Wishing you all Happy,Healthy & Prosperous 2012
Weekly Outlook(Jan 02 to Jan 06,2012)
Nifty-Monthly Chart(30-Dec-2011)
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1- All trends are down.
2- Down moves in Falling Channel.
3- Monthly closing at 30 months lowest on the last day of 2011
Conclusions from Monthly chart analysis
2011 begun from long bearish Candle and finished also with long bearish candle and corrected that rally which begun in March 2009.
Nifty-Weekly Chart(30-Dec-2011)
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1- Weekly closing below the top of Wave-1(4693) at 4624.30
Conclusions from Weekly chart analysis
As per Elliot Wave Theory:-
"The bottom of wave 4 should not dip below the top of wave 1 of the same degree,at least on a closing price level"
Top of wave 1 was at 4693 and previous Weekly closing is below 4693 therefore Wave-4 is at stake and with this whole 38 months Waves structure which begum on 27-10-2008 from 2252 will break after confirmation of Wave-4 failure.
Nifty-EOD Chart(30-Dec-2011)
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1- Trend Reversal Broadening Pattern at the bottom of 13 months correction is still intact.
2- 97 Sessions sideways market between 4720-5229 broken down.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
All trends are down after 13 months correction and above mentioned 2 trend reversal formations for the last 97 months and in which sideways market structure has been broken down. Last hope of Bulls survival is that Trend Reversal Broadening Pattern which is still intact.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart(30-Dec-2011)
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1- Selling between 4675-4687
2- Sharp fall
2- Last more than one hour support between 4610-4627
3- Whole day trading between 4610-4627
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although selling at higher levels but intraday support also during last more than one hour seen therefore minor upmove is expected in the beginning of next week
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
All trends are down at the end of 2011.
As per Elliot Wave Theory:-
"The bottom of wave 4 should not dip below the top of wave 1 of the same degree,at least on a closing price level"
Top of wave 1 was at 4693 and Nifty closed below 4693 last Friday. It means that Wave 4 of Nifty dipped and closed below the top of wave 1. As Trend Reversal Broadening Pattern at the bottom of 13 months correction is still intact therefore it will be understood that 38 months waves structure(Patient) is on ventilator and structure termation will get confirmation throgh sustaining below 4693 and dipping below the falling lower line of Broadening Pattern.
Next immediate supports are as follows:-
1- 4602-4624
2- 4560-4590
First of all it has to be decided that Nifty is getting support at above mentioned supports or not. As intraday support seen last Friday between 4610-4627 therefore sustaining beyond above support will be firstly watched in the beginning of next week and finally sustaining below 4560 will be confirmation of 38 months waves structure failure and in that situation much lower levels will be expected. Sustaining above 4627 be confirmation of survival hopes revival and any rally will get up moves confirmation according to crossing of crucial higher levels and multiple resistances.
Most depressed sentiment at the beginning of 2012 because lowest closing of 2011 and first of all sustaining beyond 4610-4627 will be firstly watched. Finally sustaining beyond 4560 will give following confirmation in next week;-
1- Below 4560 will mean Bear victory with sharp down.
2- Above 4560 will mean revival of Bull's survival hopes.