Forceful break down will confirm deeper correction and break out will generate 1st signal of up moves beginning

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Apr 26 to Apr 30,2021)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis 

(Corrective Waves)

Nifty-EOD Chart (23-Apr-2021):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Nifty closed 646 Points up and closed at 14281.2 on Union Budget day(01-02-2021).

2- 132 Points gap support formation between 14337-14469 on 02-02-2021

3- Impulsive Wave-3 completion after new life time top formation at 15431.8 on 16-02-2021 and correction begun.

4- Corrective Wave-4 continuation with recent bottom formation at 14151.4 on 22-04-2021 and 7 new lowest formation in this correction.

A- 14635.0 on 22-02-2021 (1) 

B- 14467.8 on 26-02-2021 (2)

C- 14350.1 on 19-03-2021 (3)

D- 14264.4 on 25-03-2021 (4)

E- 14248.7 on 12-04-2021 (5)

F- 14191.4 on 19-04-2021 (6)

G- 14151.4 on 22-04-2021 (7)

5- 3 Falling trendlines

6- Gap of 02-02-2021(14337-14469) has been filled up after Nifty moving below 14337 on 25-03-2021.

7- Post Budget day 54 sessions sideways trading between 14152-15431 from 02-02-2021 to 23-04-2021.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

(Corrective Waves)

As Nifty closed at 14281.2 on Union Budget day(01-02-2021) after gaining 646 Points and on next day 132 Points gap support formation between 14337-14469 also therefore impulsive Wave-3 remained continued. 

Impulsive Wave-3 completed after new life time top formation at 15431.8 on 16-02-2021 corrective Wave-4 started which is in continuation with recent bottom formation at 14151.4 on 22-04-2021.

Although extreme panic due to sharp rise of Corona cases in India but 2020 like crashing situation was not seen and Corrective Wave-4 is being seen through 7 times new lowest with little new down moves during this correction.

As Corrective Wave-4 continuation and forceful break down is not being seen as well as down moves are slow therefore following patterns and levels should be watched in the coming weeks for next big moves confirmations:-

1- Sustaining above 3 Falling trend lines one by one will be strong indication of correction completion and confirmation will be sustaining above 15431.

2- Forceful break down of last 54 sessions lowest(14152) will be strong indication of deeper correction beginning.

Nifty-Last 11 Sessions intraday charts analysis

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Apr 07 to Apr 23,2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in last 11 Sessions intraday charts

1- Selling(Resistances) in last 11 Sessions  are as follows:-

A- 14354-14466

B- 14486-14509

C- 14528-14559

D- 14649-14697(Strong resistances)

E- 14698-14785(Gap resistances)  

F- 14821-14970 

2- Consolidation(Supports) in last 11 Sessions are as follows:-

A-14316-14354

B- 14192-14294

3- 11 Sessions actual trading between 14152-14984 

Conclusions from 11 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

Last 54 sessions trading between 14152-15431 and Nifty is trading at lower levels of this range below 15000 between 14152-14984 for the last 11 sessions.

Certainly there are multiple resistances above 15000 and above mentioned 6 resistances are also lying between 14354-14970 but above mentioned 2 supports are also between 14192-14354. 

As strong resistances at higher levels and lower levels comparatively much weaker supports therefore in fresh selling develops in next week then huge down moves will be seen subject to the condition of forceful breaking down of last 11 sessions trading range lowest(14152).

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis(23-Apr-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (23-Apr-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation in first hour between 14324-14354

2- Up moves with downward corrections

3- Selling between 14396-14461

4- Selling between 14354-14388

5- Volatility in last hour between 14274-14359

6- Whole day actual trading between 14274-14461

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although weaker opening last Friday but consolidation developed therefore up were seen which were with downward corrections hence remain continued. 

As higher levels selling in Mid-session and  again follow up selling after slipping from higher levels therefore sharp down moves below intraday lowest were seen.

85 points volatility in last hour was seen in which following points were observed:-

1- Lower levels supports were seen.

2- Last hour volatility(14274-14359) was below and above first hour consolidation range(14324-14354)

As lower levels supports and higher levels selling was seen last Friday therefore Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next decisive moves within and near about last Friday trading range(14274-14461) as well as sustaining it beyond will generate first indication of next decisive moves beginning.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

1- Long Term Trend is up.

2- Intermediate Term Trend is sideways between 14152-15421 for the last 54 sessions.

3- Short Term Trend is sideways between 14152-14697 for the last 8 sessions.

Corrective Wave-4 continuation and no indication of its completion yet. Although more than 3 times Corona cases this time in compassion to 2020 Corona cases but crashing like situation is not being seen and Wave-4 correction is without required force therefore supports getting at lower levels can not be ruled out. 

Nifty sideways trading ranges are as follows:-

1- Last 8 sessions trading between 14152-14697.

2- Last 24 sessions trading between 14152-14984.

3- Last 54 sessions trading between 14152-15431.

As 14152 is lowest of all 3 trading ranges and no immediate strong supports below it therefore its forceful break down will confirm deeper correction. Multiple resistances are lying above last Friday closing(14341.35) and up to 15431 therefore complete consolidation is required for fresh rally above it.

As immediate supports and resistances are lying between last 8 sessions trading range(14152-14697) and Nifty will have to trade and prepare for next decisive moves within this range therefore its preparation will be done in next week. Finally forceful break down of 14152 will confirm deeper correction and sustaining above 14697 will confirm first signal of next up moves beginning therefore should be firstly watched for its confirmations in next week.

 Follow up consolidation will generate up moves towards next resistances 

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market 

Outlook(23-04-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (22-Apr-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Whole day up moves with downward corrections

3- Whole day actual trading between 14152-14424

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following conclusive lines were told on 19-04-2021 in "Today trading range will confirm next decisive moves":-

1- Mixed Patterns formation between 14192-14382. 

2- firstly Nifty will have to trade and prepare for next decisive moves within and near about today trading range

3- finally sustaining it beyond should be firstly watched tomorrow for next decisive moves beginning confirmations.

Nifty closed between 14192-14382 after huge fall from higher levels on 20-04-2021 and closed little above it at 14406.15 after almost 6 hours trading within this range on 22-04-2021.

Although whole day consolidation was seen on 22-04-2021 through up moves with downward corrections but Nifty closed within resistances between 14369-14420. If follow up consolidation develops then rally will be seen towards following resistances:-

1- 14449-14466

2- 14486-14509

3- 14649-14697(Strong resistances)

 As busy therefore Stock Market Outlook of today(22-04-2021) is not being updated.

 Today trading range will confirm next decisive moves

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(20-04-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (19-Apr-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 14192-14248

2- Up moves with downward corrections

3- Consolidation between 14251-14294

4- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel

5- Selling between 14339-14382

6- Whole day actual trading between 14192-14382

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told on 17-04-2021 in "Watch levels for mentioned implications in 49 sessions sideways market":-

As good selling between 14649-14697 last Friday therefore expected that down moves will be seen below last Friday lowest(14560) in the beginning of next week. 

As was told on 17-04-2021 100% same happened today and Nifty opened,traded and closed below 14560 today after loosing 258.40(1.77%) points. 

Although huge gap down opening because panic developed due to sharp rise in Corona cases in India but lower levels consolidation between 14192-14248 and after that Up moves with downward corrections was seen therefore whole day up moves remained continued and closing was near the top of the day.

As firstly lower levels buying and selling also in the last two and half hour through up moves in Bearish Rising Channel and Selling between 14339-14382 therefore whole day today trading will be understood with Mixed Patterns formation between 14192-14382. It means that  firstly Nifty will have to trade and prepare for next decisive moves within and near about today trading range and finally sustaining it beyond should be firstly watched tomorrow for next decisive moves beginning confirmations.

Watch levels for mentioned implications in 49 sessions sideways market

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Apr 19 to Apr 23,2021)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis 

(Waves structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (16-Apr-2021):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Corrective Wave-C completion and Impulsive Wave-1 beginning from 7511.10 on 24-03-2020  

2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 11794.30 on 31-08-2020 and corrective Wave-2 beginning

3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 10790.20 on 24-09-2020 and Impulsive Wave-3 beginning

4- Impulsive Wave-3 completion after new life time top formation at 15431.8 on 16-02-2021

5- Corrective Wave-4 continuation with recent bottom formation at 14248.7 on 12-04-2021

6- Last 49 sessions sideways trading between 14249-15431.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Waves structure)

Waves structure which started through impulsive Wave-1 on 24-03-2020 from 7511.10 is in continuation. Its impulsive Wave-3 completed after new life time top formation at 15431.8 on 16-02-2021 and now its Corrective Wave-4 continuation with recent bottom formation at 14248.7 on 12-04-2021

Corrective Wave-4 continuation through last 49 sessions sideways trading between 14249-15431 and finally sustaining beyond this range will decide the life and length of on going correction which should be watched in the coming week/weeks for its confirmations.

Nifty-Weekly Chart Analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

Nifty-Weekly Chart (16-Apr-2021):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in Weekly charts

1- Impulsive Wave-5 completion at 12430.50 on 20-01-2020 and Wave-A of "corrective ABC Waves" beginning

2-Wave-A (11614.50 on 03-02-2020)

3-Wave-B (12246.70 on 14-02-2020)

4- Corrective Wave-C completion and Impulsive Wave-1 beginning from 7511.10 on 24-03-2020 

5-Wave-1 (11794.30 on 31-08-2020)

6-Wave-2 (10790.20 on 24-09-2020)

7- Impulsive Wave-3 completion after new life time top formation at 15431.8 on 16-02-2021

8- Corrective Wave-4 continuation with recent bottom formation at 14248.7 on 12-04-2021

9- Stochastic %K(5) is at 51.81 & %D(3) is at 44.75

10- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward 

11- MACD line has intersected Average line downward

 

Conclusions from Weekly chart analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

2020 Corona crash like "ABC" correction started after Impulsive Wave-5 completion at 12430.50 on 20-01-2020 and its Wave-C completed at 7511.10 on 24-03-2020.

Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure begun from 7511.10 on 24-03-2020 and its Impulsive Wave-3 finished after new life time top formation at 15431.8 on 16-02-2021. Now its corrective Wave-4 continuation with recent bottom formation at 14248.7 on 12-04-2021 and no indication of its completion yet.

As weekly MACD line has intersected Average line downward and both the lines are moving downward therefore showing downward trend but in Stochastic %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and showing up moves in Short Term. As both the indicators are showing adverse direction therefore directionless and sideways market will be firstly understood in next week.

Nifty-Last 19 Sessions 

intraday charts analysis

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Mar 18 to Apr 16,2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in last 19 Sessions intraday charts

1- Selling(Resistances) in last 19 Sessions  are as follows:-

A- 14649-14697

B- 14698-14785(Gap resistances) 

C- 14704-14778 

D- 14821-14970 

2- Consolidation(Supports) in last 19 Sessions are as follows:-

A- 14354-14457

B- 14307-14357 

C- 14249-14360

3- 132 Points gap down previous week opening and after that trading between 14249-14697 with first 3 sessions lower levels buying and last session higher selling.

4- Sideways trading in last 19 Sessions are between 14249-14984

5- 19 Sessions actual trading between 14249-14984 

Conclusions from 19 Sessions 

intra day chart analysis 

Last 49 sessions sideways trading between 14249-15431 and Nifty is trading at lower levels of this range below 15000 between 14249-14984 for the last 19 sessions.

Certainly there are multiple resistances above 15000 and above mentioned 4 resistances are also lying between 14649-14970 but above mentioned 3 supports are also between 14249-14457. 

As Nifty traded between 14249-14697 after 132 Points gap down in previous week and after that lower levels consolidation was seen in first 3 sessions and good selling was seen in last session therefore immediate supports and resistances are lying within last week trading range. 

Blank zone will be understood between 14457-14649 because resistances are above it and supports are below it. As firstly follow up moves within and near about 14457-14649 as well as finally sustaining it beyond  will generate first signal of next big moves beginning therefore should be firstly watched in next week. 

As finally sustaining beyond or forceful break out/down of last 19 Sessions trading range(14249-14984) will confirm next big moves beginning therefore should be watched in the coming week/weeks. 

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis

(16-Apr-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (16-Apr-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel(immediate Resistances)

2- Selling between 14649-14697

3- Whole day actual trading between 14560-14697

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although most time positive zone trading after Green opening and closing with 0.25% gains also last Friday but good selling was seen at higher levels between 14560-14697 therefore this range will be immediate Resistances of Nifty. 

Until Nifty will not sustain above 14697 after complete consolidation till then decisive up moves will not be seen and once sustaining below 14649 after fresh selling will mean Short Term Correction beginning. 

As good selling between 14649-14697 last Friday therefore expected that down moves will be seen below last Friday lowest(14560) in the beginning of next week.  

Conclusions 

(After Putting All Studies Together)

1- Long Term Trend is up.

2- Intermediate Term Trend is sideways between 14249-15421 for the last 49 sessions.

3- Short Term Trend is sideways between 14249-14984 for the last 19 sessions.

Now corrective Wave-4 continuation with recent bottom formation at 14248.7 on 12-04-2021 and no indication of its completion yet. 

As corrective Wave-4 correction is sideways between 14249-15421 for the last 49 sessions therefore finally sustaining beyond this range will decide the life and length of Wave-4 in following manner:-  

1- Sustaining above 15421 will confirm corrective Wave-4 completion and Impulsive Wave-5 beginning.

2- Sustaining below 14249 will confirm breaking down of last 49 sessions like big trading range and resultant deeper correction of Wave-4 beginning.

 

Although lower levels consolidation was seen in first 3 sessions of previous week but whole day good selling developed in the 4th session of previous week i.e. last Friday as well as immediate supports and resistances are lying within previous week trading range(14249-14697) therefore firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched in next week for 1st strong signal of next above mentioned moves beginning. 

As 49 sessions sideways market therefore just note down and Watch above mentioned levels one by one according to above mentioned implications.

 Rally continuation towards next gap resistance

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(16-04-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (15-Apr-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- 100 Points sharp fall in 7 minutes after positive opening

2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels

3- Consolidation between 14406-14457(immediate supports)

4- Bullish Falling Wedge pattern formations

5- Strong up moves in last hour 

6- Whole day actual trading between 14354-14597

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told at 02:26 AM on 13-04-2021 in "Level will confirm next big moves":-

 

"Sustaining above 14360 will confirm a 

Pull Back rally towards next resistances"

Although sentiment was too much depressed due to more than 2 Lac cases of Corona in India but positive opening and firstly traded also 15 minutes in Green zone with moderate gains but 100 Points sharp fall in 7 minutes was also seen after that.

As consolidation developed firstly through Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels and after that between 14406-14457 as well as Bullish Falling Wedge pattern formations therefore strong  up were seen moves in last hour. Until Nifty will not sustain below 14406 after complete selling till then decisive down moves will not be seen because lower levels good consolidation today and rally will remain continued towards next gap resistances between 14653-14785.

 As busy therefore Stock Market Outlook of today(15-04-2021) is not being updated.

 Level will confirm next big moves

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(13-04-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (12-Apr-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- 330 Points crash in first 6 minutes

2- Down moves with upward corrections

3- Last 3 hours sideways trading between 14249-14360

4- Whole day actual trading between 14249-14652

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told on 10-03-2021 in "Finally 45 sessions range break out Will generate huge moves and till then trade according to given levels":-

1- Sufficiently good selling patterns formations in last 2 sessions of previous week and if follow up selling develops then down moves below last 3 sessions lowest(14650) will be seen in the coming 2/3 sessions of next week.

2- down moves below last Friday lowest are expected in the beginning of next week.

Although up moves were seen in previous week but intraday patterns were showing selling patterns therefore we posted following topics in last week:-

Topic name for 09-03-2021 Outlook was- "Follow up complete selling will mean sharp fall"

Topic name for 08-03-2021 Outlook was- "14712 will confirm  sharp fall"

Topic name for 07-03-2021 Outlook was- "Correction continuation expectations towards next supports"

We daily told in last week only and only for Correction continuation and sharp fall which was seen on 12-03-2021 when Nifty was once 586 points down.

Nifty crashed 330 Points in first 6 minutes and after that selling remained continued through Down moves with upward corrections. 

As minor supports at lower levels and last 3 hours sideways trading between 14249-14360 also therefore firstly sustaining beyond this range sgould be watched in the coming sessions because:-

1- Sustaining above 14360 will confirm a Pull Back rally towards next resistances.

2- Sustaining below 14249 will confirm breaking down of last 46 sessions like big trading range which will result huge fall.

As sustaining beyond 14249 will confirm next big moves therefore should be firstly watched in the coming sessions.

 Finally 45 sessions range break out Will generate huge moves and till then trade according to given levels

Technical Analysis,Research & 

Weekly Outlook(Apr 12 to Apr 16,2021)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis(Averages)

Nifty-EOD Chart (09-Apr-2021):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-3 completion indications at 15431.8 on 16-02-2021

2- Last 45 sessions sideways correction with recent bottom formation at 14264.4 on 25-03-2021

3- Double top formations

4- Averages:-

A- 5-Day SMA is today at  14769

B- 13-Day SMA is today at 14706

C- 55-Day SMA is today at 14785

D- 200-Day SMA is today at 12809 

5- Nifty is hovering around Short and Intermediate Term Average the last 34 sessions(5,13 & 55-Day SMA)

Conclusions from Weekly chart analysis(Averages)

As last 45 sessions sideways correction with recent bottom formation at 14264.4 on 25-03-2021 therefore impulsive Wave-3 completion indications at 15431.8 on 16-02-2021.

Nifty is hovering around Short and Intermediate Term Average the last 34 sessions(5,13 & 55-Day SMA) and decisive direction of these Averages will confirm next big moves.

Nifty-Weekly Chart Analysis 

(Stochastic & MACD)

Nifty-EOD Chart (09-Apr-2021):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in Weekly charts

1- Stochastic %K(5) is at 78.45 & %D(3) is at 70.82

2- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line up and moving towards Overbought zone

3- MACD line has intersected Average line upward

4- Last 45 sessions sideways trading between 14265-15431 

 

Conclusions from Weekly chart analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

As upward intersection in both MACD and Stochastic therefore suggesting some up moves but Stochastic is just below Overbought zone therefore these up moves may fuse also.

Last 45 sessions sideways trading between 14265-15431 and Nifty is preparing for next big moves within this range as well as finally sustaining beyond this range will confirm it which should be watched in the coming week/weeks.

Nifty-Last 3 Sessions intraday charts analysis

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Apr 07 to Apr 09,2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in last 3 Sessions intraday charts

1- sideways trading between 14717-14805 on 07-04-2021

2- sideways trading between 14777-14879 on 07-04-2021

3- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel on 08-04-2021

4- Selling between 14929-14984 on 08-04-2021 

5- Selling between 14848-14918 on 09-04-2021

6- Selling between 14822-14857 on 09-04-2021

7- 3 Sessions actual trading between 14650 -14984 

Conclusions from 3 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

As accommodative stance extension by RBI in its Credit Policy therefore up moves were seen despite sideways trading on 07-04-2021 and these up moves remained continued next day also. 

Sufficiently good selling patterns formations in last 2 sessions of previous week and if follow up selling develops then down moves below last 3 sessions lowest(14650) will be seen in the coming 2/3 sessions of next week.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis(09-Apr-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (09-Apr-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 14848-14918

2- Sharp fall

3- Selling between 14822-14857

4- Whole day actual trading between 14786-14918

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As whole day good selling last Friday therefore down moves below last Friday lowest are expected in the beginning of next week.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Waves structure of Nifty EOD chart was updated in previous weekly outlook and no material change in its structure since then therefore not being posted in this Weekly Outlook.

1- Long Term Trend is up.

2- Intermediate Term Trend is sideways between 14265-15421 for the last 45 sessions.

3- Short Term Trend is sideways.

That correction which started after impulsive Wave-3 completion at 15431.8 on 16-02-2021,is very much on in sideways manner and no indication of its completion yet because Nifty closed at 14834.85 last Friday which is almost in the middle of last 45 sessions trading range(14265-15421) as well as following multiple supports and resistances are lying below and above last Friday closing.

Next supports of Nifty are as follows:-

1- 14736-14771

2- 14670-14722

3- 14502-14546

4- 14424-14463

5- 14365-14390

6- 14272-14314

Next resistances of Nifty are as follows:-

1- 14848-14918

2- 14929-14984

3- 14997-15046

4- 15158-15196

5- 15201-15241  

6- 15262-15319

7- 15335-15421

As above supports and resistances therefore Nifty has to prepare for any side one sided moves which will be done in coming week/weeks. Let market prepare then will be updated according to coming sessions intraday charts patterns formations and till then trading should be done after keeping in mind above given supports and resistances. 

It is confirm that finally sustaining beyond last 45 sessions trading range(14265-15421) will generate huge one sided moves and till then trading should be done according to 45 sessions sideways market levels(supports and resistances). 

 Follow up complete selling will mean sharp fall

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(09-04-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (08-Apr-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel

2- Selling between 14929-14984 

3- Sharp fall in last hour

4- Whole day actual trading between 14822-14984

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As most Asian markets were trading strong therefore strong up moves were seen but higher levels selling developed between 14929-14984 and before it up moves were also in Bearish Rising Channel hence sharp fall in last hour.

Although up moves in all four sessions of this week but clear consolidation patterns were not seen and some selling also developed therefore if follow up complete selling develops in the coming sessions then sharp fall will be seen and its confirmation will be sustaining below 14712.

 14712 will confirm  sharp fall

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(08-04-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (07-Apr-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Pre RBI Credit Policy sideways trading between 14717-14805

2- Jump after accommodative stance extension by RBI 

3- Post RBI Credit Policy sideways trading between 14777-14879

4- Whole day actual trading between 14650-14879

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Selling was seen between 14712-14787 in last 2 sessions and Nifty traded sideways within and little above it up to 14805 before  RBI Credit Policy.

As accommodative stance extension by RBI therefore Nifty jumped and last 4 hours trading was sideways seen 14777-14879.

Although today closing was 132 points up but some selling was also seen therefore if fresh selling develops tomorrow then sharp fall will be seen in the coming sessions and its confirmation will be sustaining below 14712.

 Correction continuation expectations 

towards next supports

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(07-04-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (06-Apr-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 14712-14779

2- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channels

3- Whole day actual trading between 14574-14779

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told at 01:17 AM on 06-04-2021 in "Immediate Resistances Will confirm today started Pull Back rally continuation":-

Firstly sustaining above 14787 should be watched tomorrow for today started Pull Back rally continuation confirmations towards those resistance 

Firstly sustaining above 14787 was told 

and today highest was just below it at 14779.10.

Selling was seen between 14748-14787 yesterday and follow up selling was seen within and below it today between 14712-14779 therefore yesterday resistance range has become stronger and immediate resistance will be between 14712-14787 and:-

1- Until Nifty will not sustain above 14787 after complete consolidation till then decisive up moves will not be seen above 14787

2- Once sustaining below 14712 will mean Short Term correction towards following next supports:-

1- 14460-14546 

2- 14424-14463

3- 14365-14390

4- 14272-14314

As yesterday resistance range has become stronger today therefore correction continuation is expected towards above mentioned next supports.

 Immediate Resistances Will confirm today started Pull Back rally continuation

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(06-04-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (05-Apr-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- More than 100 points fall in first 2 minutes after negative opening

2- Selling between 14748-14787(immediate Resistances)

3- More than 300 points crash in 20 minutes

4- Support between 4460-14535

5- Slow up moves in last 4 hours

6- Whole day actual trading between 14460-14849

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As panic developed due Corona cases surpassing 1 Lac in India therefore huge more than 400 points crash in first 2 hours. 

Although support between 4460-14535 amid more than 200 points recovery from lower lvels also in last 4 hours but these up moves were slow therefore until Nifty will not sustain above immediate resistances(14787) till then fresh up moves will not be seen. 

Firstly sustaining above 14787 should be watched tomorrow for today started Pull Back rally continuation confirmations towards those resistance which were updated in weekly Outlook on 03-04-2021.

Level will confirm deeper correction 

amid Corona panic

Post-open Outlook(05-04-2021)

As Corona cases crossed 1 Lac in India and panic developed because from previous week Corona cases are increasing at much faster speed than last year therefore nervousness developed and resultant down moves are being seen in Indian markets.

If Corona situation worsen in same previous week like speed then keep in mind following conclusive line and level which was updated on 03-04-2021 in "Fate of next big moves will be according to levels break out"

2- Finally sustaining below 14265 will mean more than 10% down moves after more than 40 sessions like big trading range broken down and resultant deeper correction beginning confirmations.

 Fate of next big moves will be according to levels break out

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Apr 05 to Apr 09,2021)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Waves structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (01-Apr-2021):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Corrective Wave-C completion and Impulsive Wave-1 beginning from 7511.10 on 24-03-2020  

2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 11794.30 on 31-08-2020 and corrective Wave-2 beginning

3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 10790.20 on 24-09-2020 and Impulsive Wave-3 beginning

4- Impulsive Wave-3 completion indications after new life time top formation at 15431.8 on 16-02-2021

5- Correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 14264.4 on 25-03-2021

6- Last 40 sessions sideways trading between 14265-15431.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Waves structure)

Impulsive Wave-1 started on 24-03-2020 from 7511.10 and its impulsive Wave-3 completion strong indications developed after new life time top formation at 15431.8 on 16-02-2021.

The correction which started from 15431.8 is in continuation for the last 30 sessions with recent bottom formations at 14264.4 on 25-03-2021 and no confirmation of its completion yet. 

Last 40 sessions sideways trading between 14265-15431 and finally sustaining beyond this range will confirm the life and length of on going correction which should be watched in the coming week/weeks.

Nifty-Weekly Chart Analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

Nifty-EOD Chart (01-Apr-2021):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in Weekly charts

1- Stochastic %K(5) is at 38.44 & %D(3) is at 44.41

2- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and moving towards Oversold zone

3- Stochastic- %K(5) line has flattened

4- MACD line has intersected Average line downward

5- MACD line has flattened

 

Conclusions from Weekly chart analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

Although in Weekly Stochastic %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and moving towards Oversold zone also but %K(5) line has flattened therefore suggesting to wait for next decisive moves beginning confirmations. 

Same situation is in Weekly MACD also because MACD line has intersected Average line downward and MACD line has flattened therefore MACD is also suggesting to wait for next decisive moves beginning confirmations. 

Nifty-Last 10 Sessions 

intraday charts analysis

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Nar 18 to Apr 01,2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in last 10 Sessions intraday charts

1- Last 10 sessions actual trading between 14265-14883 

2- Consolidation(Supports) in last 10 Sessions are as follows:-

A- 14794-14825

B- 14670-14722

C- 14502-14546

D- 14424-14463

E- 14365-14390

F- 14272-14314

3- Last Thursday closing at the top of last 10 Sessions  

Conclusions from 10 

Sessions intra day chart analysis 

Previous 10 sessions actual trading between 14265-14883 and last Thursday closing was at the top of last 10 Sessions as well as multiple above given lower levels supports have been developed therefore up moves will be seen in the beginning of next week.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis

(01-Apr-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (01-Apr-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels

2- Up moves with downward corrections

3- Whole day actual trading between 14693-14883

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although first 2 hours down moves after more than 100 points positive opening but in Bullish Falling Channels therefore after that whole day strong up moves were seen which were with downward corrections hence whole day consolidation will be understood last Thursday and firstly rally continuation will be seen in next week.

Conclusions 

(After Putting All Studies Together)

1- Long Term Trend is up.

2- Intermediate Term Trend is sideways between 14265-15421 for the last 40 sessions.

3- Short Term Trend is up.

Last 40 sessions sideways trading between 14265-15431 and last Thursday closing was near the center of this range at 14867.35 which means that Intermediate Term Trend is completely sideways. 6 Supports within this range below 14867.35 have been updated above and 6 resistances above it are as follows:-

1- 14901-14949

2- 14997-15046

3- 15158-15196

4- 15201-15241  

5- 15262-15319

6- 15335-15421

As multiple supports and resistance are below and above previous weekly closing(14867.35) as well as Weekly indicators(Stochastic and MACD) are suggesting to wait for next decisive moves beginning confirmations therefore last 40 sessions sideways Nifty will have to trade and prepare for next decisive moves between 14265-15421 which will be done in next week also. Let Nifty prepare then will be firstly decided according to intraday charts patterns formations and finally sustaining beyond 14265-15421 in following manner:-

1- Finally sustaining above 15421 will mean fresh strong rally after Intermediate Term correction completion. 

2- Finally sustaining below 14265 will mean more than 10% down moves after more than 40 sessions like big trading range broken down and resultant deeper correction beginning confirmations. 

At finally fate of next big moves will be according to sustaining beyond last 40 sessions trading range(14265-15421) therefore should be watched in the coming week/weeks and till then sideways market will be understood and not trending. 

9 Hours trading levels will confirm 

next big moves

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(01-04-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Mar 30 & Mar 31,2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in last 2 Sessions intraday charts

1- Little less than 9 hours trading between 14709-14781 in last 2 sessions

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (31-Mar-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- 86 Points fall in first 15 seconds 

2- Little less than 6 Hours trading between 14709-14781 

3- Last half hour trading and closing below 14709 

4- Whole day actual trading between 14671-14813

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

3 Hours consolidation between 14709-14781 yesterday and little less than 6 Hours trading was seen between within same this range today after 86 points sharp fall in first 15 seconds. 

As little less than 9 Hours trading between 14709-14781 in last 2 sessions and in which consolidation was seen within this range yesterday but some selling was also seen within same this range today therefore sustaining beyond this range should be firstly watched tomorrow for next big moves confirmations.

 3rd Resistance range will decide the fate of Pull Back Rally

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(31-03-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (30-Mar-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Up moves after gap up opening

2- 3 Hours consolidation between 14709-14781(immediate supports)

3- Rally continuation in Mid-session

4- Last hours sideways trading between 14827-14876

5- Whole day actual trading between 14618-14876

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following conclusive lines were told on 28-03-2021 in "Crucial levels will confirm the life of on going correction":-

intraday charts of last 2 sessions are showing consolidation therefore some up moves will be seen in the beginning of next week towards following resistances:-

1- 14610-14675

2- 14711-14752

3- 14792-14875

Up moves were seen today after gap up opening and rally remained continued in Mid-session also after fresh 3 hours consolidation within and near about above mentioned 2nd resistance range.

3rd Resistance was updated between 14792-14875 and Nifty traded sideways last hours within this resistance range as well as closed within it at 14845.10 therefore firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched tomorrow for last 2 sessions Pull Back Rally continuation/completion.

As following multiple resistances are lying above today highest therefore complete fresh consolidation is required for rally continuation above it(14876.30):- 

1- 14901-14949

2- 14997-15046

3- 15158-15196

4- 15201-15241  

5- 15262-15319

6- 15335-15421 

Fresh selling between or near about 14792-14875 will mean down moves towards following supports after Pull Back Rally completion:-

1- 14709-14781

2- 14424-14463

3- 14365-14390

4- 14272-14314

5- 13817-13865 

6- 13725-13776

7- 13606-13701

As finally sustaining beyond 3rd resistance range(14792-14875) will decide the fate of last 2 sessions Pull Back Rally therefore should be firstly watched in the coming sessions for its confirmations

Crucial levels will confirm the 

life of on going correction

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Mar 30 to Apr 01,2021)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

Nifty-EOD Chart(26-Mar-2021):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Stochastic %K(5) is at 29.03 & %D(3) is at 42.29

2- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward

3- MACD line has intersected Average line downward

4- Last 37 sessions sideways trading range between 14468-15421 which was broken down 3 times in last 2 weeks  but closing was within at 14507.30 after on 26-03-2021 after lowest formation at 14264.4 on 25-03-2021  

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

As Waves structure from Impulsive Wave-1 beginning(7511.10 on 24-03-2020) was updated in previous weekly Outlook and no material change in it since then therefore not being posted in this Outlook.

Last 37 sessions trading will be understood sideways between 14468-15421 because 36 sessions including last Friday closing was within this range and only one session closing was below it on 25-03-2021 as well only 3 sessions of previous 2 weeks lowests were below 14468. 

As 37 sessions like big trading range valid break out will generate huge one sided moves therefore should be firstly watched in the coming week/weeks for its confirmations.

As indicators indicators are showing downward signals in following manner therefore down moves are expected in next week:-

1- As Stochastic is moving down from overbought zone and  %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward therefore suggesting more down moves in Short Term.

2- MACD line has intersected Average line downward therefore showing downward trend.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Averages)

Nifty-EOD Chart (26-Mar-2021:-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-3 completion after new life time highest top formation at 15431.75 on 16-02-2021 and corrective Wave-4 beginning

2- Corrective Wave-4 continuation with recent bottom formation at 14264.4 on 25-03-2021

3- Double top formations

4- Averages:-

A- 5-Day SMA is today at  14586

B- 21-Day SMA is today at 14839

C- 55-Day SMA is today at 14733

D- 200-Day SMA is today at 12623

5- Last 5 sessions closing below Short Term Averages(5 & 21-Day SMA)

6- Last 2 sessions hovering around Intermediate Term Average(55-Day SMA)

Conclusions from EOD

chart analysis (Averages)

As last 37 sessions corrective Wave-4 continuation with Double top formations and previous 10 sessions closing was also below Short Term Averages(5 & 21-Day SMA) therefore giving Short Term trend turning down confirmations. 

Strong signals of Intermediate Term trend turning down also because last 3 sessions closing was below its decider 55-Day SMA. Let Nifty to sustain below 55-Day SMA then deeper correction will be seen because that will be breaking down confirmation of last 37 sessions like big trading range also.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Wave-3 Fibonacci retracement)

Nifty-EOD Chart (26-Mar-2021):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 10790.20 on 24-09-2020 and Impulsive Wave-3 beginning

2- Impulsive Wave-3 completion after new life time highest top formation at 15431.75 on 16-02-2021

3- Corrective Wave-4 continuation with recent bottom formation at 14264.4 on 25-03-2021 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

(Fibonacci retracement levels)

Corrective Wave-4 continuation which will be seen according to following Fibonacci Retracement levels of Wave-3(10790.20-15431.75):-

1- 13.0%- 14,828.40(Corrected)

2- 23.6%- 14,336.34(Corrected)

3- 27.0%- 14,178.60

4- 38.2%- 13,658.68(Crucial)

5- 50.0%- 13,110.97(Crucial)

6- 61.8%- 12,563.27(Crucial)

7- 70.7%- 12,150.20

8- 76.4%- 11,885.60

9- 78.6%- 11,783.50 

10-88.6%- 11,319.30 

Nifty-Last 2 Sessions 

intraday charts analysis

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Mar 25 & Mar 26,2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in last 2 Sessions intraday charts

1- More than 100 points sharp fall in first 15 minutes on 25-03-2021

2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels on 25-03-2021

3- Huge volatility in last 3 hours on 25-03-2021

4- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels on 25-03-2021

5- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels on 25-03-2021

6- 181 Points strong opening on 26-03-2021

7- Whole day Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels on 26-03-2021 

8- Whole day slow up moves on 26-03-2021

9- 2 Sessions actual trading between 14265-14575 

Conclusions from 2 Sessions

intra day chart analysis 

As good consolidation through more than 3 hours Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels therefore 235 points jump and after that huge volatility was seen on 25-03-2021.  

Although again good consolidation through whole day Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels but higher levels selling was also seen through whole day slow up moves on 26-03-2021 therefore sustaining above last 2 sessions highest(14575) is must with fresh consolidation for last Friday started rally continuation confirmations.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

1- Long Term Trend is up.

2- Intermediate Term Trend is down.

3- Short Term Trend turning down Strong signals.

Wave-3 correction started after double top formations which is very much on and 23.6% retracement(14336.34) has been completed during this correction. 

Although 37 sessions like big trading range(14468-15421) was sharply broken down on 25-03-2021 and closing was much below it at 14324.9 also that day but Nifty again closed within this range next day i.e. 25-03-2021 which means that 37 sessions trading range broken down confirmation is still required. As last 37 sessions trading range breaking down confirmation will mean much deeper correction therefore firstly sustaining beyond 14468 should be firstly watched in the coming week.

Indicators are suggesting more down moves and Averages are also telling more weakness  but intraday charts of last 2 sessions are showing consolidation therefore some up moves will be seen in the beginning of next week towards following resistances:-

1- 14610-14675

2- 14711-14752

3- 14792-14875

Next supports below last Friday highest are as follows:-

1- 14424-14463

2- 14365-14390

3- 14272-14314

4- 13817-13865 

5- 13725-13776

6- 13606-13701

As Nifty is still trading within crucial range between 14468-15421 for the last 37 sessions and will trade also within this range in next week for next decisive moves preparation therefore sustaining it beyond this  should be firstly watched for the life of on going correction confirmations.