Strong global cues led gap up opening and most time trading within last 2 sessions trading range(5535-5575). Although first 2 minutes trading above 5575 today but its break out confirmation is required and that is must because today positive trading is only Global markets reaction.
ॐ ह्रीं श्रीं लक्ष्मीभयो नमः॥
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(09-04-2013)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Apr 05 & Apr 08,2013):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in last 2 Sessions intraday charts
1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel on 05-04-2013
2- Support at lower levels between 5535-5546 in both sessions.
3- Selling Patterns between 5551-5560 on 08-04-2013
4- 2 Sessions actual trading between 5535-5575
Following Crucial levels have been broken down:-
1- 5629.95(Top of Wave 1)
2- 5669(200 Day EMA on 08-04-2012)
3- 5643(200 Day DMA at 08-04-2012)
4- 5548.35(Strong support because Wave v begun from this levels after almost 2 months range bound consolidations)
Only breaking down confirmations of above levels is left and that will be through valid break out of last 2 sessions 40 points narrow trading range(5535-5575) for following big moves:-
1- Below 5535 will mean crashing like situation in Indian markets and testing of unbelievable lower levels.
2- Above 5575 will mean Wave 5 beginning to form new highs above 6111 but after sustaining above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(5669)
As last 2 sessions trading with mixed intraday patterns formations between 5535-5575 therefore valid break out of this range must be firstly watched for above mentioned next trend confirmations.
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel on 05-04-2013
2- Support at lower levels between 5535-5546 in both sessions.
3- Selling Patterns between 5551-5560 on 08-04-2013
4- 2 Sessions actual trading between 5535-5575
Conclusions from 2 Sessions intra day chart analysis
Following Crucial levels have been broken down:-
1- 5629.95(Top of Wave 1)
2- 5669(200 Day EMA on 08-04-2012)
3- 5643(200 Day DMA at 08-04-2012)
4- 5548.35(Strong support because Wave v begun from this levels after almost 2 months range bound consolidations)
Only breaking down confirmations of above levels is left and that will be through valid break out of last 2 sessions 40 points narrow trading range(5535-5575) for following big moves:-
1- Below 5535 will mean crashing like situation in Indian markets and testing of unbelievable lower levels.
2- Above 5575 will mean Wave 5 beginning to form new highs above 6111 but after sustaining above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(5669)
As last 2 sessions trading with mixed intraday patterns formations between 5535-5575 therefore valid break out of this range must be firstly watched for above mentioned next trend confirmations.
FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 08-Apr-2013
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Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 09-04-2013
Nifty Spot-Levels
R3 5593
R2 5581
R1 5561
Avg 5549
S1 5529
S2 5517
S3 5497
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 5574 Trgt 2
H5 5566 Trgt 1
H4 5559 Long breakout
H3 5550 Go Short
H2 5547
H1 5544
L1 5539
L2 5536
L3 5533 Long
L4 5524 Short Breakout
L5 5517 Trgt 1
L6 5509 Trgt 2
R3 5593
R2 5581
R1 5561
Avg 5549
S1 5529
S2 5517
S3 5497
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 5574 Trgt 2
H5 5566 Trgt 1
H4 5559 Long breakout
H3 5550 Go Short
H2 5547
H1 5544
L1 5539
L2 5536
L3 5533 Long
L4 5524 Short Breakout
L5 5517 Trgt 1
L6 5509 Trgt 2
Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 09-04-2013
Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels
3 5617
R2 5602
R1 5580
Avg 5565
S1 5543
S2 5528
S3 5506
Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 5596 Trgt 2
H5 5587 Trgt 1
H4 5579 Long breakout
H3 5569 Go Short
H2 5565
H1 5562
L1 5555
L2 5552
L3 5548 Long
L4 5538 Short Breakout
L5 5530 Trgt 1
L6 5521 Trgt 2
3 5617
R2 5602
R1 5580
Avg 5565
S1 5543
S2 5528
S3 5506
Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 5596 Trgt 2
H5 5587 Trgt 1
H4 5579 Long breakout
H3 5569 Go Short
H2 5565
H1 5562
L1 5555
L2 5552
L3 5548 Long
L4 5538 Short Breakout
L5 5530 Trgt 1
L6 5521 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 09-04-2013
Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels
R3 11296
R2 11241
R1 11144
Avg 11089
S1 10992
S2 10937
S3 10840
Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 11199 Trgt 2
H5 11164 Trgt 1
H4 11130 Long breakout
H3 11088 Go Short
H2 11074
H1 11060
L1 11033
L2 11019
L3 11005 Long
L4 10963 Short Breakout
L5 10929 Trgt 1
L6 10894 Trgt 2
R3 11296
R2 11241
R1 11144
Avg 11089
S1 10992
S2 10937
S3 10840
Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 11199 Trgt 2
H5 11164 Trgt 1
H4 11130 Long breakout
H3 11088 Go Short
H2 11074
H1 11060
L1 11033
L2 11019
L3 11005 Long
L4 10963 Short Breakout
L5 10929 Trgt 1
L6 10894 Trgt 2
Pre-Closing Outlook(08-04-2013)
2 Sessions trading between 5535-5575 with good consolidations last Friday and today lower levels supports but selling patterns formations at higher levels also seen today therefore View is cautious and valid break out of mentioned trading range should be firstly watched for next decisive moves and Trend confirmation.
Mid-session Outlook-2(08-04-2013)
Quiet market between 5538-5568 with selling indications at higher levels but lower levels good supports also therefore valid break out of mentioned today trading range will be next decisive moves and Trend confirmation.
Mid-session Outlook(08-04-2013)
Although consolidation patterns formations last Friday but selling indications today therefore view is cautious and will be Bullish only after sustaining above those crucial levels which have been updated in previous Outlook.
View is cautious and not Bearish at this moment because only selling indications today.
View is cautious and not Bearish at this moment because only selling indications today.
NIFTY-Apr Call Option(5700)-Buying of 05-04-2013-Covering
NIFTY-Apr CE(5700)-Bought on 05-04-2013-cover immediately-CMP-26(Lalit39)
NIFTY-Apr Call Option(5700)- Buying of 05-04-2013-Message
NIFTY-Apr CE(5700)- Bought on 05-04-2013-Weak Global markets but just hold and cover after my covering message(Lalit39)
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Apr 08 to Apr 12,2013)
Nifty-EOD Chart (05-Apr-2013):- |
| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Wave-3 beginning after 13 Months Wave-2 correction completion)
2- Wave 1(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave 2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Wave 3(6111.80 on 29-01-2013)
5- Wave 4 correction beginning
6- Wave A(5663.60 on 04-03-2012)
7- Wave A retraced 448.20 points.
8- Wave B(5971.20 on 11-03-2012)
9- Wave B gained 307.60 points
7- Wave B(5971.20 on 11-03-2012)
10- Wave C of Wave 4 bottom formation at 5534.70 on 05-04-2012
12- Wave C has retraced 436.50 points yet.
13- Corrective Wave C of Wave 4 continuation.
14- 200 Day EMA at 5670 on 05-04-2012
15- 200 Day DMA at 5641 on 05-04-2012
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (05-Apr-2013):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel.
2- Support between 5535-5545
3- Whole day actual trading between 5535-5575
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
As Per Elliot Wave Theory:-
The bottom of Wave-4 should not dip below the top of Wave 1,at least on a closing basis.
Top of Wave 1 is at 5629.95 and Nifty closed below it in last 2 sessions therefore it means recounting of Waves which started from 4531.15 on 20-12-2011 but as per our view last 2 sessions down closing was due to negative news flow from Global markets therefore breaking down confirmation is required through sustaining below 5629.95. Although Nifty closed below 200 Day EMA and DMA but Long Term Trend turning down confirmation is required yet through sustaining below both mentioned Averages.
Following target with following calculation was told on 26-03-2013 in Long Term Trend is at stake:-
ABC Waves of Wave 4 continuation and Wave A retraced 448.20 points therefore equal 100% retracement of Wave c can not be ruled out. Wave C correction continuation is expectd target is at:-
5971.20(Wave B)-448.20(Wave A lost)=5523.00
As bottom formation at 5534.70 on 05-04-2012 which is near above given target therefore possibility of Wave 4 correction completion is still alive. Previous week down moves were due to weaker Global cues therefore finally sustaining beyond following levels will be next trend confirmations and should be firstly watched in next week:-
1- 5629.95(Top of Wave 1)
2- 5670(200 Day EMA on 05-04-2012)
3- 5641(200 Day DMA at 05-04-2012)
Although negative closing last Friday but consolidation patterns formation through Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel and lower levels supports as well therefore strong indications of up moves in the beginning of next week.
Nifty(Apr Fut)- Intraday Trading levels , Strategy and Targets for 08-04-2013
Buy at or above:-5587
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1st Targets:5603
2nd Targets:5622
3rd Targets:5640
4th Targets:5659
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Stop Loss:5568
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Sell at or below:-5568
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1st Targets:5553
2nd Targets:5534
3rd Targets:5515
4th Targets:5497
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Stop Loss:5587
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Trading guidance:-
1- Trade with Strict Stop Loss
2- Trade along the trend.
3- Cover at any Target or hold for next target with previous target as Stop Loss.
4- May reverse yours trade also according to market with previous level as Stop Loss.
5- Profitable intraday trading strategy in trending and volatile markets.
6- Firstly go through today Outlooks also for better profits and more accuracy.
Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)- Intraday Trading levels,Strategy and Targets for 08-04-2013
Buy at or above:-11156
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1st Targets:11177
2nd Targets:11203
3rd Targets:11230
4th Targets:11256
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Stop Loss:11130
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Sell at or below:-11109
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1st Targets:11130
2nd Targets:11083
3rd Targets:11056
4th Targets:11030
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Stop Loss:11156
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Trading guidance:-
1- Trade with Strict Stop Loss
2- Trade along the trend.
3- Cover at any Target or hold for next target with previous target as Stop Loss.
4- May reverse yours trade also according to market with previous level as Stop Loss.
5- Profitable intraday trading strategy in trending and volatile markets.
FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 05-Apr-2013
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Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(05-Apr-2013)
Main features of trading are as follows
Ratios
Index Options Put Call Ratio: 0.92
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.90
Nifty P/E Ratio(05-Apr-2013): 16.82
Advances & Declines
BSE Advances : 1,408
BSE Declines : 1,343
NSE Advances : 740
NSE Declines : 773
Nifty Open Interest Changed Today
Nifty- 5500 CE(Apr)- 513,400(42.79%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(Apr)- 10,300(0.19%)
Nifty- 5600 CE(Apr)- 1,127,900(29.26%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Apr)- -1,236,900(-17.57%)
Nifty- 5700 CE(Apr)- 1,012,550(14.38%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Apr)- -609,300(-14.17%)
Nifty- 5800 CE(Apr)- 870,750(12.55%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Apr)- -101,100(-5.93%)
Nifty- 5900 CE(Apr)- 489,300(8.00%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(Apr)- -80,500(-8.28%)
Closing
Sensex- closed at 18,450.23(-59.47 Points & -0.32%)
Nifty- closed at 5,553.25(-21.50 Points & -0.39%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,422.75(20.05 Points & 0.27%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,176.65(3.75 Points & 0.12%)
Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 08-04-2013
Nifty Spot-Levels
R3 5618
R2 5597
R1 5575
Avg 5554
S1 5532
S2 5511
S3 5489
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 5596 Trgt 2
H5 5586 Trgt 1
H4 5576 Long breakout
H3 5564 Go Short
H2 5560
H1 5556
L1 5549
L2 5545
L3 5541 Long
L4 5529 Short Breakout
L5 5519 Trgt 1
L6 5509 Trgt 2
R3 5618
R2 5597
R1 5575
Avg 5554
S1 5532
S2 5511
S3 5489
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 5596 Trgt 2
H5 5586 Trgt 1
H4 5576 Long breakout
H3 5564 Go Short
H2 5560
H1 5556
L1 5549
L2 5545
L3 5541 Long
L4 5529 Short Breakout
L5 5519 Trgt 1
L6 5509 Trgt 2
Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 08-04-2013
Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels
R3 5635
R2 5614
R1 5593
Avg 5572
S1 5551
S2 5530
S3 5509
Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 5614 Trgt 2
H5 5604 Trgt 1
H4 5595 Long breakout
H3 5583 Go Short
H2 5579
H1 5575
L1 5568
L2 5564
L3 5560 Long
L4 5548 Short Breakout
L5 5539 Trgt 1
L6 5529 Trgt 2
R3 5635
R2 5614
R1 5593
Avg 5572
S1 5551
S2 5530
S3 5509
Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 5614 Trgt 2
H5 5604 Trgt 1
H4 5595 Long breakout
H3 5583 Go Short
H2 5579
H1 5575
L1 5568
L2 5564
L3 5560 Long
L4 5548 Short Breakout
L5 5539 Trgt 1
L6 5529 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 08-04-2013
Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Levels
R3 11373
R2 11296
R1 11219
Avg 11142
S1 11065
S2 10988
S3 10911
Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 11297 Trgt 2
H5 11261 Trgt 1
H4 11226 Long breakout
H3 11184 Go Short
H2 11170
H1 11156
L1 11127
L2 11113
L3 11099 Long
L4 11057 Short Breakout
L5 11022 Trgt 1
L6 10986 Trgt 2
R3 11373
R2 11296
R1 11219
Avg 11142
S1 11065
S2 10988
S3 10911
Bank Nifty(Apr Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 11297 Trgt 2
H5 11261 Trgt 1
H4 11226 Long breakout
H3 11184 Go Short
H2 11170
H1 11156
L1 11127
L2 11113
L3 11099 Long
L4 11057 Short Breakout
L5 11022 Trgt 1
L6 10986 Trgt 2
Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Apr 08 to Apr 12,2013)
Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels
R3 5915
R2 5835
R1 5694
Avg 5614
S1 5473
S2 5393
S3 5252
Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy
H6 4577 Trgt 2
H5 5724 Trgt 1
H4 5674 Long breakout
H3 5613 Go Short
H2 5593
H1 5573
L1 5532
L2 5512
L3 5492 Long
L4 5431 Short Breakout
L5 5381 Trgt 1
L6 5331 Trgt 2
R3 5915
R2 5835
R1 5694
Avg 5614
S1 5473
S2 5393
S3 5252
Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy
H6 4577 Trgt 2
H5 5724 Trgt 1
H4 5674 Long breakout
H3 5613 Go Short
H2 5593
H1 5573
L1 5532
L2 5512
L3 5492 Long
L4 5431 Short Breakout
L5 5381 Trgt 1
L6 5331 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Apr 08 to Apr 12,2013)
Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels
R3 12022
R2 11806
R1 11452
Avg 11236
S1 10882
S2 10666
S3 10312
Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy
H6 11671 Trgt 2
H5 11541 Trgt 1
H4 11411 Long breakout
H3 11254 Go Short
H2 11202
H1 11150
L1 11045
L2 10993
L3 10941 Long
L4 10784 Short Breakout
L5 10654 Trgt 1
L6 10524 Trgt 2
R3 12022
R2 11806
R1 11452
Avg 11236
S1 10882
S2 10666
S3 10312
Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy
H6 11671 Trgt 2
H5 11541 Trgt 1
H4 11411 Long breakout
H3 11254 Go Short
H2 11202
H1 11150
L1 11045
L2 10993
L3 10941 Long
L4 10784 Short Breakout
L5 10654 Trgt 1
L6 10524 Trgt 2
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