Crucial levels will confirm the
life of on going correction
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Mar 30 to Apr 01,2021)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart(26-Mar-2021):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Stochastic %K(5) is at 29.03 & %D(3) is at 42.29
2- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward
3- MACD line has intersected Average line downward
4- Last 37 sessions sideways trading range between 14468-15421 which was broken down 3 times in last 2 weeks but closing was within at 14507.30 after on 26-03-2021 after lowest formation at 14264.4 on 25-03-2021
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
As Waves structure from Impulsive Wave-1 beginning(7511.10 on 24-03-2020) was updated in previous weekly Outlook and no material change in it since then therefore not being posted in this Outlook.
Last 37 sessions trading will be understood sideways between 14468-15421 because 36 sessions including last Friday closing was within this range and only one session closing was below it on 25-03-2021 as well only 3 sessions of previous 2 weeks lowests were below 14468.
As 37 sessions like big trading range valid break out will generate huge one sided moves therefore should be firstly watched in the coming week/weeks for its confirmations.
As indicators indicators are showing downward signals in following manner therefore down moves are expected in next week:-
1- As Stochastic is moving down from overbought zone and %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward therefore suggesting more down moves in Short Term.
2- MACD line has intersected Average line downward therefore showing downward trend.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (26-Mar-2021:-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Impulsive Wave-3 completion after new life time highest top formation at 15431.75 on 16-02-2021 and corrective Wave-4 beginning
2- Corrective Wave-4 continuation with recent bottom formation at 14264.4 on 25-03-2021
3- Double top formations
4- Averages:-
A- 5-Day SMA is today at 14586
B- 21-Day SMA is today at 14839
C- 55-Day SMA is today at 14733
D- 200-Day SMA is today at 12623
5- Last 5 sessions closing below Short Term Averages(5 & 21-Day SMA)
6- Last 2 sessions hovering around Intermediate Term Average(55-Day SMA)
Conclusions from EOD
chart analysis (Averages)
As last 37 sessions corrective Wave-4 continuation with Double top formations and previous 10 sessions closing was also below Short Term Averages(5 & 21-Day SMA) therefore giving Short Term trend turning down confirmations.
Strong signals of Intermediate Term trend turning down also because last 3 sessions closing was below its decider 55-Day SMA. Let Nifty to sustain below 55-Day SMA then deeper correction will be seen because that will be breaking down confirmation of last 37 sessions like big trading range also.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Wave-3 Fibonacci retracement)
Nifty-EOD Chart (26-Mar-2021):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 10790.20 on 24-09-2020 and Impulsive Wave-3 beginning
2- Impulsive Wave-3 completion after new life time highest top formation at 15431.75 on 16-02-2021
3- Corrective Wave-4 continuation with recent bottom formation at 14264.4 on 25-03-2021
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Fibonacci retracement levels)
Corrective Wave-4 continuation which will be seen according to following Fibonacci Retracement levels of Wave-3(10790.20-15431.75):-
1- 13.0%- 14,828.40(Corrected)
2- 23.6%- 14,336.34(Corrected)
3- 27.0%- 14,178.60
4- 38.2%- 13,658.68(Crucial)
5- 50.0%- 13,110.97(Crucial)
6- 61.8%- 12,563.27(Crucial)
7- 70.7%- 12,150.20
8- 76.4%- 11,885.60
9- 78.6%- 11,783.50
10-88.6%- 11,319.30
Nifty-Last 2 Sessions
intraday charts analysis
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Mar 25 & Mar 26,2021):-
Technical Patterns formation in last 2 Sessions intraday charts
1- More than 100 points sharp fall in first 15 minutes on 25-03-2021
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels on 25-03-2021
3- Huge volatility in last 3 hours on 25-03-2021
4- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels on 25-03-2021
5- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels on 25-03-2021
6- 181 Points strong opening on 26-03-2021
7- Whole day Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels on 26-03-2021
8- Whole day slow up moves on 26-03-2021
9- 2 Sessions actual trading between 14265-14575
Conclusions from 2 Sessions
intra day chart analysis
As good consolidation through more than 3 hours Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels therefore 235 points jump and after that huge volatility was seen on 25-03-2021.
Although again good consolidation through whole day Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels but higher levels selling was also seen through whole day slow up moves on 26-03-2021 therefore sustaining above last 2 sessions highest(14575) is must with fresh consolidation for last Friday started rally continuation confirmations.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
1- Long Term Trend is up.
2- Intermediate Term Trend is down.
3- Short Term Trend turning down Strong signals.
Wave-3 correction started after double top formations which is very much on and 23.6% retracement(14336.34) has been completed during this correction.
Although 37 sessions like big trading range(14468-15421) was sharply broken down on 25-03-2021 and closing was much below it at 14324.9 also that day but Nifty again closed within this range next day i.e. 25-03-2021 which means that 37 sessions trading range broken down confirmation is still required. As last 37 sessions trading range breaking down confirmation will mean much deeper correction therefore firstly sustaining beyond 14468 should be firstly watched in the coming week.
Indicators are suggesting more down moves and Averages are also telling more weakness but intraday charts of last 2 sessions are showing consolidation therefore some up moves will be seen in the beginning of next week towards following resistances:-
1- 14610-14675
2- 14711-14752
3- 14792-14875
Next supports below last Friday highest are as follows:-
1- 14424-14463
2- 14365-14390
3- 14272-14314
4- 13817-13865
5- 13725-13776
6- 13606-13701
As Nifty is still trading within crucial range between 14468-15421 for the last 37 sessions and will trade also within this range in next week for next decisive moves preparation therefore sustaining it beyond this should be firstly watched for the life of on going correction confirmations.