All the Trends are Down & watch

 next supports and resistances also amid

 Union Budget-2025 led Volatility

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly

Outlook(Jan 27 to Jan 31,2025)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Waves structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (24-Jan-2025):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-C of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 and impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 beginning. 

2- Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 completion with new life time top formations at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024 and Corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 of "ABC" correction beginning.

3- Corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at 23263.20 on 21-11-2024.

4- Corrective Wave-B of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at 24857.80 on 05-12-2024.

5- Corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 continuation with recent bottom formations at 22976.60 on 21-01-2025.

6- Last 10 sessions sideways between 22977-23426

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Waves structure)

Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 begun from 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 after Wave-C of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 of "ABC" correction completion at this level. Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 gained 7439.5 points in 11 months before completion at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024 after new life time top formations at this level and Corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completed this level. 

Corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completed at 23263.20 on 21-11-2024 and from this level Wave-B of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 started which completed at 24857.80 on 05-12-2024. Corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 begun from this level which is now in continuation with recent bottom formations at 22976.60 on 21-01-2025 and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts.

Last 10 sessions sideways trading is being seen between 22977-23426 and finally sustaining beyond or forceful break out/down of this range will generate next bigger moves therefore should be watched in the coming week for next Trend formations and/or next bigger moves beginning confirmations

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

Nifty-EOD Chart (24-Jan-2025):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Stochastic- Its both lines %K(5) and %D(3) are kissing above Over sold zone.

2- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 38.74 & %D(3)- 39.07.

3- In MACD- Its both MACD line and Average line are kissing in negative zone.

4- MACD(26,12)- -310.42 & EXP(9)- -326.80 & Divergence- 16.38

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

Technical positions of Short Term indicators are as follows:-

1- As in Stochastic indicator its both lines %K(5) and %D(3) are kissing above Over sold zone therefore it will be understood that at present this indicator is not showing clear signals of any side Short Term moves beginning. Let its both lines to start one sided moves after %K(5) line intersection of %D(3) line then that side Short Term moves will be seen in the coming week.

2- As in MACD indicator its both MACD line and Average line are kissing in negative zone therefore it will be understood that now Short Term Trend is down but at present this indicator is not showing clear signals of any side immediate Term moves beginning. Let its both lines to start one sided moves after MACD line intersection of Average line then that side immediate moves will be seen.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Averages)

Nifty-EOD Chart (24-Jan-2025):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

Averages:-

1- 5-Day SMA is today at 23164 

2- 21-Day SMA is today at 23467

3- 55-Day SMA is today at 23881

4- 100-Day SMA is today at 24407

5- 200-Day SMA is today at 23984

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Averages)

Although Nifty is hovering around 5-Day SMA for the last 11 sessions but all the Trends are down because Nifty is well below and sustained below all the Short to Long Term decider 21,55 and 200-Day SMAs. Let Nifty to sustain above following Averages then that Trend will be up:- 

1- Short Term Trend will be up after sustaining above 21-Day SMA.

2- Intermediate Term Trend will be up after sustaining above 55-Day SMA. 

3- Long Term Trend will be up after sustaining above 200-Day SMA.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis

(24-Jan-2025)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (24-Jan-2025):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel

2- Up moves with downward corrections

3- Selling between 23295-23347

4- Down moves with upward corrections

5- Whole day actual trading between 23051-23347

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although firstly downward moves after negative opening but were in Bullish Falling Channel therefore upward moves were seen after 1st hour downward moves. As these upward moves were with downward corrections which means with intraday consolidation patterns formations hence Nifty recovered 244 points form lower levels and traded 141 points up also. 

Nifty could not sustain at higher levels because fresh selling patterns formations were seen and after that last more than 3 hours down moves were with upward corrections which means more intraday selling patterns formations therefore it will be understood that more intraday selling patterns developed last Friday hence firstly downward moves are expected in the beginning of next week.

Conclusions

(After putting all studies together)

1- Long Term Trend is at down.

2- Intermediate Term trend down.

3- Short Term Trend is down.

Corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 of "ABC" correction which started from 26277.30 on 27-09-2024 after Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 completion and new life time top formations at this level. Now Corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 in in continuation after loosing 3300 points in the last 3 months. Although now no confirmation of on going correction completion but firstly sustaining beyond last 10 sessions sideways range(22977-23426) should be watched in the coming week/weeks for the next Trend formations and that side Short Term moves beginning confirmations.

As Short Term indicators are not showing of any side decide moves beginning clear signals and Averages are confirming that all the trends are down as well as last Friday intraday charts are also showing downward moves beginning signals therefore firstly sustaining beyond the lowest of last 10 sessions trading range(22977-23426) should be watched in the coming week for the confirmation of on going Short Term Correction continuation/completion. 

As Union Budget-2025 will be presented on 01-02-2025 and Union Budget led volatility will be seen in the coming week therefore following supports and resistances should also be watched one by one for next decisive moves beginning confirmations:-

Next supports below previous week closing are as follows:- 

1- 22760-22871

2- 22291-22395

3- 21884-22191

4- 21502-21582

5- 21417-21500

Next resistances above previous week closing are as follows:- 

1- 23178-23207

2- 23295-23347

3- 23355-23426

4- 23498-23601

5- 23603-23649

6- 23834-23877

7- 23892-24065

8- 24106-24143

9- 24191-24230

10-24282-24314

Sustaining beyond most crucial

 levels will generate more than

 1% one sided moves

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis &

Market Outlook(24-01-2025)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (23-Jan-2025):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Sharp upward moves after negative opening

2- More than 5 hours sideways trading between 23198-23270

3- Whole day actual trading between 23091-23270

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although firstly slipping after negative opening and Nifty traded 64 points down also but sharp upward moves were seen after that as well as Nifty traded more than 5 hours sideways between 23198-23270 today. Resistances between 23205-23293 were posted in both 2 previous Outlooks and Nifty traded more than 5 hours sideways within and little below this range between 23198-23270 today as well as Nifty closed exactly today at the bottom of mentioned resistance range at 23205.35. As in this manner levels between 23198-23293 has become most crucial and next bigger moves decider also as well as finally sustaining beyond this range will generate next more than 1% one sided moves hence it should be watched in the coming sessions for more than 1% moves beginning confirmations.

Watch immediate Support & Resistances

 after Intraday Volatility

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(23-01-2025)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (22-Jan-2025):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Intraday volatility

2- Whole day actual trading between 22982-23169

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although strong US markets closing led positive opening of Nifty but one day before good intraday selling was seen in Indian markets therefore Nifty could not sustain and downward moves started which remained continued more than 4 hours. 1st supports between 22961-23096 was posted at 09:36 PM on 20-01-2025 and Nifty got supports within this range at 22981.30 as well as upward moves begun which remaied continued till last half hour. 

As whole day only intraday volatility and one sided clear intraday trading patterns were not seen therefore sustaining beyond following immediate supports and immediate resistances should be watched for next one sided decisive moves moves beginning confirmations:-                                            

1- Immediate support(22961-23096)

2- Immediate resistances(23205-23293)

Firstly watch sustaining beyond 

23205-23293 after US markets 

led upward moves today

Post-open Outlook

(22-01-2025)

As Dow Jones closed 537 points up yesterday and resultant sentiment turned positive today morning therefore 

1- Green zone trading of Indian markets is being seen today. 

but

2- Midcap and Smallcap Indices are now trading more than 700 and 250 points down respectively.

3- Bank Nifty is trading in Red

As good selling was seen between 23205-23293 and above this range yesterday and this range is immediate resistance of Nifty therefore until Nifty will not sustain above this range till then decisive up moves will not be seen and firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched today for next intraday decisive moves beginning confirmations. 

Downward moves expectations

 towards next supports

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market

Outlook(22-01-2025)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (21-Jan-2025):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 23345-23426

2- Sharp down

3- Consolidation between 23147-23215

4- Sharp up

5- Selling between 23364-23411

6- Sharp down

7- Consolidation between 23109-23168

8- Selling between 23205-23293

9- Sharp down

10- Whole day actual trading between 22977-23426

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As good intraday consolidation yesterday therefore firstly Nifty traded 76 points up after gap up opening but fresh selling developed immediately after opening  hence sharp down moves were begun which remained continued till last hour because whole day follow up selling was seen at intraday higher levels. 

Although whole day high intraday volatility with lower levels consolidation and and higher levels selling with sharp upward and downward moves also but higher levels more selling developed therefore firstly downward moves are expected towards following next supports. Sustaining beyond following supports should also be watched one by one for next intraday decisive moves beginning confirmations:- 

1- 22961-23096

2- 22760-22871

Upward moves expectations

 towards next resistances

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis &

Market Outlook(21-01-2025)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (20-Jan-2025):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 23171-23239

2- Upward moves

3- More than 4 hours consolidation between 23329-23391

4- Whole day actual trading between 23171-23391

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although firstly 119 points down moves after positive opening and Nifty traded in negative zone also but lower levels consolidation developed therefore after that upward moves were seen. As more than 4 hours consolidation in last hours also therefore firstly upward moves are expected towards following next resistances and sustaining beyond these resistances should be watched one by one for next intraday moves beginning confirmations:- 

1- 23498-23601

2- 23603-23649

 Finally sustaining beyond 23048-23391 will generate indications of next Trend formations

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Jan 20 to Jan 24,2025)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Waves structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (17-Jan-2025):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Corrective Wave-C of previous Waves structure "ABC correction" completion at 15183.40 on 17-06-2022 and Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure beginning.

2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 18887.60 on 01-12-2022.

3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 16828.30 on 20-03-2023.

4- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 completion at 20222.45 on 15-09-2023 and Wave-A of "ABC" correction beginning.

5- Wave-A of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 19333.60 on 04-10-2023.

6- Wave-B of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 19849.80 on 17-10-2023.  

7- Wave-C of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 and impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 beginning. 

8- Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 completion with new life time top formations at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024 and Corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 of "ABC" correction beginning.

9- Corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at 23263.20 on 21-11-2024.

10- Corrective Wave-B of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at 24857.80 on 05-12-2024.

11- Corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 continuation with recent bottom formations at 23047.30 on 13-01-2025.

12- Last 5 Sessions actual trading between 23048-23391 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Waves structure)

Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure started from 18887.60 on 01-12-2022 after Corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" of previous Waves structure completion at this level and from this level corrective Wave-2 begun which completed at 16828.30 on 20-03-2023 and impulsive Wave-3 started from this level.

Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 completed at 20222.40 on 15-09-20235 and from this level corrective Wave-A of "ABC" correction of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 begun which completed at 19333.60 on 04-10-2023. Wave-B started from this level which completed at 19849.80 on 17-10-2023 and Wave-C begun which completed at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023. Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 started from this level which completed with new life time top formations at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024 and corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 begun from this level. 

Corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completed at 23263.20 on 21-11-2024 and Wave-B of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 begun from this levels which completed at 24792.30 on 13-12-2024 and from this levels corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 started which is now in continuation with recent bottom formations at 23047.30 on 13-01-2025 and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts. 

Last 5 sessions trading was between 23048-23391 after 148 points gap down opening on 13-01-2025 and this gap was filled up also on 16-01-2025. As finally sustaining beyond last 5 sessions trading range will generate first signal of following trends continuation/completion therefore for it should be watched in the coming week/weeks:-  

1- On going corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3.

2- On going "ABC" correction.   

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

Nifty-EOD Chart (17-Jan-2025):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are rising from Over sold zone.

2- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 57.72 & %D(3)- 47.38.

3- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are moving flat in negative zone.

4- MACD(26,12)- -1470.25 & EXP(9)- -1323.28 & Divergence- 146.97

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

Technical positions of Short Term indicators are as follows:-

1- As in Stochastic its %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are rising from Over sold zone and this indicator have not turned Over bought yet therefore it will be understood that this indicator is showing signals of Short Term upward moves possibility in the coming week.

2- As in MACD its MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are in negative zone therefore it will be understood that this indicator is confirming Downward Trend formations but now its both lines are moving flat also hence remain watchful and if its MACD line intersects Average line upward then Short Term upward moves will be seen.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Averages)

Nifty-EOD Chart (17-Jan-2025):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

Averages:-

1- 5-Day SMA is today at 23198 

2- 21-Day SMA is today at 23608

3- 55-Day SMA is today at 23976

4- 100-Day SMA is today at 24507

5- 200-Day SMA is today at 23967

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Averages)

Nifty has closed below all the 4 higher Averages and at 5-Day SMA last Friday which means that all the Trends are down. Let Nifty to sustain above following Averages then that Trend will be up:- 

1- Short Term Trend will be up after sustaining above 21-Day SMA.

2- Intermediate Term Trend will be up after sustaining above 55-Day SMA. 

3- Long Term Trend will be up after sustaining above 200-Day SMA.

Nifty-Last 5 Sessions

intraday charts analysis

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jan 13 to Jan 17,2025):-

Technical Patterns formation in last 5 Sessions intraday charts

1- Higher levels resistanes developed in last 5 sessions between:- 

A- 23218-23265

B- 23305-23349

2- Lower levels supports developed in last 5 sessions between:-

A- 23101-23202

B- 23054-23095

3- Last 5 Sessions actual trading between 23048-23391 

Conclusions from 5 Sessions

intra day chart analysis 

As last 5 Sessions actual trading between 23048-23391 with above mentioned supports and resistances which seems almost equally strong therefore Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next Short Term Trend within and near about last 5 Sessions actual trading range and finally sustaining it beyond will confirm next Short Term Trend and that side bigger moves beginning which should be firstly watched in the coming week and next Short Term Trend formation confirmations.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart

 Analysis(17-Jan-2025)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (17-Jan-2025):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- 3 Times higher levels selling between 23218-23265

2- Consolidation between 23101-23159

3- Consolidation between 23168-23202

4- Whole day actual trading between 23101-23292

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As firstly slipping after weaker opening and after that fresh selling also therefore sharp fall was seen after that and Nifty traded 211 points down in first 2 hours. Although Nifty traded 211 points down but lower level consolidation developed therefore Nifty recovered 162 points also in Mid-Session.

Although Nifty closed 108 points down last Friday but lower levels 2 times consolidation was seen despite 3 times higher levels selling also therefore Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next decisive moves within and near about last Friday actual trading range(23101-23292) and finally sustaing it beyond will confirm next decisive moves beginning which should be firstly watched in the beginning of next week.

Conclusions (After putting all studies together)

1- Long Term Trend is at down.

2- Intermediate Term trend down.

3- Short Term Trend is down.

"ABC" correction of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 begun from 26277.30 on 27-09-2024 after Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 completion at this level and now its Wave-C is in continuations with its recent recent bottom formations at 23047.30 on 13-01-2025 as well as no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts. 

As most Short Term Averages are below its next higher Averages therefore it will be understood that now on going correction continuation is in its complete force. Although Short Term indicator Stochastic is showing signals of Short Term upward moves beginning possibility in the coming week but now another Short Term indicator MACD is not indicating any side immediate decisive moves beginning possibility therefore remain watchful because now more confirmations are required.

First signal of next short Term moves beginning will emerge from sustaining beyond last 5 Sessions trading range(23048-23391) therefore next supports and resistances within this range have been updated above which should be firstly watched for next immediate moves beginning indications/confirmations. As sustaining beyond last 5 Sessions trading range will generate indications of next Trend formation also therefore should be firstly watched and finally sustaining beyond following levels should also be watched for next Trend formation confirmations:-

1- If Nifty sustains below 23048 then following levels should be watched:-

A- 50.0%- 22,557 (Fibonacci Retracement Crucial Level)

B- 61.8%- 21,679 (Fibonacci Retracement Crucial Level)

2- If Nifty sustains above 23391 then following levels should be watched:-

A- 21-Day SMA(today at 23608) for Short Term Trend confirmations.

B- 55-Day SMA(today at 23976) for Intermediate Term Trend confirmations.

C- 200-Day SMA(today at 23967) for Long Term Trend confirmations.

 Finally sustaining beyond 23273-23356

 will confirm next intraday 

decisive moves beginning

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(17-01-2025)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (16-Jan-2025):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Whole day sideways trading between 23273-23356

2- Whole day actual trading between 23283-23391

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although 83 points gap up strong opening but down moves were seen in first 2 hours and after that whole day sideways trading was seen within 83 points between 23273-23356. As one sided intraday patterns were not seen which means that both higher levels selling patterns and lower levels consolidation patterns developed therefore expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next decisive moves within and near about 23273-23356 as well as finally sustaining beyond this trading range will confirm next intraday decisive moves beginning:-

1- Towards following next supports below 23273:- 

A- 23135-23169

B- 23048-23097

2- Towards following next resistances above 23356:- 

A- 23498-23601

B- 23603-23649

Upward moves expectations towards 

next resistances

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(16-01-2025)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (15-Jan-2025):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Down moves after positive opening

2- Minor selling at higher levels

3- Consolidation Patterns formation between 23147-23228

4- Whole day actual trading between 23147-23293

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As lower levels consolidation was seen between 23145-23181 on 14-01-2025 therefore following lines were told at 08:26 AM on 14-01-2025 in "Sustaining above 23181 will mean strong Pull Back rally beginning":-

sufficient consolidation developed below 23181 today and upward moves are expected as well as once sustaining above it will mean strong Pull Back rally beginning in the coming sessions.

As was told on 14-01-2025 and 100% same happened in following manner on 15-01-2025:-

1- Nifty closed in Green on 15-01-2025.  

2- Nifty closed above 23181 on 15-01-2025.

Although minor selling was seen at higher levels but lower levels more consolidation Patterns formation also developed between 23147-23228 on 15-01-2025 and sufficient consolidation was seen in previous session also therefore expected that upward moves will be seen towards following next resistances:- 

1- 23498-23601

2- 23603-23649

Firstly sustaining beyond above mentioned resistances should be watched one by one for next intraday decisive moves beginning confirmations

Sustaining above 23181 will mean

strong Pull Back rally beginning

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis &

Market Outlook(15-01-2025)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (14-Jan-2025):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel

2- Consolidation between 23135-23169

3- Volatility between 23188-23264

4- Consolidation between 23145-23181

5- Whole day actual trading between 23135-23264

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

 As lower levels consolidation was seen in last hour yesterday therefore following lines were told at 08:24 AM today in "Watch 23223 amid firstly upward moves beginning expectations":-

firstly upward moves will be seen towards 23223 and sustaining it beyond should be firstly watched today for next intraday decisive moves beginning confirmations

As was told 100% same happened and upward moves were seen towards and above 23223 as well as Nifty hovered it around also but could not sustain above it and closed below it at 23176.05 today.

As firstly down moves in Bullish Falling Channel after positive opening and lower levels consolidation also therefore sharp up moves were seen but Nifty could not sustain at higher levels and fallen sharply and in this manner Volatility developed between 23188-23264 in Mid-Session today. Lower levels consolidation was also seen in last 3 hours between 23145-23181 therefore it will be understood that sufficient consolidation developed below 23181 today and upward moves are expected as well as once sustaining above it will mean strong Pull Back rally beginning in the coming sessions.

Watch 23223 amid firstly upward 

moves beginning expectations

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(14-01-2025)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (13-Jan-2025):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 23223-23340

2- Downward moves

3- Consolidation between 23048-23175

4- Whole day actual trading between 23048-23340

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although up moves were seen after 236 points weaker and gap down opening and Nifty recovered 145 points also but selling patterns developed in first 3 hours therefore Nifty could not sustain at intrady higher levels and fresh downward moves begun as well as Nifty traded 484 points down also. As lower levels consolidation was also seen in last hour therefore firstly upward moves will be seen towards 23223 and sustaining it beyond should be firstly watched today for next intraday decisive moves beginning confirmations.

Watch next supports,resistances & levels after Long Term Trend turning down confirmations

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Jan 13 to Jan 17,2025)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Waves structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Jan-2025):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Corrective Wave-C of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 and impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 beginning. 

2- Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 completion with new life time top formations at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024 and Corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 of "ABC" correction beginning.

3- Corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at 23263.20 on 21-11-2024.

4- Corrective Wave-B of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at 24857.80 on 05-12-2024.

5- Corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 continuation with recent bottom formations at 23344.35 on 10-01-2025.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Waves structure)

Corrective Wave-C of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completed at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 and from this level impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 started which completed with new life time top formations at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024 and from this level corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 of "ABC" correction begun. 

Corrective Wave-A completed at 23263.20 on 21-11-2024 and from this lvel Wave-B started which completed at 24857.80 on 05-12-2024. Corrective Wave-C begun from this level which is in continuation with recent bottom formations at 23344.35 on 10-01-2025 and no indication of its completion yet on EOD charts.  

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Jan-2025):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling in Over sold zone.

2- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 14.14 & %D(3)- 18.45.

3- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line upward and its both lines have started to rise in negative zone.

4- MACD(26,12)- -279.16 & EXP(9)- -373.75 & Divergence- 94.59

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

Technical positions of Short Term indicators are as follows:-

1- As in Stochastic its %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling in Over sold zone therefore it will be understood that this indicator has not shown any upward move beginning signal yet. Let its both lines to move above Over sold zone after upward intersection then decisive upward moves will be seen. 

2- As in MACD its MACD line has intersected Average line upward and its both lines have started to rise in negative zone therefore it will be understood that this indicator has generated first signal of Upward trend formations and resultant moves beginning.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Averages)

Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Jan-2025):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

Averages:-

1- 5-Day SMA is today at 23594 

2- 21-Day SMA is today at 23919

3- 55-Day SMA is today at 24082

4- 100-Day SMA is today at 24588

5- 200-Day SMA is today at 23940

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Averages)

Short and Intermediate Term Trends were already down and Long Term Trend has turned down in previous week after last 5 sessions closing below its decider 200-Day SMA which means that more downward moves will be seen in the coming weeks/months. 

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis

(10-Jan-2025)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (10-Jan-2025):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Sharp fall in first half hour

2- Consolidation between 23345-23446

3- Sharp up

4- Selling between 23498-23601

5- Sharp fall

6- Consolidation between 23401-23446

7- Whole day actual trading between 23345-23596

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although firstly upward moves were seen after positive opening and Nifty traded 69 points up also but Nifty could not sustain and moved down sharply in first hour. As lower levels consolidation developed therefore sharp upward moves were seen in the next hours but selling was seen at higher levels hence again sharp fall was seen and again lower levels consolidation developed in last hour.                              

It is clear that both lower levels consolidation and higher levels selling was seen last Friday therefore whole day trading will be understood with Mixed Patterns formation between 23345-23596 hence Nifty will trade and prepare for next Short Term moves within and near about this trading range in the beginning of next week as well as finally sustaining beyond this trading range will confirm next Short Term moves beginning in next week.

Conclusions

(After putting all studies together)

1- Long Term Trend is at down.

2- Intermediate Term trend down.

3- Short Term Trend is down.

Corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 of that impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 is in continuation with recent bottom formations at 23344.35 on 10-01-2025 which started from 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 and no indication of its completion yet on EOD charts. 

As Short Term indicator MACD has generated first signal of Upward trend formations and resultant showing upward moves beginning possibility but another Short Term indicator Stochastic is completely over sold and not producing Short Term upward moves signals therefore let Stochastic to generate clear upward moves beginning signals then decisive up moves beginning will be expected. 

Fibonacci Retracement Crucial levels of Wave-(iii) of Wave-3(18837.80-26277.30) are as follows which should be watched for first signal of on going downward Trend continuation/completion:- 

38.2%- 23,435 (Crucial Level)-Retraced

50.0%- 22,557 (Crucial Level)

61.8%- 21,679 (Crucial Level)

As all the Short to Long Term Averages are confirming that all the Trends are down after Long Term Trend turning down confirmations in previous week therefore more downward moves will be seen towards following supports in the coming weeks/months:- 

1- 23298-23337

2- 23161-23206

3- 22961-23096

4- 22760-22871

5- 22291-22395

6- 21884-22191

7- 21502-21582

8- 21417-21500

Next resistances above last Friday closing are as follows which should be watched one by one for next upward/downward moves beginning confirmations:-

1- 23498-23601

2- 23603-23649

3- 23834-23877

4- 23892-24065

5- 24106-24143

6- 24191-24230

7- 24282-24314

Although Long Term Trend turning down confirmations and more downward moves will be seen but in the mean time Short and Intermediate Term upward moves will also be seen. In this situation it should be kept in mind that until Nifty will not sustain above Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA(today at 23940) till then decisive upward moves will not be seen and above mentioned next supports,resistances and levels should be watched one by one for next upward/downward moves beginning signals and confirmations.

Watch immediate supports between 

23298-23337 for next intraday 

decisive moves beginning confirmations 

after weaker cues led sharp fall

Post-open Outlook(10-01-2025)

As more than 4 hours consolidation pattern formations were seen yesterday therefore firstly upward moves were seen and Nifty traded 69 points up also after positive opening today despite weaker Global cues today morning. All the Asian markets are trading .50% to more than 1% down and sentiment was depressed today therefore Nifty could not sustain after initial up moves and moved down sharply. Immediate supports are between 23298-23337 which should be firstly watched today for next intraday decisive moves beginning confirmations.

 Firstly watch 23504-23567 after 

all weaker Global markets today

Pre-open Outlook(10-01-2025)

As Dow Jones Futures traded 198 points down today morning and in reaction all the Asian markets are now trading in negative zone therefore sentiment is depressed hence in reaction weaker opening of Indian markets can not be ruled out today. Nifty traded between 23504-23567 in the last more than 4 hours yesterday and firstly sustaining beyond this range should be firstly watched today for next intraday decisive moves beginning confirmations after all weaker Global markets today.

Watch sustaining beyond today highest 

amid upward moves expectations

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis &

Market Outlook(10-01-2025)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (09-Jan-2025):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 23603-23649

2- Sharp fall

3- More than 4 hours down moves in Bullish Falling Channel

4- Whole day actual trading between 23504-23689

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although firstly selling after negative opening and after that sharp fall also developed as well as Nifty traded 185 points down also but last more than 4 hours down moves were in Bullish Falling Channels which is a consolidation pattern therefore upward moves are expected towards today highest(23689) despite 162 points negative closing today. Finally sustaining beyond today highest should be watched for next intraday decisive moves beginning confirmations.

2 Levels will confirm today

decisive moves beginning

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis &

Market Outlook(08-01-2025)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (07-Jan-2025):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Volatility in first hour between 23638-23795

2- More than 5 hours sideways trading between 23691-23765

3- Whole day actual trading between 23638-23795

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although firstly 157 points Volatility in first hour but after that more than 5 hours 74 points narrow range sideways trading developed yesterday. As one sided intraday patterns formations were not seen yesterday therefore next intraday decisive moves beginning will be seen after sustaining beyond following 2 intraday trading levels of yesterday which should be watched one by one for first signal and final confirmation of today intraday decisive moves beginning:-

1- 23691-23765(First signal)

2- 23638-23795(Final confirmation)

Upward moves expectations towards

 today highest

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(07-01-2025)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (06-Jan-2025):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Down moves with upward corrections

2- More than 3 hours consolidation patterns formations between 23552-23769

3- Whole day actual trading between 23552-24089

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although firstly upward moves after positive opening but selling started through down moves with upward corrections which remained continued more than 2 hours. As More than 3 hours consolidation patterns formations also therefore upward moves are expected towards today highest(24089) and finally sustaining it beyond should be watched tomorrow for next decisive moves beginning confirmations

Watch 3 crucial levels one by one for next trend formations and that side decisive moves beginning confirmations

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Jan 06 to Jan 10,2025)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Waves structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (03-Jan-2025):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Corrective Wave-C of previous Waves structure "ABC correction" completion at 15183.40 on 17-06-2022 and Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure beginning.

2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 18887.60 on 01-12-2022.

3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 16828.30 on 20-03-2023.

4- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 completion at 20222.45 on 15-09-2023 and Wave-A of "ABC" correction beginning.

5- Wave-A of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 19333.60 on 04-10-2023.

6- Wave-B of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 19849.80 on 17-10-2023.  

7- Corrective Wave-C of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 and impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 beginning. 

6- Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 completion with new life time top formations at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024 and Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 beginning.

9- Corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at 23263.20 on 21-11-2024.

10- Corrective Wave-B of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at 24857.80 on 05-12-2024.

11- Corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 continuation with recent bottom formations at 23460.50 on 31-12-2024

12- Last 11 sessions trading between 23460.50-24226.70 after 277 points gap down opening on 19-12-2024.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Waves structure)

Corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" of previous Waves structure completed at 15183.40 on 17-06-2022 and from this level impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure begun which completed at 18887.60 on 01-12-2022 and from this level corrective Wave-2 started which completed at 16828.30 on 20-03-2023 and impulsive Wave-3 begun from this level.

Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 completed at 20222.40 on 15-09-20235 and from this level corrective Wave-A of "ABC" correction of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 started which completed at 19333.60 on 04-10-2023. Wave-B begun from this level which completed at 19849.80 on 17-10-2023 and Wave-C started which completed at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023. Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 begun from this level which completed with new life time top formations at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024 and corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 started from this level. 

Corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completed at 23263.20 on 21-11-2024 and Wave-B of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 begun from this levels which completed at 24792.30 on 13-12-2024 and from this levels corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 started which is now in continuation with recent bottom formations at 23460.50 on 31-12-2024 and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts. Last 11 sessions trading was between 23460.50-24226.70 after 277 points gap down opening below 24150 on 19-12-2024 and this huge gap was filled up after 483 points strong rally and Nifty closed above 24150 at 24188.7 on 02-01-2025. As finally sustaining beyond last 11 sessions trading range(23460.50-24226.70) will confirm the lenth of on going corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 and with it on going "ABC" correction also therefore should be watched for both these trends formation confirmations.  

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

Nifty-EOD Chart (03-Jan-2025):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Last 11 sessions trading between 23460.50-24226.70 after 277 points gap down opening on 19-12-2024.

21- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are rising towards Over bought zone.

3- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 75.04 & %D(3)- 58.75.

4- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in negative zone.

5- MACD(26,12)- -391.63 & EXP(9)- -290.57 & Divergence- -101.06

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

Technical positions of Short Term indicators are as follows:-

1- As in Stochastic its %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are rising towards Over bought zone and have not turned Over bought yet therefore it will be understood that this indicator is showing on going Short Term upward moves continuation possibility.

2- As in MACD its MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in negative zone therefore it will be understood that this indicator is confirming Downward Trend formation and signalling more downward moves possibility.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Averages)

Nifty-EOD Chart (03-Jan-2025):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

Averages:-

1- 5-Day SMA is today at 23845 

2- 21-Day SMA is today at 24170

3- 55-Day SMA is today at 24189

4- 100-Day SMA is today at 24626 

5- 200-Day SMA is today at 23899

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Averages)

As Nifty is trading between and near about Intermediate Term Trend decider 55-Day SMA and Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA for the last 12 sessions as well as hovering around Short Term Trend decider 21-Day SMA for the last 2 sessions therefore it will be understood that now all the trends are at stake. Finally sustaining beyond 55-Day SMA or 200-Day SMA will confirm next Trend formations and resultant that side decisive moves will beginning therefore it should be watched for all the trends formation and that side decisive moves beginning confirmations.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis

(03-Jan-2025)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (03-Jan-2025):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Whole day down moves in Bullish Falling Channels

2- Sharp up moves

3- 3 Times selling in sideways trading range.

4- Whole day actual trading between 23976-24196

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although flat opening but after that immediately downward moves started which remain continued till last minutes and Nifty closed 0.76% down also last Friday. As Whole day down moves were in Bullish Falling Channels which is a consolidation pattern also therefore once sharp up moves were seen but selling also developed 3 times in sideways trading range therefore whole day Mixed Patterns formations will be understood last Friday. 

As whole day down moves were in Bullish Falling Channels therefore up ward moves are expected within last Friday trading range but until complete consolidation patterns will not develop till then Nifty will not be able to move above last Friday highest and fresh selling will not mean correction continuation below last Friday lowest also therefore firstly sustaining beyond last Friday trading range should be watched in next week for 1st signal generation of next decisive moves beginning.

Conclusions

(After putting all studies together)

1- Long Term Trend is at stake.

2- Intermediate Term trend at stake.

3- Short Term Trend is at stake.

Now corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 of that Waves structure is in continuation with recent bottom formations at 23460.50 on 31-12-2024 which begun through its impulsive Wave-1 from 15183.40 on 17-06-2022. As no confirmation of on going Wave- C completion yet therefore firstly sustaining beyond levels will be watched in the coming week/weeks for its continuation/completion confirmations.

Although Short Term indicator Stochastic is showing signals of some more upward moves possibility in next week but another Short Term indicator MACD is confirming Downward Trend formations therefore finally fresh downward moves beginning possibility can not be ruled out after some upward moves.

As last Friday intraday trading was also seen with Mixed Patterns formations between 23976-24196 therefore firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched for 1st signal of next trend formations. It should be kept ion mind that finally sustaining beyond last 11 sessions trading range(23460.50-24226.70) will confirm the length of on going corrective Wave-C therefore should be watched for the life of on going "ABC" correction also.

Averages are suggesting that firstly Nifty will move between 55-Day SMA(today at 24189) and 200-Day SMA(today at 23899) in the coming week therefore finally sustaining beyond these 2 SMAs should be watched in the coming week/weeks for on going correction completion confirmations through sustaining above 55-Day SMA and/or correction continuation confirmations through sustaining below 200-Day SMA. 

Firstly and finally sustaining beyond following 3 crucial levels should be watched one by one in the coming week/weeks for next trend formations and that side decisive moves beginning confirmations:-    

1- Last Friday trading range(23976-24196)

2- Last 11 sessions trading range(23461-24226)

3- 55-Day SMA(today at 24189)-200-Day SMA(today at 23899)