Firstly watch immediate maximum target of Nifty at 14754.25 amid Pre-Post Budget news led volatility
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Jan 18 to Jan 22,2021)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (15-Jan-2021):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-C completion and Impulsive Wave-1 beginning from 7511.10 on 24-03-2020
2- Wave-1(9889.05 on 30-04-2020)
3- Wave-2(8806.75 on 18-05-2020)
4- Wave-3(12025.50 on 15-10-2020)
5- Wave-4(11535.50 on 30-10-2020)
6- Impulsive Wave-5 continuation with recent top formation at 14653.40 on 13-01-2021
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Waves structure)
Impulsive Wave-5 continuation with recent top formation at 14653.40 on 13-01-2021 and no indication of its completion yet because no selling patterns formations on EOD charts except long black candle formation last Friday.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages & Stochastic)
Nifty-EOD Chart (15-Jan-2021):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Impulsive Wave-5 continuation with recent top formation at 14653.40 on 13-01-2021
2- Last 5 Sessions sideways trading between 14358-14653
3-Averages
A- 5-Day SMA is today at 14528
B- 13-Day SMA is today at 14276
C- 21-Day SMA is today at 14049
D- 55-Day SMA is today at 13292
4- Stochastic %K(5) is at 65.20 & %D(3) is at 81.78
5- Stochastic showing negative divergence in over bought zone through moving down when Nifty is moving up.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Averages & Stochastic)
Impulsive Wave-5 continuation and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts but last Friday closing was below 5-Day SMA(14528) at 14433.70 which is first indication of Short term correction beginning.
Last 5 Sessions sideways trading between 14358-14653 and last session closing was near its lower levels therefore if Nifty sustains below last 5 sessions lowest(14358) then Short term correction will be seen after 5 sessions trading range breaking down confirmations.
Short term indicator Stochastic has confirmed Short term correction beginning through:-
1- Showing negative divergence in over bought zone.
2- Moving down from over bought zone.
3- %K(5) intersecting downward %D(3).
Nifty-Last 5 Sessions
intraday charts analysis
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jan 11 to Jan 15,2021):-
Technical Patterns formation in last 5 Sessions intraday charts
1- Selling(Resistances) in last 5 sessions are between:-
A- 14482-14549
B- 14580-14617
C- 14621-14648
2- Consolidation(Supports) in last 5 sessions are between:-
A- 14395-14430
B- 14461-14480
3- Sideways trading in last 5 sessions are between:-
A- 14419-14457
4- 5 Sessions actual trading between 14358-14653
Conclusions from 5 Sessions
intra day chart analysis
As good selling at higher levels in last 5 sessions therefore Nifty fallen into last 5 sessions supports and traded sideways within these supports between 14419-14457 last Friday.
Nifty closed near the lower levels of last 5 sessions and higher levels good selling also therefore expected that Nifty will slip towards the lowest of last 5 sessions(14358) and once sustaining below it will mean sharp fall after valid break down of last 5 sessions trading range.
Next supports below 14358 are as follows:-
1- 14258-14301
2- 14230-14252
Nifty-Intra Day Chart
Analysis(15-Jan-2021)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (15-Jan-2021):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- Sharp fall after flat opening
2- Selling between 14482-14549(immediate Resistances)
3- Sharp fall
4- Sideways trading in last hour between 14419-14457
5- Whole day actual trading between 14358-14617
Conclusions from
intra day chart analysis
Firstly sharp fall after flat opening and after that more than 4 hours selling between 14482-14549 therefore this range will be immediate Resistance on Nifty.
Although again sharp fall after more than 4 hours selling but after that sideways trading in last hour between 14419-14457 therefore firstly sustaining beyond this range should be watched in next week for correction continuation confirmation below 14419 and first signal of correction completion above 14457.
As good selling above 14482 in last 3 sessions of previous week therefore correction continuation is expected in the beginning of next week and complete consolidation is firstly required for correction completion and sustaining above 14457.
Conclusions
(After Putting All Studies Together)
1- Long Term Trend is up
2- Intermediate Term Trend is up
3- Short Term Trend has turned down after last Friday closing below 5-Day SMA(14528) at 14433.70
Impulsive Wave-5 of Nifty continuation and as per Elliott Wave theory maximum target of on going Wave-5 is at 14754.25. Its calculation is as follows:-
As per Elliott Wave theory "Wave-3 should not be shorter than both Wave-1 and Wave-5. Now impulsive Wave-5 is on and it should not gain more points than Wave-3 gained.
Impulsive Wave-1 gained=2377.95 points(9889.05-7511.10)
Impulsive Wave-3 gained=3218.75 points(12025.50-8806.75)
Impulsive Wave-5 has gained 3117.90 points till 13-01-2021(14653.40-11535.50)
As according to Elliott Wave theory Wave-5 can not gain more points than Wave-3 gained therefore on going impulsive Wave-5 will gain lesser points than 3218.75.
Impulsive Wave-5 started from 11535.50 on 30-10-2020 and it has to gain less than 3218.75 points therefore maximum target of on going impulsive Wave-5 is 14754.25(11535.50+3218.75)
It must be kept in mind that nothing is absolute in financial markets and if Nifty moves above 14754.25 then as per Elliott Wave theory Waves structure has to be recalculated and if correction remain continued without moving above 14754.25 then "ABC" correction of rally between 7511.10-14754.25 will be considered.
At present Short Term correction is on and its continuation is expected below last 5 sessions lowest(14358)in the coming week. For correction life firstly sustaining beyond 13-Day SMA(14276) should be watched in the coming week because it is between immediate next supports(14230-14301).
As per given Waves structure immediate maximum target of Nifty is at 14754.25 and correction started from just below it in previous week from 14653.40 therefore firstly 14754.25 should be watched in the coming 3 weeks of Pre-Post Budget news led volatility for rally continuation or deeper "ABC" correction.