Watch next supports,resistances & levels after Long Term Trend turning down confirmations
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Jan 13 to Jan 17,2025)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Jan-2025):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-C of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 and impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 beginning.
2- Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 completion with new life time top formations at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024 and Corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 of "ABC" correction beginning.
3- Corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at 23263.20 on 21-11-2024.
4- Corrective Wave-B of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at 24857.80 on 05-12-2024.
5- Corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 continuation with recent bottom formations at 23344.35 on 10-01-2025.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Waves structure)
Corrective Wave-C of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completed at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 and from this level impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 started which completed with new life time top formations at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024 and from this level corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 of "ABC" correction begun.
Corrective Wave-A completed at 23263.20 on 21-11-2024 and from this lvel Wave-B started which completed at 24857.80 on 05-12-2024. Corrective Wave-C begun from this level which is in continuation with recent bottom formations at 23344.35 on 10-01-2025 and no indication of its completion yet on EOD charts.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Jan-2025):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling in Over sold zone.
2- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 14.14 & %D(3)- 18.45.
3- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line upward and its both lines have started to rise in negative zone.
4- MACD(26,12)- -279.16 & EXP(9)- -373.75 & Divergence- 94.59
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Technical positions of Short Term indicators are as follows:-
1- As in Stochastic its %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling in Over sold zone therefore it will be understood that this indicator has not shown any upward move beginning signal yet. Let its both lines to move above Over sold zone after upward intersection then decisive upward moves will be seen.
2- As in MACD its MACD line has intersected Average line upward and its both lines have started to rise in negative zone therefore it will be understood that this indicator has generated first signal of Upward trend formations and resultant moves beginning.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Jan-2025):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
Averages:-
1- 5-Day SMA is today at 23594
2- 21-Day SMA is today at 23919
3- 55-Day SMA is today at 24082
4- 100-Day SMA is today at 24588
5- 200-Day SMA is today at 23940
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Averages)
Short and Intermediate Term Trends were already down and Long Term Trend has turned down in previous week after last 5 sessions closing below its decider 200-Day SMA which means that more downward moves will be seen in the coming weeks/months.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(10-Jan-2025)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (10-Jan-2025):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- Sharp fall in first half hour
2- Consolidation between 23345-23446
3- Sharp up
4- Selling between 23498-23601
5- Sharp fall
6- Consolidation between 23401-23446
7- Whole day actual trading between 23345-23596
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although firstly upward moves were seen after positive opening and Nifty traded 69 points up also but Nifty could not sustain and moved down sharply in first hour. As lower levels consolidation developed therefore sharp upward moves were seen in the next hours but selling was seen at higher levels hence again sharp fall was seen and again lower levels consolidation developed in last hour.
It is clear that both lower levels consolidation and higher levels selling was seen last Friday therefore whole day trading will be understood with Mixed Patterns formation between 23345-23596 hence Nifty will trade and prepare for next Short Term moves within and near about this trading range in the beginning of next week as well as finally sustaining beyond this trading range will confirm next Short Term moves beginning in next week.
Conclusions
(After putting all studies together)
1- Long Term Trend is at down.
2- Intermediate Term trend down.
3- Short Term Trend is down.
Corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 of that impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 is in continuation with recent bottom formations at 23344.35 on 10-01-2025 which started from 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 and no indication of its completion yet on EOD charts.
As Short Term indicator MACD has generated first signal of Upward trend formations and resultant showing upward moves beginning possibility but another Short Term indicator Stochastic is completely over sold and not producing Short Term upward moves signals therefore let Stochastic to generate clear upward moves beginning signals then decisive up moves beginning will be expected.
Fibonacci Retracement Crucial levels of Wave-(iii) of Wave-3(18837.80-26277.30) are as follows which should be watched for first signal of on going downward Trend continuation/completion:-
38.2%- 23,435 (Crucial Level)-Retraced
50.0%- 22,557 (Crucial Level)
61.8%- 21,679 (Crucial Level)
As all the Short to Long Term Averages are confirming that all the Trends are down after Long Term Trend turning down confirmations in previous week therefore more downward moves will be seen towards following supports in the coming weeks/months:-
1- 23298-23337
2- 23161-23206
3- 22961-23096
4- 22760-22871
5- 22291-22395
6- 21884-22191
7- 21502-21582
8- 21417-21500
Next resistances above last Friday closing are as follows which should be watched one by one for next upward/downward moves beginning confirmations:-
1- 23498-23601
2- 23603-23649
3- 23834-23877
4- 23892-24065
5- 24106-24143
6- 24191-24230
7- 24282-24314
Although Long Term Trend turning down confirmations and more downward moves will be seen but in the mean time Short and Intermediate Term upward moves will also be seen. In this situation it should be kept in mind that until Nifty will not sustain above Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA(today at 23940) till then decisive upward moves will not be seen and above mentioned next supports,resistances and levels should be watched one by one for next upward/downward moves beginning signals and confirmations.