Down moves but without selling patterns and on the back of weakening Indian Rupee as well as more than 40 points down Dow's Futures therefore next trend confirmation is must through valid break out of levels which have been updated in Mid-session Outlook(27-09-2013).
ॐ ह्रीं श्रीं लक्ष्मीभयो नमः॥
Mid-session Outlook-2(27-09-2013)
Although not sustaining at higher levels and slipping after some recovery from lower levels but today intraday patterns are not showing any side clear formations therefore valid break out of 5846-5905 should be watched for next moves first indication.
Mid-session Outlook(27-09-2013)
Range bound market between following 2 ranges with lower levels buying and higher levels selling also:-
1- 5811-6033
2- 5779-6140
Next trend first indication will be after valid break out of 1st range and confirmation will be after sustaining beyond 2nd range. Today down moves after selling in previous sessions and now trading near the lower levels of today but some supports also seen therefore some up moves are possible
1- 5811-6033
2- 5779-6140
Next trend first indication will be after valid break out of 1st range and confirmation will be after sustaining beyond 2nd range. Today down moves after selling in previous sessions and now trading near the lower levels of today but some supports also seen therefore some up moves are possible
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(27-09-2013)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (26-Sep-2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Selling between 5898-5917
2- Selling between 5887-5896
3- Whole day actual trading between 5864-5917
Although Nifty closed near the lower levels of the day after loosing most intraday gains but when Indian markets were trading near the higher levels of the day then following lines were told at 02:28 PM in Mid-session Outlook-2(26-09-2013):-
Firstly higher levels good selling and after that closing near the lower levels of the day today therefore more down moves are expected. Follow up selling and sustaining below following supports will mean steep fall and deeper correction as well as its possibility turned higher today:-
1- 5811-5835
2- 5779-5810
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1- Selling between 5898-5917
2- Selling between 5887-5896
3- Whole day actual trading between 5864-5917
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although Nifty closed near the lower levels of the day after loosing most intraday gains but when Indian markets were trading near the higher levels of the day then following lines were told at 02:28 PM in Mid-session Outlook-2(26-09-2013):-
Although Nifty is trading near the higher levels of the day and .52% up also at this moment but today intraday charts patterns are showing selling formations.
Firstly higher levels good selling and after that closing near the lower levels of the day today therefore more down moves are expected. Follow up selling and sustaining below following supports will mean steep fall and deeper correction as well as its possibility turned higher today:-
1- 5811-5835
2- 5779-5810
Mid-session Outlook-2(26-09-2013)
Although Nifty is trading near the higher levels of the day and .52% up also at this moment but today intraday charts patterns are showing selling formations.
Mid-session Outlook(26-09-2013)
Following line was told yesterday in both previous Outlooks:-
As supports below 5835 and resistances above 5905 therefore current month expiry is expected within 5835-5905 tomorrow.
Nifty traded first 3 hours today within mentioned range between 5864.10-5900.30.
As supports below 5835 and resistances above 5905 therefore current month expiry is expected within 5835-5905 tomorrow.
Nifty traded first 3 hours today within mentioned range between 5864.10-5900.30.
Sideways quiet market today with some lower levels supports therefore some recovery is being seen but expiry is expected within mentioned range and may near 5900.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(26-09-2013)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (25-Sep-2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Selling between 5895-5910
2- Consolidation between 5811-5835
3- Mixed Patterns between 5857-5885
3- Whole day actual trading between 5811-5910
Correction continuation and firstly down moves after higher levels selling but lower levels good consolidation also seen today. As today consolidation is between the lower levels of previous support range(5779-5896) therefore previous lower levels supports have been strengthened but higher levels selling also seen above this range therefore sustaining beyond mentioned support range(5779-5896) should be firstly watched in the coming sessions.
All trends are up but higher levels continuous selling for the last 5 sessions therefore Nifty is well poised for deeper correction also but immediate strong supports lying at lower levels between 5779-5835 therefore follow up complete selling is required in the coming sessions for sustaining below 5779.
Mixed Patterns formation in last hour between 5857-5885 today therefore sustaining beyond this range will be next moves 1st signal but it should be kept in mind that next big trend will be decided by valid break out of previous 12 sessions trading range(5779-6140).
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1- Selling between 5895-5910
2- Consolidation between 5811-5835
3- Mixed Patterns between 5857-5885
3- Whole day actual trading between 5811-5910
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Correction continuation and firstly down moves after higher levels selling but lower levels good consolidation also seen today. As today consolidation is between the lower levels of previous support range(5779-5896) therefore previous lower levels supports have been strengthened but higher levels selling also seen above this range therefore sustaining beyond mentioned support range(5779-5896) should be firstly watched in the coming sessions.
All trends are up but higher levels continuous selling for the last 5 sessions therefore Nifty is well poised for deeper correction also but immediate strong supports lying at lower levels between 5779-5835 therefore follow up complete selling is required in the coming sessions for sustaining below 5779.
Mixed Patterns formation in last hour between 5857-5885 today therefore sustaining beyond this range will be next moves 1st signal but it should be kept in mind that next big trend will be decided by valid break out of previous 12 sessions trading range(5779-6140).
It is clear that Indian markets are not prepared for any side decisive break out and will remain sideways tomorrow as well as prepare for next trend. As supports below 5835 and resistances above 5905 therefore current month expiry is expected within 5835-5905 tomorrow.
Post-closing Report(25-09-2013)
As soon as Nifty got supports are lower levels then we updated bounce posssibility in previous Outlook and Nifty recovered strongly from lower levels. Supports below 5830 and resistances above 5905 therefore current month expiry is expected within 5830-5905 tomorrow
Mid-session Outlook-2(25-09-2013)
As more than 3 hours trading within support range above 5779 with intraday supports above 5814 today therefore some bounce is possible
Mid-session Outlook(25-09-2013)
Although Nifty traded more than 80 points down but when was thrading in Green then we clearly told for Selling patterns formations in previous Outlook before the beginning of sharp down moves. Forceful down moves today but now trading within support range therefore some volatility can not be ruled out and once sustaining below 5779 will mean deeper correction and trend reversal will be considered after sustaining below 200-Day EMA(today at 5748)
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(25-09-2013)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (24-Sep-2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Selling between 5908-5938
2- Support between 5854-5890
3- Whole day actual trading between 5854-5938
Correction continuation after 16 sessions 1023 points strong rally with following immediate supports and resistances:-
1- Strong supports between 5779-5896
2- Resistances between 5908-5938
3- Resistances between 6095-6140
As lower levels strong supports and higher levels selling as well as complete selling was required for decisive down moves and deeper correction therefore following topic with detailed technical analysis was posted on 22-09-2013:-
correction begun after 5 Waves formations therefore correction of whole 1023 points rally became due and being seen. As Bull markets complete its correction within sideways moves also therefore firstly sustaining beyond 5779-6140 should be watched because lower levels strong supports within this range.
Although good selling at higher levels but lower levels supports also seen today and strong supports below today trading range also therefore more selling is required for for deeper correction below 5779. Firstly sustaining beyond 5779-5938 should be watched for next trend confirmations and until Nifty is sustaining above 200-Day EMA(today at 5748) till then Long Term up trend will remain intact.
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1- Selling between 5908-5938
2- Support between 5854-5890
3- Whole day actual trading between 5854-5938
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Correction continuation after 16 sessions 1023 points strong rally with following immediate supports and resistances:-
1- Strong supports between 5779-5896
2- Resistances between 5908-5938
3- Resistances between 6095-6140
As lower levels strong supports and higher levels selling as well as complete selling was required for decisive down moves and deeper correction therefore following topic with detailed technical analysis was posted on 22-09-2013:-
correction begun after 5 Waves formations therefore correction of whole 1023 points rally became due and being seen. As Bull markets complete its correction within sideways moves also therefore firstly sustaining beyond 5779-6140 should be watched because lower levels strong supports within this range.
Although good selling at higher levels but lower levels supports also seen today and strong supports below today trading range also therefore more selling is required for for deeper correction below 5779. Firstly sustaining beyond 5779-5938 should be watched for next trend confirmations and until Nifty is sustaining above 200-Day EMA(today at 5748) till then Long Term up trend will remain intact.
Pre-closing Outlook(24-09-2013)
Selling patterns formations but some supports also seen at lower levels today therefore sustaining beyond today trading range should be watched tomorrow because complete selling is required for decisive down moves.
Mid-session Outlook(24-09-2013)
Selling patterns formations seen today but complete selling is required for decisive down moves.
Pre-open Outlook(24-09-2013)
Most Asian markets are flat to weak today after Red closing of US markets yesterday therefore sentiment is weak and negative opening will be seen in Indian markets. Although correction is on and some down moves are possible after weaker Global cues today but good consolidation in previous weeks between 5779-5888 and consolidation patterns formations seen between 5871-5896 yesterday also therefore sustaining beyond 5779-5896 should be watched for deeper correction or correction completion within sideways market.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(24-09-2013)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (23-Sep-2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Higher levels selling.
2- Consolidation between 5871-5896
3- Whole day actual trading between 5871-5989
Firstly higher levels some selling but consolidation also seen in last 3 hours therefore some up moves can not be ruled out between 5900-6050 because consolidation seen just above strong support range(5779-5888).
As correction is on therefore firstly sustaining above 5900 should also be watched for next up moves confirmations.
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1- Higher levels selling.
2- Consolidation between 5871-5896
3- Whole day actual trading between 5871-5989
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Firstly higher levels some selling but consolidation also seen in last 3 hours therefore some up moves can not be ruled out between 5900-6050 because consolidation seen just above strong support range(5779-5888).
As correction is on therefore firstly sustaining above 5900 should also be watched for next up moves confirmations.
Pre-closing Outlook(23-09-2013)
Although higher levels selling today and previous 2 sessions but strong supports also at lower levels between 5779-5888 and some consolidation also seen at lower levels today therefore some up moves can not be ruled out between 5900-6050.
Mid-session Outlook-2(23-09-2013)
Correction continuation after higher levels selling today and previous 2 sessions but strong supports also at lower levels between 5779-5888,now trading within this range and finally sustaining beyond this range should be watched for deeper/sideways correction.
Mid-session Outlook(23-09-2013)
As on going rally completed 5 waves in its up moves therefore its correction was due and going on today. Nifty traded more than 1.5% down with lowest formation at 5907.35 which is just above 7 Sessions strong consolidation range(5779-5888) and until complete selling will not develop till then 5779 will not be broken down,sustaining beyond this range should be firstly watched for sideways or deeper correction.
Range Bound Market between 5779-6140 for Next Trend Preparation
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Sep 23 to Sep 27,2013)
Nifty-EOD Chart between 22-09-2003 and 20-09-2013):-
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1- 1300.25 on 22-09-2003.
2- 6357.10 on 08-01-2008(All time high formation)
3- 2252.75 on 27-10-2008
4- 6338.50 on 05-11-2010
5- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011
6- 200-Day DMA- Today at 5842
7- 200-Day EMA- Today at 5745
8- Hovering aroung Long Term Trend deciding 200-Day DMA and EMA
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
All trends are up and last 3 sessions closing 200-Day DMA and EMA but hovering around it for the last 4 years with trading between 4531-6338.
Nifty-Weekly Chart (20-Sep-2013):-
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1- 2252.75 on 27-10-2008(Wave-1 begining after 2008 correction completion)
2- Impulsive Wave-1 Completion at 6338.50 on 05-11-2010.
3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 4531.15 on 20-12-2011.
4- Impulsive Wave-3 Completion at 6229.45 on 20-05-2013.
5- Corrective Wave-4 completion at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013.
6- Impulsive Wave-5 continuation and its recent top formation at 6142.50 on 19-09-2013
7- 200-Week DMA- Today at 5459
8- 200-Week EMA- Today at 5333
Conclusions from Weekly chart analysis
Nifty got supports many times near about 200-Week DMA and EMA in last 3 years and Strong Rally seen after getting support at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 as well as impulsive Wave-5 continuation but confirmation is required yet through sustaining above the top of Wave-3(6229.45).
Nifty-EOD Chart (20-Sep-2013):-
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1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally beginning after 13 Months correction completion)
2- Wave-1(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave-2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Wave-3(6111.80 on 29-01-2013)
5- Wave-4(5477.20 on 10-04-2012)
6- Wave-5(6229.45 on 20-05-2013)('ABC'Correction beginning after 17 Months Rally completion)
7- Wave-A(5566.25 on 24-06-2013)
8- Wave-B(6093.35 on 23-07-2013)
9- Wave-C(5118.85 on 28-08-2013)('ABC'Correction completion after 3 Months correction completion)
10- Strong Rally continuation and top formation at 6142.50 on 19-09-2013.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Strong Rally continuation after 'ABC'Correction completion and recent top formation at 6142.50 on 19-09-2013.
Waves structure of on going 16 sessions strong Rally
Nifty-EOD Chart (20-Sep-2013):-
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1- Bottom formation at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and Wave-1 beginning
2- Wave-1(5580.95 on 03-09-2013)
3- Wave-2(5318.90 on 04-09-2013)
4- Wave-3(5957.25 on 16-09-2013)
5- Wave-4(5798.15 on 16-09-2013)
6- Wave-5 continuation and top formation at 6142.50 on 19-09-2013
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Huge gap up opening on 19-09-2013 after FOMC decision of not rushing to taper Bond buying programme and recent top formation at 6142.50 but sharp fall also seen on next day after RBI Credit policy but Wave-5 continuation will be understood until its completion confirmation will not be seen.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Sep 10 to Sep 20,2013):-
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1- 7 Sessions strong consolidation between 5779-5888
2- Selling between 6095-6140
3- 9 Sessions actual trading between 5779-6140
Conclusions from 9 Sessions intra day chart analysis
Although sharp fall seen on 20-09-2013 after some selling at higher levels in last 2 sessions but until complete selling will not develop till then Nifty will not slip below 5779 because huge gap up opening on 19-09-2013 after 7 sessions strong consolidation between 5779-5888.
3 Lower Tops and Resistances
Nifty-EOD Chart (20-Sep-2013):-
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1- 6357.10 on 08-01-2008(All time high formation)
2- 2nd Top formation at 6338.50 on 05-11-2010
3- 3rd Top formation at 6229.45 on 20-05-2013
4- Recent top formation at 6142.50 on 19-09-2013
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
3 Lower tops formations in last 5 years and these levels are psychological resistances also therefore more consolidation is must for new all time high formations because higher levels selling seen just below above mentioned 3 tops in last 2 sessions.
Conclusions (After Putting All Indicators Together)
Last 16 sessions strong rally reversed whole sentiment from most Bearish to most Bullish and turned all trends up. As on going rally completed 5 waves in its 1023 points up moves therefore its correction is required and it would have begun also after last 2 sessions selling and slipping from higher levels.
As rally started after completion of 'ABC' correction of Wave-4 therefore up moves above Wave-3 top(6229.45) will be expected but more condolidation is also required because resistances of 3 Lower tops formations in last 6 years and higher levels selling also in last 2 sessions as well as correction of last 16 sessions 1023 points rally is also due.
Higher levels selling between 6095-6140 in last 2 sessions but 7 sessions good consolidation between 5779-5888 therefore Nifty will not slip below it easily and until Nifty is above 5779 till then on going rally is very much safe. Expected that Nifty will firstly trade between 9 Sessions actual trading range(5779-6140) and it should be kept in mind that Bull markets complete its correction in range bound markets also therefore sustaining beyond this range should be watched in the coming week for correction completion/continuation. It is confirm that until complete selling patterns will not develop on Daily charts till then deeper correction will not be seen and Nifty will remain above 5779.
Nifty is trading between 4531-6338 for the last 4 years and finally sustaining beyond this range will form new cycle as was formed in late 2003 after break out of previous 11 years range. As Wave-5 is on therefore rally above 6338 can not be ruled out in the coming weeks/months but complete consolidation is must because multiple resistances upto 6338.
Nifty will prepare for next trend between 5779-6140 in the coming week/weeks and finally sustaining beyond this range should be watched for next trend confirmations.
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