Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 17-05-2012

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 9397
R2 9290
R1 9199
Avg 9092
S1 9001
S2 8894
S3 8803

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9308     Trgt 2
H5 9262     Trgt 1
H4 9216     Long breakout
H3 9162     Go Short
H2 9144
H1 9126
L1 9089
L2 9071
L3 9053     Long
L4 8999     Short Breakout
L5 8953     Trgt 1
L6 8907     Trgt 2

Mid-session Outlook(16-05-2012)

Nowadays complete manipulation through US futures. Yesterday Indian markets surged from intraday lower levels on the back of Dow'Futures more than 90 points up moves during Indian markets trading time but Dow Jones closed 63.35 down yesterday.

Indian markets complete reaction on Dow'Futures was updated yesterday in Pre-Closing Outlook(15-05-2012)  

Intraday selling was done yesterday through manipulated up moves in Us Futures and today gap down after most depressed global cues. All trends are down and all the patterns,strong supports and crucial levels have been broken down in on going correction.

Intraday trading within 4838-4881 with falling channel formation and its upward break out also seen today. Although falling channel and its upward break out is Bullish formations but sustaining above today trading range is must for Pull Back rally confirmations.

Pre-open Outlook(16-05-2012)

All the Asian markets are in down and Following Indices are in deep Red:-

1- HANG SENG INDEX- 508.40 (2.56%) Points down
2- Nikkei 225-  79.95 (0.90%) Points down
3- KOSPI Composite Index-  27.60 (1.45%) Points down
4- Singapur STI- 30.56 (1.06%) Points down
5- Taiwan Weighted-  63.12 (0.85%) Points down

Correction is on in Indian markets and after depressed sentiment negative zone trading will be seen weak opening.

Pre-Closing Outlook(15-05-2012)

Firstly intraday supports at lower levels and after that up moves to 4955 on the back of positive European markets and Dow'Futures more than 90 points up. As Dow'Futures slipped to +45 points and all the European markets moved down as well as traded flat therefore Nifty also moved down to 4919. Up moves repeation again in Dow'Futures and European markets therefore Indian markets also surged now.

Lower levels supports and today intraday patterns are showing consolidation formations therefore Pull Back rally possibility turning high now. As multiple resistances at higher level therefore consolidation is required at each step before any up move.

Sustaining above 5036 will be Pull Back Rally confirmation after lower levels supports and should be firstly watched.

Mid-session Outlook(15-05-2012)

Confirm intraday support at lower levels between 4896-4915 today but strong resistances at higher levels therefore consolidation is required before any up moves.

Sustaining above 5036 will be Pull Back Rally confirmation after lower levels supports and should be firstly watched.

Post-open Outlook(15-05-2012)

Crashing global markets reaction through weak opening but immediate recovery in first minute and trading near 4908. Intraday support seen below 4908 yesterday and hovering it around today despite depressing global markets.

Sustaining beyond 4908 should be firstly watched for next trend first signal.

Next moves generation through sustaining beyond 4908

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 15-05-2012

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (14-May-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 4945-4955
2- Support between 4877-4900 in last 3 hours.
3- Falling Channel formations with its break out in last 3 hours.
3- Whole day trading between 4877-4955.

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told in "Bull-Bear Match Final confirmation through Most Crucial 4908-4938" on 12-May-2012:-

"Bull-Bear Match Final confirmation will be through Most Crucial 4908-4938.Sustaining below 4908 will be Bear markets confirmation and sustaining above 4938 will be survival of up moves expectations"

Today closing is at 4907.80 and Bear markets confirmation is left through sustaining below 4908. 

Although markets slipped after Inflation upward data in March 2012 but could not crash after Dow' Futures is more than 100 points down and most of the European markets are 2% or more down trading. On the other hand Nifty got support also in last more than 3 hours supports between 4877-4900 and Falling Channel formations with its break out in last 3 hours.

As most of the oscillators in EOD charts are oversold therefore Pull Back rally may be seen any day and its its possibility is alive today after last 2 sessions supports at lower levels. All the trends are down and continuation of correction therefore more down moves possibilities can not be ruled out and following levels should be watched for next moves confirmations:-

1- Sustaining beyond 4908 because last 2 sessions supports below and above it.
2- Sustaining below 4877 will be sharp declines confirmations.
3- Sustaining above 5036 will be Pull Back Rally confirmation.

Firstly sustaining beyond 4908 should be watched for next moves confirmations with keeping in mind above mentioned possibilities. 

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 14-May-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 14-May-2012 2080.58 1725.48 355.1

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 14-May-2012 850.14 995.19 -145.05

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(14-May-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed in Red.
2- Most Indices closed with minor gains or loss after intraday support at lower levels.
3- Black Candle formation.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.03
Nifty P/E Ratio(14-May-2012): 16.95

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1044
BSE Declines : 1668
NSE Advances :  433
NSE Declines :  990

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4800 CE(May)- +239150(+30.81%)
Nifty- 4800 PE(May)- +485900(+7.47%)

Nifty- 4900 CE(May)- +452600(+16.37%)
Nifty- 4900 PE(May)- +245200(+3.60%)

Nifty- 5000 CE(May)- +588750(+13.19%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(May)- -150000(-2.79%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(May)- +288300(+5.26%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(May)- +231850(+6.45%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 4,907.80(-21.10 Points & -0.43%)
Sensex- closed at 16,215.84(-77.14 Points & -0.47% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 6,922.65(-63.10 Points & -0.90%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,314.57(-80.81 Points & -1.26%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 15-05-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5034
R2 4995
R1 4951
Avg 4912
S1 4868
S2 4829
S3 4785

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 4990     Trgt 2
H5 4971     Trgt 1
H4 4952     Long breakout
H3 4929     Go Short
H2 4922
H1 4914
L1 4899
L2 4891
L3 4884     Long
L4 4861     Short Breakout
L5 4842     Trgt 1
L6 4823     Trgt 2

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 15-05-2012

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 5022
R2 4986
R1 4937
Avg 4901
S1 4852
S2 4816
S3 4767

Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 4973     Trgt 2
H5 4954     Trgt 1
H4 4934     Long breakout
H3 4911     Go Short
H2 4903
H1 4895
L1 4880
L2 4872
L3 4864     Long
L4 4841     Short Breakout
L5 4821     Trgt 1
L6 4802     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 15-05-2012

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 9692
R2 9571
R1 9374
Avg 9253
S1 9056
S2 8935
S3 8738

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9497     Trgt 2
H5 9425     Trgt 1
H4 9352     Long breakout
H3 9265     Go Short
H2 9236
H1 9207
L1 9148
L2 9119
L3 9090     Long
L4 9003     Short Breakout
L5 8930     Trgt 1
L6 8858     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(14-05-2012)

Dow' Futures is more than 100 points down and most of the European markets are 2% or more down but Indian markets are less than 1% down today. Correction is on and selling seen at higher levels between 4945-4955 today but supports also seen at lower levels today despite surge in Monthly Inflation and above mentioned negative Global markets moves also. 

Nifty got supports at lower levels 0n 11-05-2012 and today therefore sustaining below today lower levels will be firstly watched for any down move confirmations.

NSE Systems Technical Fault

Nifty Futures rates are not updating from 01:36 PM today.

Mid-session Outlook-3(14-05-2012)

April inflation at 7.23% vs 6.89% in March

Inflation upward trend triggered down moves in Indian markets and Nifty slipped below 4908. As intraday selling formation confirmation between 4945-4955 therefore sustaining below 4908 will mean crashing like situation possibility.

Mid-session Outlook-2(14-05-2012)

Intraday selling confirmation between 4945-4955 today.

Mid-session Outlook(14-05-2012)

Technical positions of 11-05-2012 are as follows:-

1- Supports between 4908-4938
2- Selling between 4955-4975

Today first 2 hours trading range is 4937-4954 and it will be clear from intraday charts that it is least trading zone of 11-05-2012. Market is firstly preparing for next moves within 4937-4954 and sustaining beyond 4908-4975 will be result of positions formation firstly within 4937-4954 and afteward within 4908-4975. 

Next trend confirmation will be sustaining beyond 4908-4975 and should be firstly watched.  

Bull-Bear Match Final confirmation through Most Crucial 4908-4938

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(May 14 to May 18,2012)

Nifty-EOD Chart (11-May-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 5629.95 on 22-02-2012.
2- Corrective Wave-2 continuation. 
3- 55 Sessions correction in Falling Channel(Bullish Flag Formation)
4- Breaking down of Long Term Trend Decider 200-Day SMA.
5- Four days closing below 200-Day SMA. 
6- Breaking down of Falling Channel.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Impulsive Wave-1  rally started on 20-12-2011 after 13 months correction from 4531.15 and after  1098.80 Nifty Points rally its Corrective Wave-2 begun from 5629.95 on 22-02-2012. Correction is continued and its new low was formed at 4906.15 on 11-05-2012. Next supports of this rally are as follows:- 

1- 4810-4900
2- 4635-4663
3- 4602-4624
4- 4560-4590 

Fibonacci Retracement Levels of previous rally(4531-5629) are as follows:-

13.0%- 5486(Tested)
23.6%- 5369(Tested)
27.0%- 5332(Tested)
38.2%- 5209(Tested)
50.0%- 5080(Tested)
61.8%- 4950(Tested)
70.7%- 4852
76.4%- 4790
78.6%- 4765
88.6%- 4656

correction is continued and almost confirmation of Long Term trend turning down after 4 consecutive closing below 200-Day SMA as well as strong indicatons of entering into Bear markets. As most of the oscillators in EOD charts are oversold therefore Pull Back rally may be seen any day but until Nifty will not sustain above 200-Day SMA till then Bullish markets can not be considered.

Nifty traded most of the time and closed below 61.8%  retracement level(4950) on 11-05-2012 with intraday supports between 4908-4938 and firstly survival of this support range should be watched in the beginning of next week,its breaking down will mean testing of above mentioned supports and sustaining above 4938 will mean first and foremost requirement of complete consolidations for any decisive up moves because Nifty has to counter following resistances of on going 55 sessions correction:-

1- Resistance between 4995-5035
2- Resistance between 5070-5125
3- Resistance between 5190-5305
4- Resistance between 5318-5337
5- Resistance between 5357-5377
6- Resistance between 5418-5487
7- Resistance between 5588-5625

Latest support between 4908-4938 ia most crucial because markets got support between this range after most depressing negative IIp data therefore sustaining it beyond should be firstly watched in the beginning of next week. 

Bull-Bear Match Final confirmation will be through Most Crucial 4908-4938.Sustaining below 4908 will be Bear markets confirmation and sustaining above 4938 will be survival of up moves expectations.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 11-May-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 11-May-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 11-May-2012 1525.07 1366.51 158.56

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 11-May-2012 813.02 1056.31 -243.29

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(11-May-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed in Red.
2- Doji Candle Formation.
3- Sharp fall after negative IIP numbers but intraday support above 4900 and volatile market during last 3 hours.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.03
Nifty P/E Ratio(11-May-2012): 16.87

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances :  919
BSE Declines : 1852
NSE Advances :  426
NSE Declines : 1008

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4700 CE(May)- +11600(+7.22%)
Nifty- 4700 PE(May)- +494700(+12.41%)

Nifty- 4800 CE(May)- +94900(+13.93%)
Nifty- 4800 PE(May)- +903450(+16.13%)

Nifty- 4900 CE(May)- +1387100(+100.71%)
Nifty- 4900 PE(May)- +207400(+2.94%)

Nifty- 5000 CE(May)- +77500(+1.77%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(May)- -448450(-7.70%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(May)- +590900(+12.08%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(May)- -422850(-10.53%)

Nifty- 5200 CE(May)- +383450(+5.56%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(May)- -116700(+-5.71%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 4,928.90(-36.80 Points & -0.74%)
Sensex- closed at 16,292.98(-127.07 Points & -0.77% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 6,985.75(-77.55 Points & -1.10%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,395.38(-58.82 Points & -0.91%)