Firstly Up moves Expectations amid On Going Correction
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Nov 16 to Nov 20,2015)
Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Nov-2015):- |
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1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and Wave-A of 'ABC' correction beginning after life time high formation)
2- Wave-A(7940.30 on 12-06-2015)
3- Wave-B(8654.75 on 23-07-2015)
4- Wave-C(7539.50 on 08-09-2015)
5- Pull Back Rally completion(8336.30 on 26-10-2015)
6- Pull Back Rally correction is on with recent bottom formation at 7730.90 on 13-11-2015
Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Nov-2015):-
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1- 7539.50 on 08-09-2015(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(8055.00 on 18-09-2015)
3- Wave-2(7691.20 on 29-09-2015)
4- Wave-3(8244.50 on 12-10-2015)
5- Wave-4(8088.60 on 13-10-2015)
6- Wave-5(8336.30 on 26-10-2015 and correction beginning)
7- Correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 7730.90 on 13-11-2015
Intra Day Chart Analysis(13-11-2015)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (13-Nov-2015):-
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1- Consolidation between 7731-7760
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Good intraday corrections in last hours
4- Whole day actual trading between 7731-7775
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As all the Global markets were in deep Red therefore huge gap down opening but whole day 44 points sideways trading with good intraday consolidation patterns formations therefore emergence of some decisive up moves expectations in the Next week. Dow Jones closed 202 points down last Friday and if in its reaction Asian markers also remains weak then initial down moves may be seen in Indian markets also but until Nifty will not sustain below day's lowest(7731) after fresh selling till then decisive down moves will not be seen and once sustaining above day's highest(7775) after follow up consolidation will mean strong Pull Back Rally next week.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
18 Months 4000 points strong rally(from 28-08-2013 to 04-03-2015 and from 5118.85 to 9119.20) with many times new life time high formation and after that 'ABC' correction begun which gave its completion signals at 7539.50 on 08-09-2015. Then Pull Back rally started from 7539.50 on 08-09-2015 which completed its 5th Wave at 8336.30 on 26-10-2015 and after that its correction begun which is in continuation with recent bottom formation at 7730.90 on 13-11-2015.
Pull Back Rally completed at 8336.30 on 26-10-2015 and correction begun. Fibonacci Retracement levels of on going correction are as follows:-
1- 13.0%- 8232(corrected)
2- 23.6%- 8148(corrected)
3- 27.0%- 8121(corrected)
4- 38.2%- 8031(Crucial level corrected)
5- 50.0%- 7937(Crucial level corrected)
6- 61.8%- 7843(Crucial level corrected)
7- 70.7%- 7772(corrected)
8- 76.4%- 7727
9- 78.6%- 7710
10-88.6%- 7630
Recent bottom formation of on going correction is at 7730.90 which means that 76.4% retracement has almost been completed. As such deeper correction of previous Pull Back Rally therefore possibility of slipping below its lowest(7539.50) can not be ruled out now. Once slipping below it will mean recalculation of waves structure of on going that correction which from 9119.20 on 04-03-2015,let Nifty slip below 7539.50 then will be updated accordingly.
Next supports of Nifty are as follows:-
1- Supports between 7731-7760
2- Supports between 7695-7726
3- Supports between 7545-7582
As intraday good consolidation on 13-11-2015 therefore signals of some up moves beginning in next week and firstly sustaining above first supports(7731-7760) should be watched in the beginning of next week. Valid break out of 7760 will mean fresh Pull Back rally and valid breaking down of 7731 will mean correction continuation towards the bottom(7539.50) of previous Pull Back Rally. Once slipping below 7539.50 will mean fresh down moves gates opening,let it happen then levels below it will be updated.
Following points are suggesting fresh rally after on going correction completion above 7539.50:-
1- Wave'C' corrected up to 7539.50 which was very little more than Wave'A',it means that Wave'C' corrected 100% of Wave'A',it is an indication of correction completion also.
2- Previous week down moves were on the back Bihar results and weaker global markets.
3- Intraday patterns on last few sessions showed consolidation patterns formations and selling patterns were not seen.
Some up moves are expected and correction completion will be considered after sustaining above following levels:-
1- Next resistances between 8108-8152
2- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8163)
Final conclusion is that correction is on and no confirmation of its completion yet but indications of its completion which requires confirmations through sustaining above next resistances and crucial levels and deeper correction will be considered after slipping below 7539.50 but some up moves are firstly expected in next week after consolidation last Friday and some more previous sessions.