Now recovering and expected that Outlooks updating will be restarted from next week
ॐ ह्रीं श्रीं लक्ष्मीभयो नमः॥
Firstly Up moves Expectations amid On Going Correction
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Nov 16 to Nov 20,2015)
Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Nov-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and Wave-A of 'ABC' correction beginning after life time high formation)
2- Wave-A(7940.30 on 12-06-2015)
3- Wave-B(8654.75 on 23-07-2015)
4- Wave-C(7539.50 on 08-09-2015)
5- Pull Back Rally completion(8336.30 on 26-10-2015)
6- Pull Back Rally correction is on with recent bottom formation at 7730.90 on 13-11-2015
Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Nov-2015):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 7539.50 on 08-09-2015(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(8055.00 on 18-09-2015)
3- Wave-2(7691.20 on 29-09-2015)
4- Wave-3(8244.50 on 12-10-2015)
5- Wave-4(8088.60 on 13-10-2015)
6- Wave-5(8336.30 on 26-10-2015 and correction beginning)
7- Correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 7730.90 on 13-11-2015
Intra Day Chart Analysis(13-11-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (13-Nov-2015):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Consolidation between 7731-7760
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Good intraday corrections in last hours
4- Whole day actual trading between 7731-7775
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As all the Global markets were in deep Red therefore huge gap down opening but whole day 44 points sideways trading with good intraday consolidation patterns formations therefore emergence of some decisive up moves expectations in the Next week. Dow Jones closed 202 points down last Friday and if in its reaction Asian markers also remains weak then initial down moves may be seen in Indian markets also but until Nifty will not sustain below day's lowest(7731) after fresh selling till then decisive down moves will not be seen and once sustaining above day's highest(7775) after follow up consolidation will mean strong Pull Back Rally next week.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
18 Months 4000 points strong rally(from 28-08-2013 to 04-03-2015 and from 5118.85 to 9119.20) with many times new life time high formation and after that 'ABC' correction begun which gave its completion signals at 7539.50 on 08-09-2015. Then Pull Back rally started from 7539.50 on 08-09-2015 which completed its 5th Wave at 8336.30 on 26-10-2015 and after that its correction begun which is in continuation with recent bottom formation at 7730.90 on 13-11-2015.
Pull Back Rally completed at 8336.30 on 26-10-2015 and correction begun. Fibonacci Retracement levels of on going correction are as follows:-
1- 13.0%- 8232(corrected)
2- 23.6%- 8148(corrected)
3- 27.0%- 8121(corrected)
4- 38.2%- 8031(Crucial level corrected)
5- 50.0%- 7937(Crucial level corrected)
6- 61.8%- 7843(Crucial level corrected)
7- 70.7%- 7772(corrected)
8- 76.4%- 7727
9- 78.6%- 7710
10-88.6%- 7630
Recent bottom formation of on going correction is at 7730.90 which means that 76.4% retracement has almost been completed. As such deeper correction of previous Pull Back Rally therefore possibility of slipping below its lowest(7539.50) can not be ruled out now. Once slipping below it will mean recalculation of waves structure of on going that correction which from 9119.20 on 04-03-2015,let Nifty slip below 7539.50 then will be updated accordingly.
Next supports of Nifty are as follows:-
1- Supports between 7731-7760
2- Supports between 7695-7726
3- Supports between 7545-7582
As intraday good consolidation on 13-11-2015 therefore signals of some up moves beginning in next week and firstly sustaining above first supports(7731-7760) should be watched in the beginning of next week. Valid break out of 7760 will mean fresh Pull Back rally and valid breaking down of 7731 will mean correction continuation towards the bottom(7539.50) of previous Pull Back Rally. Once slipping below 7539.50 will mean fresh down moves gates opening,let it happen then levels below it will be updated.
Following points are suggesting fresh rally after on going correction completion above 7539.50:-
1- Wave'C' corrected up to 7539.50 which was very little more than Wave'A',it means that Wave'C' corrected 100% of Wave'A',it is an indication of correction completion also.
2- Previous week down moves were on the back Bihar results and weaker global markets.
3- Intraday patterns on last few sessions showed consolidation patterns formations and selling patterns were not seen.
Some up moves are expected and correction completion will be considered after sustaining above following levels:-
1- Next resistances between 8108-8152
2- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8163)
Final conclusion is that correction is on and no confirmation of its completion yet but indications of its completion which requires confirmations through sustaining above next resistances and crucial levels and deeper correction will be considered after slipping below 7539.50 but some up moves are firstly expected in next week after consolidation last Friday and some more previous sessions.
Pre-open Outlook(13-11-2015)
As intraday consolidation patterns formations on 10-11-2015 therefore a Bounce back was expected on "Diwali Muhurt session" which was seen also on but some up moves will not be seen today because all the Asian markets are in Red and some are 1% to 2% down after huge fall in all the US and European markets yesterday.
Such high depressing sentiments reaction will be gap down opening of Indian markets and on going correction continuation today , let fresh consolidation develop and Nifty to sustain above higher level resistances and crucial levels(have been updated in previous Outlooks) then its completion will be considered.
Up Moves Expectations in the coming Couple of Sessions
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- All the Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
2- Whole day actual trading between 7773-7885
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although whole day down moves with closing near the lower levels of the day yesterday but all the Down moves were in Bullish Falling Channels therefore a Bounce back is expected on "Diwali Muhurt session" between 05:45 PM and 06:45 PM today. As Oscillators are also oversold and above mentioned intraday consolidation patterns formations also therefore today started up moves continuation may be seen on 13-11-2015 also.
Fresh Down Moves triggering after BJP Big Defeat in Bihar
Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook
(10-11-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (09-Nov-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 4 Hours Mixed Patterns between 7843-7874
2- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
3- Whole day actual trading between 7828-7937
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As such big unexpected defeat of BJP in Bihar and development of many uncertainties regarding future policies of Modi Govt resultant fresh down moves triggered therefore whole day negative zone trading after huge gap down opening today. Although good up moves in last hours but in Bearish Rising Channel and after 4 Hours Mixed Patterns formations therefore follow up consolidation is must for decisive up moves above today highest(7937.75).
All trends are down and correction is on but as such consolidation patterns formations were not seen at lower levels today despite good recovery from lower levels therefore only some volatility with more down moves will be considered now and until Nifty will not sustain above following levels till then correction completion will not be considered and on going correction will remain continued:-
1- Next resistances between 8108-8152
2- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8177)
Reaction of Unexpected Big Defeat BJP in Bihar today
Pre-open Outlook(09-11-2015)
As such big unexpected defeat of BJP in Bihar and development of many uncertainties regarding future policies of Modi Govt as well as all around most depressed sentiment therefore gap down opening will be seen in Indian markets today. Although Indian markets are technically well poised for fresh up moves but such big jolt was never expected and firstly Indian markets reaction on this most depressing news should be watched today then next moves will be finalised according to fresh technical positions formations.
Short Term Rally next Monday despite whatsoever Bihar Assembly Results
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Nov 09 to Nov 13,2015)
Nifty-EOD Chart (06-Nov-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and Wave-A of 'ABC' correction beginning after life time high formation)
2- Wave-A(7940.30 on 12-06-2015)
3- Wave-B(8654.75 on 23-07-2015)
4- Wave-C(7539.50 on 08-09-2015)
5- Pull Back Rally completion(8336.30 on 26-10-2015)
6- Pull Back Rally correction is on with recent bottom formation at 7926.15 on 06-11-2015
7- Long Term Trend is down after last 8 sessions closing below its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8177)
Nifty-EOD Chart (06-Nov-2015):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 7539.50 on 08-09-2015(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(8055.00 on 18-09-2015)
3- Wave-2(7691.20 on 29-09-2015)
4- Wave-3(8244.50 on 12-10-2015)
5- Wave-4(8088.60 on 13-10-2015)
6- Wave-5(8336.30 on 26-10-2015 and correction beginning)
7- correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 7926.15 on 06-11-2015
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Nov 05 & Nov 06,2015):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- All the Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels in last 2 sessions
2- 2 Sessions actual trading between 7927-8031
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
18 Months 4000 points strong rally(from 28-08-2013 to 04-03-2015 and from 5118.85 to 9119.20) with many times new life time high formation and after that 'ABC' correction begun which gave its completion signals at 7539.50 on 08-09-2015. Then Pull Back rally started from 7539.50 on 08-09-2015 which completed its 5th Wave at 8336.30 on 26-10-2015 and after that its correction begun which is in continuation with recent bottom formation at 7926.15 on 06-11-2015.
Fibonacci Retracement levels and next 7 supports of on going correction has already been updated in following previous weekly analysis topic:-
Correction Continuation towards next 7 Supports
Nifty has completed mentioned 50% retracement and closed within 2nd support range last Friday. Certainly correction of Pull back rally is very much on and no confirmation of its completion yet but following points are giving signals of Short Term Rally in the beginning of next week:-
1- Short Term indicators are oversold
2- Intraday charts of last 2 sessions are showing consolidation patterns formations
3- Selling patterns not seen in last 2 sessions despite negative closing.
4- Doji Candle formation last Friday which is also a signal of down moves stopping.
Correction started from 8336.30 on 26-10-2015 and its completion will be considered only after sustaining above following levels:-
1- Next resistances between 8108-8152
2- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8177)
As last 2 sessions intraday charts have shown consolidation patterns formations therefore firstly Short Term Rally is expected on 09-11-2015 despite whatsoever Bihar Assembly results on 08-11-2015 and 200 Day EMA(today at 8177) will decide Rally continuation or termination.
Fresh Rally from 9th Nov after consolidation pattern formations today
Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook
(06-11-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (05-Nov-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Whole day all the Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
2- Whole day actual trading between 7945-8031
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although whole day down moves and more than 1% negative closing also today but all the Down moves were in Bullish Falling Channels therefore it is a signal of some up moves tomorrow. Last 3 sessions trading between 7996-8152 with following supports and resistances:-
1- Next supports are between 7996-8016
2- Next resistances are between 8108-8152
Nifty moved down and closed below last 3 sessions range and mentioned supports range has also been broken down today which is a strong signal of decisive down moves. As today all the down moves were in Bullish Falling Channels which is a consolidation pattern also and intraday selling patterns were not seen today therefore firstly sustaining below 7996 should be watched because that will be fresh deep down moves confirmation.
Short Term indicators are oversold and above mentioned whole day consolidation pattern formations also today therefore once valid break out of 7996 will also mean first strong indication of that correction completion which started from 8336.30 on 26-10-2015.
As per our view Indian stock markets have been technically prepared today for fresh rally after on going correction completion and its trigger will NDA clear victory in Bihar Polls which we are expecting also. Let it happen on 8th Nov then fresh rally will be seen on 9th Nov 2015.
Decisive Big Moves beyond 7996-8152 after Bihar Election Results
Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook
(05-11-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (04-Nov-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- More than 5 hours Mixed Patterns between 8070-8094
2- Whole day actual trading between 8028-8116
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Following lines were told yesterday in "Firstly Watch 7996 amid Some More Down Moves":-
As good selling today therefore some more down moves towards yesterday lowest(7996) will be seen tomorrow
Although all the Asian markets were blasting today morning but we were not Bullish therefore we told following lines today at 07:45 AM in "Firstly Watch 8100 amid Blasting Asian Markets":-
1- strong opening will be seen in Indian markets
2- Clear selling patterns formations between Selling between 8081-8100 yesterday
3- firstly sustaining above 8100 should be watched for first signal of decisive up moves.
As was told 100% same happened today and Nifty could not sustain above 8100 as well as whole day down moves were seen after strong gap up opening and today negative zone closing was at the lowest of the day.
Although today closing near the lower levels of the day after slipping 88 points from higher levels but more than 5 hours trading with Mixed Patterns formations between 8070-8094 today therefore final view will be formed after consideration of following points:-
1- Next big moves will be seen on 6th or 9th Nov according to Bihar Assembly Elections Exit Poll results after 05:00 PM tomorrow.
2- Next supports are between 7996-8016
3- Next resistances are between 8108-8152
As clear selling patterns formations between 8061-8100 yesterday therefore Nifty could not sustain above it despite strong Asian and European markets today but more than 5 hours trading with mixed Patterns within this range between 8070-8094 today therefore it is clear that Indian markets are not technically prepared for any side decisive moves and will trade as well as prepare for next trend between 7996-8152 tomorrow because above mentioned supports and resistances are lying within this range.
As decisive big moves will be seen beyond 7996-8152 after Bihar Election results on 6th or 9th Nov therefore Nifty will remain sideways and prepare for it within this range tomorrow. Let clear technical positions formations develop then will be updated according to intraday charts patterns formations.
Firstly Watch 8100 amid Blasting Asian Markets
Pre-open Outlook(04-11-2015)
Most Asian markets have blasted today morning and are trading from 1.2% to 2.1% up at this moment therefore sentiment boosted and strong opening will be seen in Indian markets also. Clear selling patterns formations between Selling between 8081-8100 yesterday and firstly sustaining above 8100 should be watched for first signal of decisive up moves.
Firstly Watch 7996 amid Some More Down Moves
Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook
(04-11-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (03-Nov-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Selling between 8081-8100
2- Selling between 8061-8077
3- Whole day actual trading between 8032-8100
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Following lines were told yesterday in "Rally will gain strong Momentum above 8152":-
1- some more up moves will be seen
2- Next resistances between 8108-8152
3 Nifty will remain sideways between 7996-8152 tomorrow
Some more up moves were told yesterday and most of the time Nifty traded in positive zone as well as closed in Green today. Next resistances between 8108-8152 were also told and whole day Nifty traded below it with fresh selling also within above mentioned ranges therefore expected that down moves below today lowest will be seen and once valid breaking down of yesterday lowest(7996) will mean high possibility of sharp fall.
As both lower levels good consolidation and equally good higher levels selling between 7996-8100 in last 2 sessions therefore expected that Nifty will trade within this range tomorrow and prepare for next decisive moves beyond this range. It seems that Indian markets are preparing for next big moves after Bihar Election results. Let Nifty prepare and complete technical positions form then next trend will be updated according to more intraday charts analysis of the coming sessions.
As good selling today therefore some more down moves towards yesterday lowest(7996) will be seen tomorrow and firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched tomorrow.
Rally will gain strong Momentum above 8152
Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook
(03-11-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (02-Nov-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Consolidation between 7996-8016(Immediate Supports)
2- Whole day actual trading between 7996-8060
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although lower levels consolidation between 7996-8016 and this range will be immediate support of Nifty also but last hours up moves were on the back of European markets and Dow's strong recovery from lower levels therefore follow up consolidation with sustaining above today lowest(7996) is must for beginning of fresh decisive rally.
As Short Term oscillators are oversold and Bullish Hammer candle formation on today EOD chart therefore certainly indications of some more up moves but Short Term Trend reversal and strong momentum will be seen only after sustaining above next resistances between 8108-8152
Expected that some more up moves will be seen but Nifty will remain sideways between 7996-8152 tomorrow and follow up technical positions formations within this range will decide next decisive moves.
Correction Continuation towards next 7 Supports
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Nov 02 to Nov 06,2015)
Nifty-EOD Chart (30-Oct-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC' correction beginning)
7- Wave-A(7940.30 on 12-06-2015)
8- Wave-B(8654.75 on 23-07-2015)
9- Wave-C(7539.50 on 08-09-2015)
10- Pull Back Rally completion(8336.30 on 26-10-2015)
11- Pull Back Rally correction is on with recent bottom formation at 8044.40 on 30-10-2015
Waves structure of correction
Nifty-EOD Chart (30-Oct-2015):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and Wave-A of 'ABC' correction beginning after life time high formation)
2- Wave-A(7940.30 on 12-06-2015)
3- Wave-B(8654.75 on 23-07-2015)
4- Pull Back Rally completion(8336.30 on 26-10-2015)
5- Pull Back Rally correction is on with recent bottom formation at 8044.40 on 30-10-2015
6- Long Term Trend is sideways after Nifty hovering around its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8185) on 16-10-2015
Waves structure of Pull Back Rally
Nifty-EOD Chart (30-Oct-2015):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 7539.50 on 08-09-2015(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(8055.00 on 18-09-2015)
3- Wave-2(7691.20 on 29-09-2015)
4- Wave-3(8244.50 on 12-10-2015)
5- Wave-4(8088.60 on 13-10-2015)
6- Wave-5(8336.30 on 26-10-2015 and correction beginning)
7- correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 8044.40 on 30-10-2015
Fibonacci Retracement levels of on going correction
Nifty-EOD Chart (30-Oct-2015):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
Last 17 sessions intraday charts analysis
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Oct 05 to Oct 30,2015):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 27 Sessions trading range forcefully broken out on 05-10-2015
2- 15 sessions trading between 8090-8336 from 06-10-2015 to 29-10-2015
3- 15 Sessions trading range broken down on 30-10-2015
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Trends of Nifty are as follows:-
1- Short Term Trend turned down in on going correction
2- Intermediate Term Trend is up
3- Long Term Trend is sideways after Nifty hovering around its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8185) for last 17 sessions.
That Wave-1 which started on 28-08-2013 from 5118.85 gained 4000 points and completed at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 after many times new life times high formation. 'ABC' correction started which has given its completion signals at 7539.50 on 08-09-2015 from where Pull Back Rally begun. Now its correction is on with recent bottom formation at 8044.40 on 30-10-2015 and till now no indication of its completion. Fibonacci Retracement levels of on going correction are as follows:-
1- 13.0%- 8232(corrected)
2- 23.6%- 8148(corrected)
3- 27.0%- 8121(corrected)
4- 38.2%- 8031(Crucial)
5- 50.0%- 7937(Crucial)
6- 61.8%- 7843(Crucial)
7- 70.7%- 7772
8- 76.4%- 7727
9- 78.6%- 7710
10-88.6%- 7630
Nifty traded 27 Sessions between 7540-8092 from 24-08-2015 to 01-10-2015 and this range was forcefully broken out on 05-10-2015 which was a strong signal of 'ABC' correction completion at 7539.50 on 08-09-2015. Nifty remained sideways between 8090-8336 in 15 sessions and also closed 7 days above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8185) which was almost confirmation of strong rally after all trend turning up but this range was also forcefully broken down last Friday and Nifty closed within 27 sessions range at 8065.80 . It is clear that 2 sideways trading ranges of last 44 sessions are giving lower levels supports and higher levels resistances also therefore Nifty will be understood sideways within it between 7540-8336.
As downward momentum is on after 15 sessions range breaking down last Friday therefore correction continuation will be seen according to above mentioned Fibonacci Retracement levels towards following supports in next week:-
1- Supports between 8033-8067
2- Supports between 7940-7971
3- Supports between 7874-7908
4- Supports between 7837-7865
5- Supports between 7804-7830
6- Supports between 7695-7726
7- Supports between 7545-7582
Bearish Engulfing weekly candle formation last Friday and no signal of correction completion yet therefore until complete consolidation will not develop near about above mention levels till then correction completion will not be considered and much deeper correction will be seen only after failing to get supports at above levels.
Firstly Watch valid break out Strong Supports Range
Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook
(30-10-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (29-Oct-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 3 Hours Mixed Patterns formations between 8134-8159
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Whole day actual trading between 8098-8159
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
When Dow Jones was trading 105 points up and most European markets were also are more than 1% up as well as FOMC announcements were due at 11:30 PM(IST) yesterday then we posted Bearish views in following words at 09:21 PM in "Firstly Watch 8090 for deeper correction confirmations":-
1- still we are expecting some more down moves in Indian markets
2- strong supports of Nifty are between 8090-8124
3- Firstly watch valid break down of 8090 for deeper correction confirmations
4- some more down moves possibilities tomorrow
As was above projected yesterday all that proved 100% accurate in in following manner today;-
1- Whole day down moves were seen and once Nifty was down 73 points as well as closed after loosing 59.45 points today.
2- Strong supports were told between 8090-8124 and Nifty got supports within this range at 8098 as well as closed between this range at 8111.75 today.
Although whole day down moves and closing near the lower levels of the day today but as such selling patterns were not seen and first 3 hours trading was with Mixed Patterns formations between 8134-8159. As down moves in Bullish Falling Channel formations also in last hours also today within mentioned strong supports range(8090-8124) therefore its valid break out should be firstly watched in the coming sessions for:-
1- Deeper correction below 8090 because that will be confirmation of failure to sustain above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8186) also.
2- First signal of on going Short Term Correction completion above 8124.
Firstly Watch 8090 for deeper correction confirmations
Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook
(29-10-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (28-Oct-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- More than 3 hours selling between 8188-8209
2- Volatility with lower levels minor supports in last 2 hours
3- Whole day actual trading between 8132-8209
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Correction/Down moves were projected in following previous topics from 25-10-2015:-
1- On 25-10-2015 in "Short Term Correction Possibility amid Most Bullish News led Global Markets":-
2- On 26-10-2015 in "Firstly Watch 8186 for Long Term Trend Confirmations amid Some More Down Moves Possibilities":-
Only correction and down moves told which proved 100% acurate and Nifty slipped 204 points after 25-10-2015.
Although strong recovery from lower levels in last hours today but on the back of only minor supports at lower levels therefore until Nifty will not sustain above today highest(8209) after complete consolidation till then decisive up moves will not be considered because good selling at higher levels between 8188-8209 and it will be immediate resistance of Nifty.
Although strong rally in US(Dow 105 points up) and all European(most are more than 1% up) markets at this moment before FOMC announcements today at 11:30 PM (IST) but still we are expecting some more down moves in Indian markets because good selling at higher levels in last 7 sessions. Next strong supports of Nifty are between 8090-8124 therefore more follow up selling is firstly required now for decisive down moves and deeper correction.
Firstly watch valid break down of 8090 for deeper correction confirmations amid some more down moves possibilities tomorrow.
Firstly Watch 8186 for Long Term Trend Confirmations amid Some More Down Moves Possibilities
Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook
(27-10-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (26-Oct-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 4 Hours selling patterns formations between 8265-8290
2- Whole day actual trading between 8253-8336
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although blasting Global markets in last 2 sessions due to ECB economic stimulus and Chinese interest rate cuts news but Nifty intraday patterns of previous week were showing selling patterns formations therefore we told following lines on 25-10-2015 in current week analysis topic "Short Term Correction Possibility amid Most Bullish News led Global Markets":-
Certainly Short Term Correction possibility amid most Bullish news led Global markets is suggesting to watch sustaining beyond following 3 levels one by one:-
1- Last Friday Highest(8328.10)
2- Last Wednesday Highest(8294.40)
3- 200 Day EMA(today at 8186)
As good selling in previous week therefore slipping immediately after gap up strong opening and 4 hours follow up selling patterns formations between 8265-8290 also which is within previous week selling range 8240-8294 therefore previous week resistance ranges have turned stronger and emergence of some more down moves possibilities in the coming session.
Last 6 sessions closing above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8186) and its turning up almost confirmations also but above mentioned selling patterns above it therefore sustaining it beyond should also be firstly watched in the coming 2/3 sessions for valid break out confirmations of 200 Day EMA which seems to be at stake after emergence of some more down moves possibilities towards and below it.
Short Term Correction Possibility amid Most Bullish News led Global Markets
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Oct 26 to Oct 30,2015)
Nifty-EOD Chart (23-Oct-2015):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 7539.50 on 08-09-2015(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(8055.00 on 18-09-2015)
3- Wave-2(7691.20 on 29-09-2015)
4- Wave-3(8244.50 on 12-10-2015)
5- Wave-4(8088.60 on 13-10-2015)
6- Wave-5 continuation with recent top formation at 8328.10 on 23-10-2015
7- Long Term Trend turning up almost confirmations after 5 sessions closing above its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8186).
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Rally beginning after 'ABC' correction completion at 7539.50 on 08-09-2015 and now its continuation with all trends turning up almost confirmations.
Previous 4 sessions intraday charts analysis
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Oct 19 to Oct 23,2015):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Selling between 8240-8260 on 19-10-2015
2- Selling between 8271-8283 on 19-10-2015
3- Selling between 8280-8294 on 20-10-2015
4- Supports between 8230-8258 on 20-10-2015
5- Selling between 8272-8294 on 21-10-2015
6- Selling between 8252-8258 on 21-10-2015
7- Support between 8217-8240 on 21-10-2015
8- First 3 sessions trading between 8217-8294 with good selling and minor supports.
9- Mixed patterns formations on 23-10-2015
Conclusions from 4 Sessions intra day chart analysis
First 3 sessions trading between 8217-8294 with higher levels good selling and minor supports at lower levels therefore strong indications of correction below 3 sessions lowest(8217) but gap up opening was seen on 23-10-2015 after ECB Bullish news led blasting all Global markets.
As Mixed patterns formations on 23-10-2015(detailed analysis is given below) therefore valid break out confirmation of first 3 sessions trading range is still required.
Intra Day Chart Analysis(26-10-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (23-Oct-2015):-
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1- Minor selling between 8306-8315
2- Minor selling between 8306-8312
3- Whole day Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
4- Whole day actual trading between 8281-8328
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As ECB points to more economic stimulus therefore Dow Jones's triple century and strong closing of all the European markets on 22-10-2015 and resultant blasting all the Asian markets so gap up opening of Indian markets on 23-10-2015 but gap filled up through slipping below previous sessions highest(8294.40). Although whole day positive zone trading with 0.53% up closing but view will cautious due to following intraday developments:-
1- Indian markets completely under performed Global markets.
2- Minor selling patterns formations.
3- Whole day Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
As both buying and selling indications therefore Mixed patterns formations will be understood on 23-10-2015.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
As Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8186) forcefully broken out on 16-10-2015 and last 4 sessions closing above it also therefore strong signals of fresh rally beginning towards and above life time high but for next Short Term Trend view is cautious due to following reasons which are indicating Short Term Correction possibility also:-
1- Short Term indicators turned overbought after previous 30 sessions 788 points rally.
2- 5th Wave of on going Short Term Rally continuation
3- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8186) forcefully broken out on 16-10-2015 but after that good intraday selling in next 3 sessions.
As interest-rate cuts in China last Friday therefore strong closing of all European and US markets last Friday and in reactions such strength will be seen in all Asian markets tomorrow therefore strong opening will be seen in Indian markets also. Last Friday strong markets were on the back of ECB economic stimulus news and next Monday surging markets will be Chinese interest rate cuts led but will not be the result of technical positions formations. Except that all the Global markets will have to prepare in next 3 sessions for post FOMC trading on 29-10-2015 which will be Oct Derivative Expiry day also therefore view will be cautious and watchful in following manner:-
1- Sustaining above last 2 sessions highest should be firstly watched next Monday after strong opening due to Chinese interest rate cuts news.
2- As trading on next Tuesday and Wednesday will be news free therefore intraday technical patterns formation will be seen and then final view will be formed accordingly for next trend.
Certainly Short Term Correction possibility amid most Bullish news led Global markets is suggesting to watch sustaining beyond following 3 levels one by one:-
1- Last Friday Highest(8328.10)
2- Last Wednesday Highest(8294.40)
3- 200 Day EMA(today at 8186)
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