Although higher levels selling today and previous 2 sessions but strong supports also at lower levels between 5779-5888 and some consolidation also seen at lower levels today therefore some up moves can not be ruled out between 5900-6050.
ॐ ह्रीं श्रीं लक्ष्मीभयो नमः॥
Mid-session Outlook-2(23-09-2013)
Correction continuation after higher levels selling today and previous 2 sessions but strong supports also at lower levels between 5779-5888,now trading within this range and finally sustaining beyond this range should be watched for deeper/sideways correction.
Mid-session Outlook(23-09-2013)
As on going rally completed 5 waves in its up moves therefore its correction was due and going on today. Nifty traded more than 1.5% down with lowest formation at 5907.35 which is just above 7 Sessions strong consolidation range(5779-5888) and until complete selling will not develop till then 5779 will not be broken down,sustaining beyond this range should be firstly watched for sideways or deeper correction.
Range Bound Market between 5779-6140 for Next Trend Preparation
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Sep 23 to Sep 27,2013)
Nifty-EOD Chart between 22-09-2003 and 20-09-2013):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 1300.25 on 22-09-2003.
2- 6357.10 on 08-01-2008(All time high formation)
3- 2252.75 on 27-10-2008
4- 6338.50 on 05-11-2010
5- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011
6- 200-Day DMA- Today at 5842
7- 200-Day EMA- Today at 5745
8- Hovering aroung Long Term Trend deciding 200-Day DMA and EMA
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
All trends are up and last 3 sessions closing 200-Day DMA and EMA but hovering around it for the last 4 years with trading between 4531-6338.
Nifty-Weekly Chart (20-Sep-2013):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 2252.75 on 27-10-2008(Wave-1 begining after 2008 correction completion)
2- Impulsive Wave-1 Completion at 6338.50 on 05-11-2010.
3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 4531.15 on 20-12-2011.
4- Impulsive Wave-3 Completion at 6229.45 on 20-05-2013.
5- Corrective Wave-4 completion at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013.
6- Impulsive Wave-5 continuation and its recent top formation at 6142.50 on 19-09-2013
7- 200-Week DMA- Today at 5459
8- 200-Week EMA- Today at 5333
Conclusions from Weekly chart analysis
Nifty got supports many times near about 200-Week DMA and EMA in last 3 years and Strong Rally seen after getting support at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 as well as impulsive Wave-5 continuation but confirmation is required yet through sustaining above the top of Wave-3(6229.45).
Nifty-EOD Chart (20-Sep-2013):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally beginning after 13 Months correction completion)
2- Wave-1(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave-2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Wave-3(6111.80 on 29-01-2013)
5- Wave-4(5477.20 on 10-04-2012)
6- Wave-5(6229.45 on 20-05-2013)('ABC'Correction beginning after 17 Months Rally completion)
7- Wave-A(5566.25 on 24-06-2013)
8- Wave-B(6093.35 on 23-07-2013)
9- Wave-C(5118.85 on 28-08-2013)('ABC'Correction completion after 3 Months correction completion)
10- Strong Rally continuation and top formation at 6142.50 on 19-09-2013.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Strong Rally continuation after 'ABC'Correction completion and recent top formation at 6142.50 on 19-09-2013.
Waves structure of on going 16 sessions strong Rally
Nifty-EOD Chart (20-Sep-2013):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Bottom formation at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and Wave-1 beginning
2- Wave-1(5580.95 on 03-09-2013)
3- Wave-2(5318.90 on 04-09-2013)
4- Wave-3(5957.25 on 16-09-2013)
5- Wave-4(5798.15 on 16-09-2013)
6- Wave-5 continuation and top formation at 6142.50 on 19-09-2013
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Huge gap up opening on 19-09-2013 after FOMC decision of not rushing to taper Bond buying programme and recent top formation at 6142.50 but sharp fall also seen on next day after RBI Credit policy but Wave-5 continuation will be understood until its completion confirmation will not be seen.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Sep 10 to Sep 20,2013):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 7 Sessions strong consolidation between 5779-5888
2- Selling between 6095-6140
3- 9 Sessions actual trading between 5779-6140
Conclusions from 9 Sessions intra day chart analysis
Although sharp fall seen on 20-09-2013 after some selling at higher levels in last 2 sessions but until complete selling will not develop till then Nifty will not slip below 5779 because huge gap up opening on 19-09-2013 after 7 sessions strong consolidation between 5779-5888.
3 Lower Tops and Resistances
Nifty-EOD Chart (20-Sep-2013):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 6357.10 on 08-01-2008(All time high formation)
2- 2nd Top formation at 6338.50 on 05-11-2010
3- 3rd Top formation at 6229.45 on 20-05-2013
4- Recent top formation at 6142.50 on 19-09-2013
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
3 Lower tops formations in last 5 years and these levels are psychological resistances also therefore more consolidation is must for new all time high formations because higher levels selling seen just below above mentioned 3 tops in last 2 sessions.
Conclusions (After Putting All Indicators Together)
Last 16 sessions strong rally reversed whole sentiment from most Bearish to most Bullish and turned all trends up. As on going rally completed 5 waves in its 1023 points up moves therefore its correction is required and it would have begun also after last 2 sessions selling and slipping from higher levels.
As rally started after completion of 'ABC' correction of Wave-4 therefore up moves above Wave-3 top(6229.45) will be expected but more condolidation is also required because resistances of 3 Lower tops formations in last 6 years and higher levels selling also in last 2 sessions as well as correction of last 16 sessions 1023 points rally is also due.
Higher levels selling between 6095-6140 in last 2 sessions but 7 sessions good consolidation between 5779-5888 therefore Nifty will not slip below it easily and until Nifty is above 5779 till then on going rally is very much safe. Expected that Nifty will firstly trade between 9 Sessions actual trading range(5779-6140) and it should be kept in mind that Bull markets complete its correction in range bound markets also therefore sustaining beyond this range should be watched in the coming week for correction completion/continuation. It is confirm that until complete selling patterns will not develop on Daily charts till then deeper correction will not be seen and Nifty will remain above 5779.
Nifty is trading between 4531-6338 for the last 4 years and finally sustaining beyond this range will form new cycle as was formed in late 2003 after break out of previous 11 years range. As Wave-5 is on therefore rally above 6338 can not be ruled out in the coming weeks/months but complete consolidation is must because multiple resistances upto 6338.
Nifty will prepare for next trend between 5779-6140 in the coming week/weeks and finally sustaining beyond this range should be watched for next trend confirmations.
Post-open Outlook(13-09-2013)
Although all the Asian were sufficiently down and SGX Nifty was also trading more than 60 points weak but Indian markets were not prepared for any side decisive moves therefore Nifty recovered strongly after formation of lowest at 5822.90. Following conclusive lines were told yesterday in previous Outlook and should be kept in mind:-
Let market prepare for next trend within mentioned range then will be updated according to intraday charts formations.
Expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next decisive moves near about 5917-5924 and sustaining beyond this range should be firstly watched in the coming sessions for Long Term Trend confirmations.
Let market prepare for next trend within mentioned range then will be updated according to intraday charts formations.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(13-09-2013)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (12-Sep-2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Down moves in Falling channel with both minor selling and some supports also.
2- Lower levels supports in last hour between 5917-5935
3- Whole day actual trading between 5917-5904
Following line was told yesterday in Emergence of Correction Possibility:-
1- more possibility of down moves below 5835 in the coming sessions.
2- possibility of firstly trading between today trading range(5835-5924)
Although more than 5 hours continuous down moves immediately after opening today but without as such selling patterns formations and it was updated also in both previous Outlooks resultant lower levels support in last hour and Nifty recovered more than 45 points.
Intermediate and Short Term Trends are up and Long Term Trend will be up after the confirmation of sustaining above its decider 200-Day EMA(today at 5734). As last 2 sessions trading between 5917-5924 with both selling and buying therefore firstly one sided positions formations are required for next decisive trend. Expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next decisive moves near about 5917-5924 and sustaining beyond this range should be firstly watched in the coming sessions for Long Term Trend confirmations.
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Down moves in Falling channel with both minor selling and some supports also.
2- Lower levels supports in last hour between 5917-5935
3- Whole day actual trading between 5917-5904
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Following line was told yesterday in Emergence of Correction Possibility:-
1- more possibility of down moves below 5835 in the coming sessions.
2- possibility of firstly trading between today trading range(5835-5924)
As was told yesterday 100% same happened today and almost whole day down moves were seen as well as Nifty slipped below 5935,Nifty traded most time and closed within already mentioned range(5835-5924) also.
Although more than 5 hours continuous down moves immediately after opening today but without as such selling patterns formations and it was updated also in both previous Outlooks resultant lower levels support in last hour and Nifty recovered more than 45 points.
Intermediate and Short Term Trends are up and Long Term Trend will be up after the confirmation of sustaining above its decider 200-Day EMA(today at 5734). As last 2 sessions trading between 5917-5924 with both selling and buying therefore firstly one sided positions formations are required for next decisive trend. Expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next decisive moves near about 5917-5924 and sustaining beyond this range should be firstly watched in the coming sessions for Long Term Trend confirmations.
Pre-closing Outlook(12-09-2013)
Although possibility of down moves below 5835 was told yesterday and now Nifty is trading below it also after formation of lowest at 5815.80 but sustaining below 5835 should be firstly watched tomorrow for decisive down moves confirmations because as such selling patterns not seen today.
Mid-session Outlook(12-09-2013)
Although most time negative zone trading today but as such selling not seen and some supports also seen at lower levels therefore mixed patterns formations today and yesterday between 5835-5924,follow up moves in the coming hours and finally valid break out of 5835-5924 will be firstly watched now for next immediate moves confirmations.
Post-open Outlook(12-09-2013)
Nifty started to trade in Red immediately after opening today but we told following lines for down moves yesterday in both previous Outlooks:-
1- In Pre-closing Report(11-09-2013):-As more selling formations today therefore correction beginning possibilities turned alive today.
2- In Energence of Correction Possibility:- As more selling seen at higher levels today therefore more possibility of down moves below 5835 in the coming sessions.
Although possibility of down moves below 5835 was also told but follow up selling is also must therefore firstly Follow up technical positions formations in the coming hours and finally valid break out of 5835-5924 should be watched in the coming sessions for next immediate moves confirmations because minor support also seen at lower levels today.
1- In Pre-closing Report(11-09-2013):-As more selling formations today therefore correction beginning possibilities turned alive today.
2- In Energence of Correction Possibility:- As more selling seen at higher levels today therefore more possibility of down moves below 5835 in the coming sessions.
Although possibility of down moves below 5835 was also told but follow up selling is also must therefore firstly Follow up technical positions formations in the coming hours and finally valid break out of 5835-5924 should be watched in the coming sessions for next immediate moves confirmations because minor support also seen at lower levels today.
Emergence of Correction Possibility
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(12-09-2013)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (11-Sep-2013):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Selling between 5878-5924
2- Support between 5835-5860
3- Whole day actual trading between 5835-5924
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Range bound trading today between 5835-5924 with higher levels selling and lower levels supports therefore possibility of firstly trading between today trading range(5835-5924) but more selling seen therefore emergence of correction beginning possibilities turned alive today. As selling is not sufficient today therefore more selling is required because complete selling is required for decisive down moves after 805 points strong rally in last 10 sessions.
Follow up moves near about today trading range and finally sustaining beyond 5835-5924 should be watched in the coming sessions for next immediate moves confirmations. As more selling seen at higher levels today therefore more possibility of down moves below 5835 in the coming sessions.
Pre-closing Report(11-09-2013)
Range bound trading today between 5836-5924 with selling indications but not sufficient and more selling is required because complete selling is required for decisive down moves after 794 points strong rally in 9 sessions. Nifty is trading near the higher levels of today and some supports also seen at higher levels therefore firstly sustaining beyond 5836-5924 should be watched for next immediate moves confirmations. As more selling formations today therefore correction beginning possibilities turned alive today.
Mid-session Outlook(11-09-2013)
Nifty forcefully crossed Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 5731) yesterday and most time negative zone trading today after 594 points rally in 5 sessions therefore today trading will be understood only technical correction. As indicators are overbought therefore 1/2 sessions intraday correction is very much possible and being seen today but It is confirm that complete selling patterns are required for sustaining below 5731.
Nifty traded 3%(5902) above of 200 Day EMA(today at 5731) which is confirmation level of Long Term Trend turning up and firstly sustaining beyond 5902 should be watched in the coming 2/3 sessions for:-
1- 100% Confirmaton of all trends turning up above 5902 or
2- 1st Indication of again decisive down moves below 5902 but confirmation will be after sustaining below 5731.
Nifty traded 3%(5902) above of 200 Day EMA(today at 5731) which is confirmation level of Long Term Trend turning up and firstly sustaining beyond 5902 should be watched in the coming 2/3 sessions for:-
1- 100% Confirmaton of all trends turning up above 5902 or
2- 1st Indication of again decisive down moves below 5902 but confirmation will be after sustaining below 5731.
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(06-09-2013)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (05-Sep-2013):-
Just click on chart for its enlarged view
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Bullish Falling Channel formations
2- Whole day actual trading between 5554-5611
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Whole day trading at more than 2% upward levels with Bullish Falling Channel formations therefore technically signal of up moves continuation. As such higher levels trading were on the back of most Bullish and much awaited Pension Bill passing news therefore next trend confirmations is also required through sustaining beyond 5554-5611 because Nifty traded whole day within this range today amid Bullish sentiments.
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Bullish Falling Channel formations
2- Whole day actual trading between 5554-5611
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Whole day trading at more than 2% upward levels with Bullish Falling Channel formations therefore technically signal of up moves continuation. As such higher levels trading were on the back of most Bullish and much awaited Pension Bill passing news therefore next trend confirmations is also required through sustaining beyond 5554-5611 because Nifty traded whole day within this range today amid Bullish sentiments.
Post-open Outlook(05-09-2013)
As much awaited Pension Bill passed in Lok Sabha yesterday therefore huge gap up opening and slipping below next trend decider 5605 after high formation at 5625.75. Most fluctuating news led highly volatile all Global financial markets nowadays and sustaining beyond 5605 should be firstly watched now for Intermediate Term Trend turning up confirmations.
Next Trend decider at 5605 after passing of Pension Bill in Lok Sabha
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (04-Sep-2013):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Consolidation between 5376-5420
3- Whole day actual trading between 5376-5460
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Good consolidation at lower levels of the day and closing near the highs of the day after strong opening yesterday therefore positive market is expected today. It should be kept in mind that all the financial markets are highly volatile nowadays due to uncertainty on Syria issue. Its few examples are as follows:-
1- Gold increased Rs 1800/- on 2nd and 3rd Sep but down Rs 1803/- yesterday.
2- Gold increased almost Rs 4000/- on 2nd and 3rd Sep but down Rs 4120/- yesterday.
3- Crude increased Rs 490/- on 2nd and 3rd Sep but down Rs 366/- yesterday.
4- Copper increased Rs 25/- on 2nd and 3rd Sep but down Rs25.95/- yesterday.
5- Nickel increased Rs 30/- on 2nd and 3rd Sep but down Rs36.20 yesterday.
6- Aluminium increased Rs 4.95 on 2nd and 3rd Sep but down Rs6.25 yesterday.
7- USDINR increased Rs 2.05 on 2nd and 3rd Sep but down Rs .60 yesterday after slipping Rs 1.50 from intraday higher levels.
As Global and local news led high volatility therefore cautious view is required.
Most Asian markets are trading with good gains after positive closing in US markets yesterday therefore sentiment boosted today morning and gap up opening will be seen in Indian markets. As Land Acquisition Bill passed in Rajya sabha and Lok Sabha clears pension bill(foreign investors can hold 26% stake) yesterday therefore sentiment is most strong in Indian markets and expected that good gains will be seen in Indian markets. Next Resistances are as follows:-
1- 5490-5528
2- 5530-5605
As most Bullish sentiment because Congress and BJP joined hands to pass much awaited Pension Bill in Lok Sabha therefore now sustaining beyond 5605 should be watched in the coming sessions for next big trend confirmations.
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