Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 07-03-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5510
R2 5446
R1 5334
Avg 5270
S1 5158
S2 5094
S3 4982

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5398      Trgt 2
H5 5358     Trgt 1
H4 5318    Long breakout
H3 5270     Go Short
H2 5254
H1 5238
L1 5205
L2 5189
L3 5173    Long
L4 5125     Short Breakout
L5 5085     Trgt 1
L6 5045     Trgt 2

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 07-03-2012

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels

R3 5570
R2 5499
R1 5374
Avg 5303
S1 5178
S2 5107
S3 4982

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5446     Trgt 2
H5 5402     Trgt 1
H4 5357    Long breakout
H3 5303     Go Short
H2 5285
H1 5267
L1 5232
L2 5214
L3 5196    Long
L4 5142     Short Breakout
L5 5097     Trgt 1
L6 5053     Trgt 2                                                                                                                                                                     

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 07-03-2012

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels

R3 10881
R2 10706
R1 10410
Avg 10235
S1 9939
S2 9764
S3 9468

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 10587     Trgt 2
H5 10480     Trgt 1
H4 10373    Long breakout
H3 10243     Go Short
H2 10200
H1 10157
L1 10070
L2 10027
L3  9984    Long
L4  9854   Short Breakout
L5  9747    Trgt 1
L6  9640    Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(06-03-2012)

Today intraday moves were according to Congress expectations during Assembly Elections results day. When intial results trend indicated gains for Congress then up moves were seen but as soon as results confirmed the defeat of Congress then markets started to tumble down and Market is more than 1% down.

5267-5322 has been broken down and Intermediate term trend turning down confirmations also therefore more down moves are expected. As down moves possibility was alive therefore following topic was updated on 03-03-2012:-

Crucial Supports in Assembly Election Results Week

Just click above topic Link and understand all the crucial support levels.

Mid-session Outlook(06-03-2012)

Highly volatile markets during Assembly Election Results day,Nifty is trading between yesterday trading range(5267-5322) at this moment and importance of this range have already been discussed in previous outlook.

It was expected that on going correction will complete now fresh up moves will start after correction completion and increase in Congress strength but market could not sustain at higher levels after confirmation of Punjab defeat and no role in U.P. Govt. formations.

Tough to understand the change of Technical positions during such high volatility therefore next moves and fate of Intermediate term trend will get confirmations through:-

1- Sustaining beyond yesterday trading range(5267-5322) for first indication.
2- Sustaining beyond intermediate term trend decider 5340 for final confirmations.

Live Proofs of our 100% accurate projections and Guidance during Assembly results

Post-open Outlook(06-03-2012)

Indian markets more than 1.00% down immediately after opening today and then more than 1 % up within first half hour today and proved ours following projections 100% accurate:-

In Pre-Closing Outlook(05-03-2012) at 02:59PM yesterday:-

A- strong indication of intermediate term trend turning down and high possibility of more down moves to text next support levels.
B-Indian markets are prepared for more down moves in the coming sessions.

2- In Technical and Assembly results implications Analysis yesterday

A- Technically Intermediate term trend turning down strong indication
B- technically high possibility of more down moves to test next support levels in the coming sessions
C- Indian markets are technically prepared for more down moves in the coming sessions.

High volatility today but we told following lines yesterday;-

1- Assembly results uncertainty led volatility can not be ruled out tomorrow
2- in such situations technical positins reverses also therefore sustaining beyond today trading range(5267-5322) should be firstly watched for next moves confirmations.
3- Indian markets will only be effected by Congress conclusive gains/loss and change of dependence on other parties.

Highly Volatile market today and technical positins reverses also in such situations therefore following levels should be firstly watched:-

1- Sustaining beyond yesterday trading range(5267-5322) for first indication.
2- Sustaining beyond intermediate term trend decider 5340

Long term trend is up Short term trend is down and correction completion/continuation through survival of intermediate term trend will be decided through sustaining beyond above levels and should be firstly watched.

Expected that no fresh up moves will start after correction completion  today.

Technical and Assembly results implications Analysis For 06-03-2012

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(05-Mar-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5305-5322
2- Minor intraday support between 5267-5280
3- Whole day trading between 5267-5322

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Technically Intermediate term trend turning down strong indication through:-

Continuous Whole day down moves below intermediate term trend decider 5340 today with intraday selling patterns immediately after opening between 5305-5322 today

Although minor intraday support between 5267-5280 today but good selling at higher levels therefore technically high possibility of more down moves to test next support levels in the coming sessions. As down moves possibility was alive therefore following topic was updated on 03-03-2012:-

Crucial Supports in Assembly Election Results Week

Just click above topic link and prepare for trading after understanding all crucial levels

Assembly results Uncertainity led volatility can not be ruled out tomorrow and in such situations technical positins reverses also therefore sustaining beyond today trading range(5267-5322) should be firstly watched for next moves confirmations.

Indian markets will only be effected by Congress conclusive gains/loss and change of dependence on other parties. As it may trigger next trend also therefore implications of Assembly results should be understood under this purview also because it may also give final confirmation to the 7 sessions struggling Intermediate term trend.

If anything miraculous come out from Assembly results tomorrow then any up moves will be expected otherwise Indian markets are technically prepared for more down moves in the coming sessions.

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 05-Mar-2012

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(05-Mar-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Long Black Candle.
2- All the Indices closed in Red except FMCG.
3- whole day down moves after weak opening.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.95
Nifty P/E Ratio(05-Mar-2012): 18.71

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances :  952
BSE Declines : 1899
NSE Advances :  412
NSE Declines : 1044

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5200 CE(Mar)- +381950(+18.28%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(Mar)- +996150(+13.41%)

Nifty- 5300 CE(Mar)- +807100(+39.52%)
Nifty- 5300 PE(Mar)- +348750(+5.30%)

Nifty- 5400 CE(Mar)- +488900(+15.30%)
Nifty- 5400 PE(Mar)- +175650(+4.78%)

Nifty- 5500 CE(Mar)- +440200(+10.34%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(Mar)- -13900(-0.46%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,280.35(-79.05 Points & -1.47%)
Sensex- closed at 17,362.87(-274.12 Points & -1.55% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,529.50(-125.95 Points & -1.65%)
BSE Smallcap- closed at 6,787.70(-65.39 Points & -0.95%)

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 05-Mar-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 05-Mar-2012 1867.04 1741.54 125.5

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 05-Mar-2012 827.42 1085.75 -258.33

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 06-03-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5406
R2 5375
R1 5327
Avg 5296
S1 5248
S2 5217
S3 5169

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5359     Trgt 2
H5 5341     Trgt 1
H4 5323     Long breakout
H3 5301     Go Short
H2 5294
H1 5287
L1 5272
L2 5265
L3 5258     Long
L4 5236     Short Breakout
L5 5218     Trgt 1
L6 5200     Trgt 2

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 06-03-2012

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels

R3 5447
R2 5412
R1 5365
Avg 5330
S1 5283
S2 5248
S3 5201

Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5400     Trgt 2
H5 5381     Trgt 1
H4 5363     Long breakout
H3 5340     Go Short
H2 5333
H1 5325
L1 5310
L2 5302
L3 5295    Long
L4 5272     Short Breakout
L5 5254     Trgt 1
L6 5235     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 06-03-2012

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels

R3 10717
R2 10605
R1 10423
Avg 10311
S1 10129
S2 10017
S3 9835

Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 10536     Trgt 2
H5 10469     Trgt 1
H4 10402     Long breakout
H3 10321     Go Short
H2 10294
H1 10267
L1 10214
L2 10187
L3 10160     Long
L4 10079     Short Breakout
L5 10012     Trgt 1
L6  9945    Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(05-03-2012)

Whole day trading below intermediate term trend decider 5340 today with intraday selling patterns today means strong indication of intermediate term trend turning down and high possibility of more down moves to text next support levels.

If anything miraculous come out from tomorrow Assembly results then expect any up move otherwise Indian markets are prepared for more down moves in the coming sessions.

Mid-session Outlook(05-03-2012)

Intraday selling patterns between 5305-5322 today. 

Post-open Outlook(05-03-2012)

All Asian markrets are in Red and some are more than 1% down therefore Red zone trading after weak opening today. Assembly results season today because market is reacting exit poll results today and tomorrow will react on achual results therefore volatility may be high and sustaining it beyond 5298 should be firstly watched for next decisive big move confirmations.

Finally Rally above 5458 after Volatility

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook 

(Mar 05 to Mar 09,2012)

Technical Analysis and Research of EOD,weekly and Monthly charts,Micro Analysis of Nifty Intra Day Chart,Technical Positions,next possibilities have already been explained in following topics with 5 Charts therefore not being repeated. Just click following topic links and go through detailed analysis for trading in next week:-

1- Blasing Rally above 5458
2- Crucial Supports in Assembly Election Results Week
3- For Decisive Break out more Preparation within 5298-5458
4- Correction Fate Decider 5340-5415

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Long term trend is up,Short term trend is down and fate of next long term moves deciding Intermediate term trend was sideways between 5268-5458 in previous week. All the possibilities regarding break out side direction and supports/resistances have already been discussed in above topics.

It is clear from previous week intraday charts analysis that good supporta at lower levels. Although selling at higher levels but intraday patterns of previous week are suggesting consolidation formations therefore breaking out and sustaining above 5458 is high.

Assembly election results will be declared on 06-03-2012 as well as negative results for Congress will certainly badly hamper sentiment therefore coming sessions may be highly volatile also but until Nifty will not sustain below 5268 till then any decisive down move will not be considered.

Expected that Nifty will not sustain below 5120 and Long term trend will not turn down in worst sentiments also but on the other hand very much expected also that Nifty will not sustain below 5268 and finally rally above 5458 will be seen in the coming week/weeks

Blasting Rally above 5458

It is clear from both previous topics that Indian markets are technically not prepared for any side decisive break out and weekly closing in the center of previous week range after both selling at higher levels and buying at lower levels. Indian markets will prepare in the coming 1/2 sessions for next moves and follow up buying/selling will trigger break out/down.

Rally begun on 20-12-2011 from 4531.15 and correction started from 5629.95 after 1098.80 Nifty Points rally in 45 sessions. Immediate technical positions of this rally are as follows:-

Nifty-EOD Chart(02-Mar-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

1- Resistance after 3 days selling between 5588-5625
2- Strong support between 5340-5415
3- Mixed trading positions between 5268-5458 in previous week.

Only one resistance range above previous week trading range and sustaining above 5458 will be confirmation of correction completion as well as testing of above mentioned resistance range with high possibility of sustaining as well as blasting rally also above 5625 because fresh impulsive wave will develop above 5458 after correction completion.

Crucial Supports in Assembly Election Results Week

Mixed trading positions in previous week 5268-5458 and Assembly election results will be declared on 06-03-2012 as well as negative results for Congress will certainly badly hamper sentiment therefore coming sessions may be highly volatile and follow up selling after any nervous news may result slipping below 5340/5268 also. Keep in mind all following 7 Supports of 2012 Rally with their strength:-

Nifty-EOD Chart(02-Mar-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

1- Strong support and base formation between 4532-4670
2- Minor support between 4590-4640
3- Strong support between 4680-4760
4- Support between 4810-4900
5- Minor support between 4992-5068
6- Support between 5120-5190
7- Strong support between 5340-5415

Sustaining below 5340/5268 will mean retracement of 20-Dec-2011 begun rally according to following Fibonacci Retracement Levels(4531-5629):-

Nifty-EOD Chart(02-Mar-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

13.0%- 5486
23.6%- 5369
27.0%- 5332
38.2%- 5209
50.0%- 5080
61.8%- 4950
70.7%- 4852
76.4%- 4790
78.6%- 4765
88.6%- 4656

Sustaining below 5340 will mean intermediate term trend turning down and that will mean:-


1- 3 weeks to 3 months down trend and more down moves possibility within this period.
2- Testing possibility of above Supports and Retracement Levels.

Most Important Support Range

Next support range(5120-5190) below 5340 is most important and long term trend decider also because it is containing little above and within it following crucial levels:

1- 38.2% Retracement Level- 5209
2- 55-Day EMA - today at 5192
3- 200-Day EMA- today at 5185
4- 200-Day SMA- today at 5167

Sustaining below 5340 will be first strong indication and sustaining below 5268 will be confirmation of deeper correction also and above mentioned levels will prove most helpful in thst situation.

For Decisive Break out more Preparation within 5298-5458

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(Feb 27 to Mar 01,2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in last 5 sessions intraday charts

1-Pennant Formation in 5 days intraday chart.
2- Higher Bottoms formations
3- Lower tops formations
4- Panic bottom at 5268 on 27-02-2012
5- Support at 5298
6- Top at 5458
7- Consolidation between 5298-5332
8  Selling between 5422-5458
9- Positive divergence in MACD
10- 5 Days trading between 5268-5458

Conclusions from 5 days intra day chart analysis 

Nifty traded between 5268-5458 and technical positions within this range will decide big moves after the break out of this range because Intermediate term trend decider 5340 is within this range.

Top of 5 days range is at 5458,bottom is at 5268 and weekly closing is at 5359 which is in the centre of both these levels. Selling at higher levels and buying at lower levels is clearly visible in 5 days intraday chart therefore Indian markets are not technically prepared for any side break out and more preparation is required in the coming 1/2 sessions for decisive break out.

Expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next direction between 5298-5458. 

Correction Fate Decider 5340-5415

Nifty-EOD Chart(02-Mar-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Rally above Rising Trendline.
2- 3 Sessions Selling.
3- Correction confirmation after Rising Trendline broken down.
4- Whole week trading near 5340-5415.
5- Weekly Closing at 5359.35 within 5340-5415.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Correction is on after 3 days selling at the top of rally. Long Tern trend is up,Short term trend is down and Intermediate term trend is sideways.

Sustaining beyond 5340 will decide the fate of Intermediate term trend and its importance has already been told more than 15 times in previous week and Nifty hovered it around whole week also.

Following lines were told on 26-02-2012 in the Weekly Outlook(Feb 27 to Mar 02,2012):-

1- strong supports also between 5340-5415 therefore complete distribution is must for slipping below 5340
2- Indian markets will firstly prepare minimum 2/3 sessions within sideways moves

Indian markets were sideways in previous week and hovered around 5340-5415 as well as closed also at 5359.35 within mentioned range.

Our Previous week projection proved 100% accurate and sustaining beyond 5340-5415 will decide the fate of Intermediate term trend as well as generate big moves towards breaking out direction.