 5400 in the coming week and will prepare for post Budget moves as well as also expected that finally Indian markets will move up,sustaining above 5458 and strong rally will be seen after Union Budget-2012.