Tax free Union-Budget led Rally continuation above 15000

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Feb 08 to Feb 12,2021)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis 

(Waves structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (05-Feb-2021):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Corrective Wave-C completion and Impulsive Wave-1 beginning from 7511.10 on 24-03-2020  

2- Wave-i of Wave-1(9889.05 on 30-04-2020)

3- Wave-ii of Wave-1(8806.75 on 18-05-2020)

4- Wave-iii of Wave-1(11317.80 on 28-07-2020)

5- Wave-iv of Wave-1(10882.30 on 03-08-2020)

6- Wave-v of Wave-1(11794.30 on 31-08-2020) and Wave-2 beginning

7- Wave-A of Wave-2(11185.10 on 09-09-2020)

8- Wave-B of Wave-2(11618.10 on 16-09-2020)

9- Wave-C of Wave-2(10790.20 on 24-09-2020) and Wave-3 beginning

10- Wave-i of Wave-3(12025.50 on 15-10-2020)

11- Wave-ii of Wave-3(11535.50 on 30-10-2020)

12- Wave-iii of Wave-3(14753.50 on 21-01-2021)

13- Wave-iv of Wave-3(13596.80 on 29-01-2021)

14- Wave-v of Wave-3 continuation with new life time highest top formation at 15014.65 on 05-02-2021

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Waves structure)

Maximum target of previously given Waves structure was at 14754.25 but Nifty moved above it in last week therefore Waves structure has been recounted and has been done in given EOD chart.

As per new Waves structure Wave-v of Wave-3 continuation with recent top formation at 15014.65 on 05-02-2021 and no indication of its completion yet.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Stochastic)

Nifty-EOD Chart (05-Feb-2021):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-3 continuation with new life time highest top formation at 15014.65 on 05-02-2021

2- Stochastic-%K(5) is at 95.24 & %D(3) is at 92.63

Conclusions from EOD 

chart analysis (Stochastic)

Wave-3 continuation with new life time highest top formation at 15014.65 but Short Term indicator Stochastic is Overbought therefore first signal of Short Term correction beginning. 

As Stochastic has not shown negative divergence and %K is also above %D as well as it has not shown negative divergence therefore Short Term correction will not be seen immediately,let these developments happen then will be seen.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis

(05-Feb-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (05-Feb-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 14972-15014

2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel

3- Selling between 14948-14987

4- Mixed Patterns formation between 14900-14959

5- Whole day actual trading between 14865-15014

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although new life time high formation above 15000 but selling developed therefore down moves were seen in first 2 hours. As these Down moves were in Bullish Falling Channel therefore some up moves developed but again follow up selling developed below 15000.

As last 2 hours trading was also with Mixed Patterns formation between 14900-14959 therefore whole day last Friday trading will be understood with Mixed Patterns formation between 14865-15014. 

Firstly Nifty will have to trade and prepare for next decisive moves between 14865-15014 because both buying and selling patterns were formed within it last Friday as well as finally sustaining it beyond will confirm next decisive moves which should be firstly watched in the beginning of next week. 

Conclusions 

(After Putting All Studies Together)

As tax free Union-Budget on 1st Feb 2021 amid Covid-19 like huge pandemic surprised all around and Indian Stock markets also therefore strong rally was seen in previous week which closed at life time highest last Friday.

1- Long Term Trend is up.

2- Intermediate Term Trend is up.

3- Short Term Trend has turned up. 

Wave-v of Wave-3 continuation with new life time highest top formation at 15014.65 on 05-02-2021 and no indication of its completion yet on EOD and intraday charts,let it happen then size of correction will be considered according to its corrective patterns formations.

As Short Term indicator Stochastic is Overbought and some selling was also seen between 14865-15014 last Friday therefore firstly follow up moves within and near this range should be watched in the coming week for Short Term correction below 14865 after fresh selling or rally continuation above 15014 after fresh consolidation. 

Lot of up moves are left according to given Waves structure because now Wave-v of Wave-3 continuation but Short,Intermediate and Long Term correction is its nature and if fresh selling develops then only Short Term correction will be seen and after its completion fresh rally will be seen above 15000 which will get confirmation through sustaining beyond 14865-15014 in next week. 

 Rally continuation towards 15000

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(05-02-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (04-Feb-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel

2- Up moves with downward corrections

3- More than 2 hours consolidation between 14811-14864

4- Consolidation between 14865-14913

5- Whole day actual trading between 14715-14913

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told yesterday in "14827-14868 will confirm next decisive moves":-

1- firstly fresh consolidation is required for decisive up moves above today highest.

2- Expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next decisive moves within and near about 14827-14868

As was told yesterday 100% same happened today through:-

 

Firstly fresh consolidation requirement was told and Nifty consolidated whole day today as well as more than 2 hours consolidated between 14811-14864 today which was  within and near about 14827-14868.

Although firstly slipping 75 points after flat opening but firstly lower levels consolidation through Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel therefore after that up moves were seen which were also with consolidation through downward corrections. 

As more than 2 consolidation between 14811-14864 in Mid-Session and after that last hours follow up consolidation also therefore whole day today trading will be understood with consolidation hence on going rally continuation is expected towards 15000.

 14827-14868 will confirm 

next decisive moves

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(04-02-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (03-Feb-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- 180 points sharp down in first 6 minutes after gap up strong opening

2- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel

3- Selling between 14827-14868

4- Whole day actual trading between 14575-14868

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although 180 points sharp down in first 6 minutes after gap up strong opening but after that whole day up moves were seen. 

As firstly Up moves were in Bearish Rising Channel and after that higher levels selling was also seen between 14827-14868 therefore firstly fresh consolidation is required for decisive up moves above today highest.

Expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next decisive moves within and near about 14827-14868 and sustaining it beyond will confirm it which should be watched tomorrow for confirmations.

 Sustaining beyond 14505-14720 will form next trend

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(03-02-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (02-Feb-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Volatility in first hour

2- Slow up moves with downward corrections in last 5 hours

3- Whole day actual trading between 14470-14731

Conclusions from intraday chart analysis 

Although rally started on 1st February but its preparation though consolidation was started 3 sessions before therefore on the back of intraday consolidation I posted following topics:-

1- "Strong Pull back Rally in the coming 1/2 sessions" for 28-01-2021.  

2- "Strong Pull Back Rally tomorrow" for 29-01-2021.

3- Told for Budget day(01-02-2021) Outlook on 30-01-2021 that "consolidation patterns formations between 13730-13816 in last 2 sessions"

As all the Global markets were crashing therefore Pull back Rally was not seen in previous week and Indian markets blasted in this week because its base was formed in previous week through 3 sessions lower levels consolidation.

Firstly huge gap up opening and after that volatility in 1st hour today but after that 5 hours slow up moves were seen which is an indication of some profit booking also. As these up moves were with downward corrections which is an indication of some consolidation also but complete consolidation is firstly required for sustaining above today highest.

Mixed Patterns formation will be understood between 14505-14720 in last 5 hours therefore Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next decisive moves within and near about this range. As sustaining it beyond will form next trend therefore should be firstly watched for its confirmations.

Pull Back rally continuation towards next resistances 

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis &

Market Outlook(02-02-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (01-Feb-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Whole day up moves with downward corrections

2- Sharp up moves started after the end of Budget speech

3- Whole day actual trading between 13662-14336

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although Nifty closed at the lowest of the day last Friday but we were not Bearish and told following lines on 30-01-2021 in "Levels will confirm next Trend after Union-Budget under the shadow of crashing Global markets":-

1- Although Nifty closed below last 25 sessions lowest after loosing 270 points in last hour last Friday but 

2- consolidation patterns formations between 13730-13816 in last 2 sessions therefore firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched in the coming week for next Trend confirmation after Union-Budget Next Monday

Nifty traded within and near about 13730-13816 till the end of Budget speech and after that zoomed up as well as closed at the top of the day with 4.74% gains at 14281.20.

As whole day up moves were with downward corrections and selling patterns were not seen therefore today started Pull Back rally continuation is expected towards following next resistances;-

1- 14455-14619

2- 14701-14753

 Levels will confirm next Trend after Union-Budget under the shadow of crashing Global markets

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Feb 01 to Feb 05,2021)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Waves structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (29-Jan-2021):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Corrective Wave-C completion and Impulsive Wave-1 beginning from 7511.10 on 24-03-2020  

2- Wave-1(9889.05 on 30-04-2020)

3- Wave-2(8806.75 on 18-05-2020)

4- Wave-3(12025.50 on 15-10-2020)

5- Wave-4(11535.50 on 30-10-2020)

6- Impulsive Wave-5 completion with recent top formation at 14753.55 on 21-01-2021 and correction beginning

7- Correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 13596.75 on 29-01-2021

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Waves structure)

Waves structure which started from 7511.10 on 24-03-2020 completed at 14753.55 on 21-01-2021 and its correction started that is in continuation with recent bottom formation at 13596.75 on 29-01-2021.

  

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Averages & Stochastic)

Nifty-EOD Chart (29-Jan-2021):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Averages

A- 5-Day SMA is today at  14006

B- 13-Day SMA is today at 14325 

C- 55-Day SMA is today at 13654

D- 200-Day SMA is today at11558 

2- Stochastic %K(5) is at 6.11 & %D(3) is at 8.14   

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Averages & Stochastic)

Correction continuation with slipping below 55-Day SMA(13654) which is Intermediate Term Trend turning down confirmation.  

As Short term Trend indicator has turned extremely over sold therefore signals of a Pull Back rally which will be seen also if Global markets will not be in crashing mode as were in previous week due to new variant of Coronavirus.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Fibonacci retracement levels)

Nifty-EOD Chart (29-Jan-2021):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

Fibonacci retracement levels of Whole Wave Structure(7511.10-14753.55)

1- 13.0%- 13811(Corrected)

2- 23.6%- 13044

3- 27.0%- 12797

4- 38.2%- 11986(Crucial)

5- 50.0%- 11132(Crucial)

6- 61.8%- 10278(Crucial)

7- 70.7%-  9633

8- 76.4%-  9220

9- 78.6%-  9061 

10-88.6%-  8337 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Fibonacci retracement levels)

As more than 13% correction has been happened therefore Fibonacci retracement levels of Whole Wave Structure(7511.10-14753.55) has been updated because "ABC" correction according to its levels may be seen in the coming weeks/months/years.

 

Conclusions

(After Putting All Studies Together)

1- Long Term Trend is up.

2- Intermediate Term Trend is down.

3- Short Term Trend has turned down. 

Immediate maximum target of Nifty was told at 14754.25 on 16-01-2021 and Nifty crashed 1156 points from 14753.55 which was 0.70 points below the given level and it means that given Waves structure is still valid because last Friday closing was below 55-Day SMA(13654) after more than 13% retracement. 

As eruption of new variant of Coronavirus therefore all the Global markets are crashing and most markets closed in deep Red last Friday. Although Union-Budget will be tabled next Monday and Indian markets will react according to its announcements as well as next session will be highly volatile therefore firstly sustaining beyond following crucial levels should be firstly watched in next week to understand final reaction of Indian markets on Union-Budget and new variant of Coronavirus:-

Next supports are as follows:-

1- 13500-13546

2- 13193-13286

3- 23.6% retracement levels- 13044

Next resistances are as follows:-

1- 13841-13898

2- 14120-14194

3- 14455-14619

4- 14701-14753

Although Nifty closed below last 25 sessions lowest after loosing 270 points in last hour last Friday but consolidation patterns formations between 13730-13816 in last 2 sessions therefore firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched in the coming week for next Trend confirmation after Union-Budget Next Monday as well as under the shadow of crashing Global markets due to new variant of Coronavirus.

Firstly Watch 13714-13770 amid crashing Global markets and Budget expectation

Mid-session Outlook(29-01-2021)

Global markets are as follows today morning;-

Dow Jones Futures- 360 Points down

Hang Seng- 0.81% down

Taiwan- 1.51% down

Kospi- 3.37% down

Nikkei- 1.83% down

Although such crashing like situation in all Global markets to day morning but Indian markets traded Out Performing and most time traded in Green since opening today. 

As lower levels supports between 13714-13770 yesterday therefore firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched today amid crashing Global markets and Budget expectation next Monday.

Strong Pull Back Rally tomorrow

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(29-01-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (28-Jan-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 13841-13898

2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel

3- Sharp up

4- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel

5- Whole day actual trading between 13714-13898

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As most Asian markets were in crashing mode today morning after more than 2% yesterday fall of all US markets Indices therefore huge gap down opening of Indian markets today.

Although firstly more than 2 hours selling but after that lower levels consolidation through down moves in Bullish Falling Channels therefore Sharp up moves were seen in last 4 hours which could not move above 13841 because good selling was above it today. 

As today down moves were due to crashing Global markets and Dow Jones is now trading more than 600 points up as well as such higher Dow Jones closing today will lead rally in Asian markets tomorrow therefore resultant up moves will be seen in Indian markets also. 

As lower levels consolidation today and Very Short Term indicators have turned Over sold as well as possibility of Bullish Global markets tomorrow therefore resultant strong Pull Back Rally will be seen in Indian markets also.

13772-13912 will confirm Indian markets reaction on Budget and crashing Global markets 

Mid-session Outlook(28-01-2021)

As most Asian markets were in crashing mode after more than 2% fall of all US markets Indices therefore huge gap down opening of Indian markets and Nifty is trading between 13795-13898 since today morning which is within previous Outlook mentioned supports(13772-13912).

Indian markets will have to react on Budget expectations and crashing Global markets and  Finally sustaining beyond 13772-13912 will confirm next trend as the result of these 2 developments therefore firstly sustaining beyond 13772-13912 should be watched in the coming sessions for Indian markets final reaction and resultant next trend. 

Strong Pull back Rally in the coming 1/2 sessions

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(28-01-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (27-Jan-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 14120-14194

2- Down moves with upward corrections

3- Consolidation between 13930-14010

4- Whole day actual trading between 13930-14237

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

In both previous Outlooks possibility of huge/sharp fall was told after sustaining below 14265 and it was seen today because following next supports were much below 14265:- 

1- 13875-13912

2- 13815-13845

3- 13772-13811(Gap supports)

Slipping 75 points in first 10 seconds and after that selling through Down moves with upward corrections therefore correction continuation and closing below 14000 today.  

Although last more than 1 hour consolidation between 13930-14010 but higher levels good selling also therefore complete consolidation is firstly required for fresh rally above 14000.

As crashing like situation in all Global markets therefore more weakness can not be ruled out tomorrow but Very Short Term indicators have turned Oversold and consolidation was seen at lower levels today as well as above mentioned multiple supports are lying below today lowest therefore expected that strong Pull back Rally will be seen in the coming 1/2 sessions after fresh consolidation above 13815.

 Firstly watch sustaining beyond 14265

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis &

Market Outlook(27-01-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (25-Jan-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 14455-14480

2- Sharp fall

3- Selling between 14324-14432

4- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel

5- Whole day actual trading between 14218-14491

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following conclusive lines were told on 23-01-2021 in "Firstly watch crucial levels in Budget news led highly volatile next week":-

1- Nifty will firstly prepare for post-Budget big moves between and near about 14265-14528 in the beginning of next week

2- As strong resistances are above it therefore Nifty will have to consolidate completely for crossing and sustaining above those resistances

3- Remain completely careful because fresh selling within this range and sustaining below 14265 will mean huge fall because next supports are much below it. 

Nifty traded first 6 hours between 14265-14528 and slipped below it in last half hour after good selling above it last Monday therefore more down moves are expected tomorrow, follow up selling and once sustaining below 14265 will mean sharp fall possibility also therefore remain cautious.

As Union Budget led volatility can not be ruled out and last hour Down moves were in Bullish Falling Channel last Monday therefore some up moves possibility can not be ruled but until complete consolidation will not develop till then Nifty will not be able to move and sustain above 14265. 

Global markets are also highly volatile due to new variant of coronavirus therefore firstly sustaining beyond 14265 should be watched tomorrow for slow up moves above it and sharp fall below it.

समस्त हिन्दुस्थानियों को 

72 वें गणतंत्र दिवस की हार्दिक शुभकामनायें 

Wishing you all Hindusthanis 

Happy Republic Day 2021

Live proofs of our accuracy

Just click on following "Topic link" and go through above topic in this Blog which was posted on 16-01-2021:-

Firstly watch immediate maximum target of Nifty at 14754.25 amid Pre-Post Budget news led volatility

Just click on following "Topic link" and go through above topic in this Blog which was posted on 05-12-2020:-

Rally continuation towards its immediate maximum target at 13777.75

 Firstly watch crucial levels in Budget news led highly volatile next week

Technical Analysis,Research & 

Weekly Outlook(Jan 25 to Jan 29,2021)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis 

(Averages,MACD & Stochastic)

Nifty-EOD Chart (22-Jan-2021):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-5 continuation with recent top formation at 14753.55 on 21-01-2021

2-Averages

A- 5-Day SMA is today at 14481

B- 13-Day SMA is today at 14437

C- 21-Day SMA is today at 14264

D- 55-Day SMA is today at 13541

3- Stochastic %K(5) is at 64.14 & %D(3) is at 67.11 

4- MACD line intersected Average line downward

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Averages,MACD & Stochastic)

Impulsive Wave-5 continuation with recent top formation at 14753.55 on 21-01-2021. Although no confirmation of its completion yet but correction beginning signals developed in last 2 sessions through 2 long Black candles formation and previous week closing below 13-Day SMA(14437) at 14357.75.

In Stochastic %K(5) has intersected downward %D(3) and started to move down from Over bought zone after making lower top formation therefore indicating more down moves possibilities in the coming sessions.

In MACD also MACD line intersected Average line downward therefore showing Short Term Trend turning down indications.

Nifty-Last 5 Sessions 

intraday charts analysis

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jan 18 to Jan 22,2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in last 5 Sessions intraday charts

1 Selling(Resistances) in last 5 sessions are between:-

A- 14477-14528 

B- 14555-14619

C- 14701-14753 

2- Consolidation(Supports) in last 5 sessions are sessions:-

A- 14265-14340 

3- Mixed Patterns formation between 14358-14483

4- 5 Sessions actual trading between 14223-14753 

Conclusions from 5 

Sessions intra day chart analysis 

Last 5 Sessions actual trading between 14223-14753 with higher levels multiple resistances and only one support range at lower levels. 

As more than last 2 hours trading with Mixed Patterns formation between 14358-14483 last Friday was just above next supports(14265-14340) and just below next resistances(14477-14528) therefore expected that Nifty will firstly trade between 14265-14528 in the beginning of next week and finally sustaining beyond this range will confirm the life of last Thursday started correction.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart 

Analysis(22-Jan-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (22-Jan-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 14555-14619(immediate Resistances)

2- Sharp fall

2- Selling between 14477-14528(immediate Resistances)

3- Mixed Patterns formation between 14358-14483

4- Whole day actual trading between 14358-14619

Conclusions from 

intra day chart analysis 

Although positive zone trading was seen in first hour after flat opening but selling developed therefore sharp fall was seen. 

Follow up selling was seen in Mid-session but last more than 2 hours trading was with Mixed Patterns formation between 14358-14483 because both consolidation and selling patterns were seen within this range. 

Expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next moves between 14358-14483 in the beginning of next week and firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched for moves towards next support below 14358 and next resistances above 14483.

Conclusions 

(After Putting All Studies Together)

1- Long Term Trend is up

2- Intermediate Term Trend is up

3- Short Term Trend has turned down after closing below 13-Day SMA(14437) at 14357.75.

As Waves structure was updated in previous weekly Outlook and no material change in its set up therefore only Averages and Indicators have been posted in this week Outlook.

Although new life time highest in previous week but Nifty could not move above Immediate maximum target of Nifty which was at 14754.25 and slipped also 395 points from 14753.55 in last 2 sessions therefore given waves structure is still valid. 

As Union Budget will be announced on 01-02-2021 and Indian markets will have to prepare for post Budget big moves therefore next 4 sessions of the coming week will be crucial because Nifty will technically prepare for post-Budget big moves in this period.

As coming week will be Budget news led highly volatile and firstly sustaining beyond crucial levels(14265-14528) should be watched in next week because Nifty will firstly prepare for post-Budget big moves between and near about 14265-14528 in the beginning of next week. As strong resistances are above it therefore Nifty will have to consolidate completely for crossing and sustaining above those resistances. Remain completely careful because fresh selling within this range and sustaining below 14265 will mean huge fall because next supports are much below it.  

 Watch levels for first signal of next decisive moves beginning amid Volatility

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis &

Market Outlook(22-01-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (21-Jan-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- More than 5 hours selling between 14701-14753(immediate Resistances)

2- Sharp fall in last hour

3- Whole day actual trading between 14518-14753

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Live proofs of levels accuracy

Following line was told on 16-01-2021 in "Firstly watch immediate maximum target of Nifty at 14754.25 amid Pre-Post Budget news led volatility ":-

immediate maximum target of Nifty is at 14754.25

Immediate maximum target of Nifty was given at 14754.25 on 16-01-2021 and Nifty crashed 235 points from 14753.55 on 21-01-2021.

Although strong gap up opening today but sentiment turned heated due to SENSEX surpassing 50,000 mark therefore selling developed which remained continued more than 5 hours hence sharp fall was seen in last hour.

As more than 5 hours selling between 14701-14753 therefore it will be immediate resistance of Nifty and next supports are between 14265-14340 hence Nifty will prepare for post-budget moves between 14265-14753 in the coming sessions and remain volatile also within this 488 points range.  

Expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next decisive moves between 14518-14665 and sustaining beyond this range should be watched for first signal of its beginning.

 As busy in a marriage therefore Outlook of today(21-01-2021) is not being updated.

 Firstly watch 1st resistance for next decisive moves beginning confirmations

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(20-01-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (19-Jan-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Up moves with downward corrections

2- Whole day actual trading between 14351-14546

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told and 3 resistances were updated on 16-01-2021 in "Firstly watch immediate maximum target of Nifty at 14754.25 amid Pre-Post Budget news led volatility":-

1- For correction life firstly sustaining beyond 13-Day SMA(14276) should be watched in the coming week because it is between immediate next supports(14230-14301).

2- 3 Resistances:-

1- 14482-14549  

2- 14580-14617 

3- 14621-14648 

Immediate next supports were told between 14230-14301 and Nifty got supports just below it at 14,222.80 on 18-01-2021 as well as after that 239.85 points rally was seen today which remained continued up to 1st resistances at 14546.05. 

Although whole day today up moves were with downward corrections and closing was near the higher levels of the day as well as selling patterns were not seen but Very Short Term indicators have turned Over Bought after strong rally of today and above mentioned resistances are lying within and above today closing therefore firstly complete consolidation is required for rally continuation above today highest.

Expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next decisive moves within and neat about above mentioned 1st resistance(14482-14549) and finally sustaining it beyond will confirm following next moves:-

1- Sustaining below 14482 will mean sharp fall.

2- Sustaining above 14549 will mean slow up moves with follow up consolidation because above it multiple resistances are lying up to 14648. 

Firstly sustaining beyond above mentioned 1st resistance(14482-14549) should be watched  tomorrow for next decisive moves beginning confirmations.

Firstly watch supports for the life of on going correction

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(19-01-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (18-Jan-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Down moves with upward corrections

2- Selling between 14265-14343(immediate Resistances)

3- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel

4- Down moves with upward corrections

5- Whole day actual trading between 14223-14459

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told at on 16-01-2021 in "Firstly watch immediate maximum target of Nifty at 14754.25 amid Pre-Post Budget news led volatility ":-

1- Nifty will slip towards the lowest of last 5 sessions(14358) and once sustaining below it will mean sharp fall

2- correction continuation is expected in the beginning of next week

3- At present Short Term correction is on and its continuation is expected below last 5 sessions lowest(14358)in the coming week.

4- For correction life firstly sustaining beyond 13-Day SMA(14276) should be watched in the coming week because it is between immediate next supports(14230-14301).

As was told 100% same happened today and:- 

1- Nifty slipped below 14358 today

2- Today lowest was just below immediate next supports(14230-14301) at 14,222.80 and closed near 13-Day SMA(14276) at 14281.30.

Nifty slipped 40 points in first 2 minutes and more than 100 points within first 20 minutes as well as after that whole day selling remain continued thorugh Down moves with upward corrections and up moves in Bearish Rising Channel therefore Nifty closed at the lower levels of the day.

As very Short Term Indicators have turned oversold and Nifty closed within mentioned supports(14230-14301) therefore firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched in the coming sessions for the life of on going correction.  

Firstly watch immediate maximum target of Nifty at 14754.25 amid Pre-Post Budget news led volatility 

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Jan 18 to Jan 22,2021)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Waves structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (15-Jan-2021):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Corrective Wave-C completion and Impulsive Wave-1 beginning from 7511.10 on 24-03-2020  

2- Wave-1(9889.05 on 30-04-2020)

3- Wave-2(8806.75 on 18-05-2020)

4- Wave-3(12025.50 on 15-10-2020)

5- Wave-4(11535.50 on 30-10-2020)

6- Impulsive Wave-5 continuation with recent top formation at 14653.40 on 13-01-2021

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Waves structure)

Impulsive Wave-5 continuation with recent top formation at 14653.40 on 13-01-2021 and no indication of its completion yet because no selling patterns formations on EOD charts except long black candle formation last Friday.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Averages & Stochastic)

Nifty-EOD Chart (15-Jan-2021):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-5 continuation with recent top formation at 14653.40 on 13-01-2021

2- Last 5 Sessions sideways trading between 14358-14653

3-Averages

A- 5-Day SMA is today at 14528

B- 13-Day SMA is today at 14276

C- 21-Day SMA is today at 14049

D- 55-Day SMA is today at 13292

4- Stochastic %K(5) is at 65.20 & %D(3) is at 81.78

5- Stochastic showing negative divergence in over bought zone through moving down when Nifty is moving up.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Averages & Stochastic)

Impulsive Wave-5 continuation and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts but last Friday closing was below 5-Day SMA(14528) at 14433.70 which is first indication of Short term correction beginning.

Last 5 Sessions sideways trading between 14358-14653 and last session closing was near its lower levels therefore if Nifty sustains below last 5 sessions lowest(14358) then Short term correction will be seen after 5 sessions trading range breaking down confirmations.

Short term indicator Stochastic has confirmed Short term correction beginning through:-

1- Showing negative divergence in over bought zone.

2- Moving down from over bought zone. 

3- %K(5) intersecting downward %D(3).

Nifty-Last 5 Sessions

intraday charts analysis

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jan 11 to Jan 15,2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in last 5 Sessions intraday charts

1- Selling(Resistances) in last 5 sessions are between:-

A- 14482-14549  

B- 14580-14617 

C- 14621-14648

2- Consolidation(Supports) in last 5 sessions are between:-

A- 14395-14430

B- 14461-14480

3- Sideways trading in last 5 sessions are between:- 

A- 14419-14457

4- 5 Sessions actual trading between 14358-14653 

Conclusions from 5 Sessions

intra day chart analysis 

As good selling at higher levels in last 5 sessions therefore Nifty fallen into last 5 sessions supports and traded sideways within these supports between 14419-14457 last Friday.

Nifty closed near the lower levels of last 5 sessions and higher levels good selling also therefore expected that Nifty will slip towards the lowest of last 5 sessions(14358) and once sustaining below it will mean sharp fall after valid break down of last 5 sessions trading range.

Next supports below 14358 are as follows:-

1- 14258-14301

2- 14230-14252

Nifty-Intra Day Chart

Analysis(15-Jan-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (15-Jan-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Sharp fall after flat opening

2- Selling between 14482-14549(immediate Resistances)

3- Sharp fall 

4- Sideways trading in last hour between 14419-14457

5- Whole day actual trading between 14358-14617

Conclusions from

intra day chart analysis 

Firstly sharp fall after flat opening and after that more than 4 hours selling between 14482-14549 therefore this range will be immediate Resistance on Nifty.

Although again sharp fall after more than 4 hours selling but after that sideways trading in last hour between 14419-14457 therefore firstly sustaining beyond this range should be watched in next week for correction continuation confirmation below 14419 and first signal of correction completion above 14457. 

As good selling above 14482 in last 3 sessions of previous week therefore correction continuation is expected in the beginning of next week and complete consolidation is firstly required for correction completion and sustaining above 14457.

Conclusions

(After Putting All Studies Together)

1- Long Term Trend is up

2- Intermediate Term Trend is up

3- Short Term Trend has turned down after last Friday closing below 5-Day SMA(14528) at 14433.70

Impulsive Wave-5 of Nifty continuation and as per Elliott Wave theory maximum target of on going Wave-5 is at 14754.25. Its calculation is as follows:-                                                                                   

As per Elliott Wave theory "Wave-3 should not be shorter than both Wave-1 and Wave-5. Now impulsive Wave-5 is on and it should not gain more points than Wave-3  gained.

Impulsive Wave-1 gained=2377.95 points(9889.05-7511.10)

Impulsive Wave-3 gained=3218.75 points(12025.50-8806.75)

Impulsive Wave-5 has gained 3117.90 points till 13-01-2021(14653.40-11535.50)

As according to Elliott Wave theory Wave-5 can not gain more points than Wave-3 gained therefore on going impulsive Wave-5 will gain lesser points than 3218.75.

Impulsive Wave-5 started from 11535.50 on 30-10-2020 and it has to gain less than 3218.75 points therefore maximum target of on going impulsive Wave-5 is 14754.25(11535.50+3218.75)

It must be kept in mind that nothing is absolute in financial markets and if Nifty moves above 14754.25 then as per Elliott Wave theory Waves structure has to be recalculated and if correction remain continued without moving above 14754.25 then "ABC" correction of rally between 7511.10-14754.25 will be considered.

At present Short Term correction is on and its continuation is expected below last 5 sessions lowest(14358)in the coming week. For correction life firstly sustaining beyond 13-Day SMA(14276) should be watched in the coming week because it is between immediate next supports(14230-14301).

As per given Waves structure immediate maximum target of Nifty is at 14754.25 and correction started from just below it in previous week from 14653.40 therefore firstly 14754.25 should be watched in the coming 3 weeks of Pre-Post Budget news led volatility for rally continuation or deeper "ABC" correction. 

 Sustaining below 14580 will be first strong signal of Short Term Correction 

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(15-01-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (14-Jan-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel

2- Slow up moves

3- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel

4- Selling between 14580-14617

5- Whole day actual trading between 14472-14617

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As firstly Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel therefore after that up moves were seen but those up moves were slow hence some selling also can not be ruled out.

Although again some consolidation in Mid-session but last hours selling patterns formations between 14580-14617 which were below yesterday selling levels therefore higher levels follow up selling will be understood.

As selling above 14580 in last 2 sessions therefore if fresh selling develops tomorrow then Short Term Correction will be seen and its first strong signal will be sustaining below 14580.

watch levels for next Short Term trend confirmations

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(14-01-2021)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (13-Jan-2021):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Down moves with upward corrections

2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel

3- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel

4- Whole day actual trading between 14436-14653

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although gap up opening but selling developed and down moves were seen with upward corrections therefore Nifty slipped more than 200 points from higher levels. 

As some consolidation at lower levels through Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel hence up moves in last hours which were in Bearish Rising Channel therefore follow up selling will be understood at higher levels today. 

Both lower levels some supports and higher levels good selling between 14436-14653 therefore firstly sustaining beyond this range should be watched tomorrow for next Short Term trend confirmations.