Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Jan 30 to Feb 03, 2012)
Nifty-EOD Chart(27-Jan-2012):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
Averages are as follows:
200-Day EMA is at-5131
200-Day SMA is at-5202
Conclusions
Short and Intermediate term trends are up and long term trend turning up confirmation will be after sustaining above 200-Day EMA as well as 200-Day SMA. Last 2 sessions closing above 200-Day EMA and testing of 200-Day SMA on 27-01-2012.
Strong breathless rally seen in last one month but last confirmation for blasing rally is left through sustaining above 200-Day SMA because Nifty got stiff resistance at 200-Day SMA 3 times earlier.
Long term trend turning up final confirmation will be after sustaining above 200-Day SMA and should be watched firstly in next week.
Nifty-EOD Chart(27-Jan-2012):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Begining of strong rally on 20-12-2011 from 4531.15.
2- Trend Reversal 113 Sessions sideways market between 4720-5229 is intact.
3- Trend Reversal Broadening Pattern at the bottom of 14 months correction is intact.
4- Falling Trendline Correction from 5399 and its upward cross over.
5- Testing of Falling trend line from 6336 and Nifty retraced 7 times earlier from this falling trendline.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
Bullish pattrens are very much intact and Nifty is trading near the higher levels of these patterns. Testing of Falling trend line from 6336 and Nifty retraced 7 times earlier from this falling trendline. As sentiment is heated therefore therefore very short term correction is due now.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart(27-Jan-2012):-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts
1- Support between 5163-5185
2- Selling Patterns between 5187-5194
3- Selling Patterns between 5200-5210
4- Up moves without force in rising channel.
5- Whole day trading between 5163-5210
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although closing near the top of the day after lower levels support but up moves have been without force as well as higher levels selling patterns also therefore view is cautions. Rally is on but correction is over due because short term indicators are heated and very short term correction may be seen for cooling down of overbought indicators.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
Nifty tested following 2 crucial resistances on 27-Jan-2012;-
1- Testing of Falling trend line from 6336 and Nifty retraced 7 times earlier from this falling trendline.
2- Testing of 200-Day SMA and Nifty got stiff resistance at 200-Day SMA 3 times earlier.
Strong rally in 2012 and short term cotrrection will be seen only after complete distribution patterns and that has not beeen seen yet but very short term correction is due and that may be seen any day.
Although Nifty retraced several times from above mentioned levels but it does not mean that it will again happen. I posted following topic on 31-12-2011:-
I am Bullish from the very first day of 2012 and not expecting more than very short term correction and hoping that on going rally will remain continued after expected very short term correction.
