Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(May 14 to May 18,2012)
Nifty-EOD Chart (11-May-2012):-
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1- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 5629.95 on 22-02-2012.
2- Corrective Wave-2 continuation.
3- 55 Sessions correction in Falling Channel(Bullish Flag Formation)
4- Breaking down of Long Term Trend Decider 200-Day SMA.
5- Four days closing below 200-Day SMA.
6- Breaking down of Falling Channel.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Impulsive Wave-1 rally started on 20-12-2011 after 13 months correction from 4531.15 and after 1098.80 Nifty Points rally its Corrective Wave-2 begun from 5629.95 on 22-02-2012. Correction is continued and its new low was formed at 4906.15 on 11-05-2012. Next supports of this rally are as follows:-
1- 4810-4900
2- 4635-4663
3- 4602-4624
4- 4560-4590
Fibonacci Retracement Levels of previous rally(4531-5629) are as follows:-
13.0%- 5486(Tested)
23.6%- 5369(Tested)
27.0%- 5332(Tested)
38.2%- 5209(Tested)
50.0%- 5080(Tested)
61.8%- 4950(Tested)
70.7%- 4852
76.4%- 4790
78.6%- 4765
88.6%- 4656
correction is continued and almost confirmation of Long Term trend turning down after 4 consecutive closing below 200-Day SMA as well as strong indicatons of entering into Bear markets. As most of the oscillators in EOD charts are oversold therefore Pull Back rally may be seen any day but until Nifty will not sustain above 200-Day SMA till then Bullish markets can not be considered.
Nifty traded most of the time and closed below 61.8% retracement level(4950) on 11-05-2012 with intraday supports between 4908-4938 and firstly survival of this support range should be watched in the beginning of next week,its breaking down will mean testing of above mentioned supports and sustaining above 4938 will mean first and foremost requirement of complete consolidations for any decisive up moves because Nifty has to counter following resistances of on going 55 sessions correction:-
1- Resistance between 4995-5035
2- Resistance between 5070-5125
3- Resistance between 5190-5305
4- Resistance between 5318-5337
5- Resistance between 5357-5377
6- Resistance between 5418-5487
7- Resistance between 5588-5625
Latest support between 4908-4938 ia most crucial because markets got support between this range after most depressing negative IIp data therefore sustaining it beyond should be firstly watched in the beginning of next week.
Bull-Bear Match Final confirmation will be through Most Crucial 4908-4938.Sustaining below 4908 will be Bear markets confirmation and sustaining above 4938 will be survival of up moves expectations.