Range Bound Market between 5779-6140 for Next Trend Preparation
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Sep 23 to Sep 27,2013)
Nifty-EOD Chart between 22-09-2003 and 20-09-2013):-
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 1300.25 on 22-09-2003.
2- 6357.10 on 08-01-2008(All time high formation)
3- 2252.75 on 27-10-2008
4- 6338.50 on 05-11-2010
5- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011
6- 200-Day DMA- Today at 5842
7- 200-Day EMA- Today at 5745
8- Hovering aroung Long Term Trend deciding 200-Day DMA and EMA
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
All trends are up and last 3 sessions closing 200-Day DMA and EMA but hovering around it for the last 4 years with trading between 4531-6338.
Nifty-Weekly Chart (20-Sep-2013):-
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 2252.75 on 27-10-2008(Wave-1 begining after 2008 correction completion)
2- Impulsive Wave-1 Completion at 6338.50 on 05-11-2010.
3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 4531.15 on 20-12-2011.
4- Impulsive Wave-3 Completion at 6229.45 on 20-05-2013.
5- Corrective Wave-4 completion at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013.
6- Impulsive Wave-5 continuation and its recent top formation at 6142.50 on 19-09-2013
7- 200-Week DMA- Today at 5459
8- 200-Week EMA- Today at 5333
Conclusions from Weekly chart analysis
Nifty got supports many times near about 200-Week DMA and EMA in last 3 years and Strong Rally seen after getting support at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 as well as impulsive Wave-5 continuation but confirmation is required yet through sustaining above the top of Wave-3(6229.45).
Nifty-EOD Chart (20-Sep-2013):-
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally beginning after 13 Months correction completion)
2- Wave-1(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave-2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Wave-3(6111.80 on 29-01-2013)
5- Wave-4(5477.20 on 10-04-2012)
6- Wave-5(6229.45 on 20-05-2013)('ABC'Correction beginning after 17 Months Rally completion)
7- Wave-A(5566.25 on 24-06-2013)
8- Wave-B(6093.35 on 23-07-2013)
9- Wave-C(5118.85 on 28-08-2013)('ABC'Correction completion after 3 Months correction completion)
10- Strong Rally continuation and top formation at 6142.50 on 19-09-2013.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Strong Rally continuation after 'ABC'Correction completion and recent top formation at 6142.50 on 19-09-2013.
Waves structure of on going 16 sessions strong Rally
Nifty-EOD Chart (20-Sep-2013):-
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Bottom formation at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and Wave-1 beginning
2- Wave-1(5580.95 on 03-09-2013)
3- Wave-2(5318.90 on 04-09-2013)
4- Wave-3(5957.25 on 16-09-2013)
5- Wave-4(5798.15 on 16-09-2013)
6- Wave-5 continuation and top formation at 6142.50 on 19-09-2013
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Huge gap up opening on 19-09-2013 after FOMC decision of not rushing to taper Bond buying programme and recent top formation at 6142.50 but sharp fall also seen on next day after RBI Credit policy but Wave-5 continuation will be understood until its completion confirmation will not be seen.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Sep 10 to Sep 20,2013):-
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 7 Sessions strong consolidation between 5779-5888
2- Selling between 6095-6140
3- 9 Sessions actual trading between 5779-6140
Conclusions from 9 Sessions intra day chart analysis
Although sharp fall seen on 20-09-2013 after some selling at higher levels in last 2 sessions but until complete selling will not develop till then Nifty will not slip below 5779 because huge gap up opening on 19-09-2013 after 7 sessions strong consolidation between 5779-5888.
3 Lower Tops and Resistances
Nifty-EOD Chart (20-Sep-2013):-
 |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 6357.10 on 08-01-2008(All time high formation)
2- 2nd Top formation at 6338.50 on 05-11-2010
3- 3rd Top formation at 6229.45 on 20-05-2013
4- Recent top formation at 6142.50 on 19-09-2013
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
3 Lower tops formations in last 5 years and these levels are psychological resistances also therefore more consolidation is must for new all time high formations because higher levels selling seen just below above mentioned 3 tops in last 2 sessions.
Conclusions (After Putting All Indicators Together)
Last 16 sessions strong rally reversed whole sentiment from most Bearish to most Bullish and turned all trends up. As on going rally completed 5 waves in its 1023 points up moves therefore its correction is required and it would have begun also after last 2 sessions selling and slipping from higher levels.
As rally started after completion of 'ABC' correction of Wave-4 therefore up moves above Wave-3 top(6229.45) will be expected but more condolidation is also required because resistances of 3 Lower tops formations in last 6 years and higher levels selling also in last 2 sessions as well as correction of last 16 sessions 1023 points rally is also due.
Higher levels selling between 6095-6140 in last 2 sessions but 7 sessions good consolidation between 5779-5888 therefore Nifty will not slip below it easily and until Nifty is above 5779 till then on going rally is very much safe. Expected that Nifty will firstly trade between 9 Sessions actual trading range(5779-6140) and it should be kept in mind that Bull markets complete its correction in range bound markets also therefore sustaining beyond this range should be watched in the coming week for correction completion/continuation. It is confirm that until complete selling patterns will not develop on Daily charts till then deeper correction will not be seen and Nifty will remain above 5779.
Nifty is trading between 4531-6338 for the last 4 years and finally sustaining beyond this range will form new cycle as was formed in late 2003 after break out of previous 11 years range. As Wave-5 is on therefore rally above 6338 can not be ruled out in the coming weeks/months but complete consolidation is must because multiple resistances upto 6338.
Nifty will prepare for next trend between 5779-6140 in the coming week/weeks and finally sustaining beyond this range should be watched for next trend confirmations.