Weekly Analysis- 06-12-2010 to 10-12-2010

Following lines were told on 27-11-2010(Saturday) which prooved 100% accurate:-


"Pull back rally will be seen. Expecting completion of correction and begining of fresh rally in the coming week but sustaining above 6015 is must for confirmations"

278 Nifty points pull back rally seen in last week which could not sustain above 6015 and Nifty closed at 5993. Last Week highest is 6030. 3 days vertical rise and 2 days narrow range moves within 5965-6025 seen during last week. Last 2 days range is now trend decider and its break out will give following moves:-

1- Sustaining above 6025 will mean clearing of strong resistance and testing of next resistance range( 6080-6120) and 61.8%(6091) retracement level.

2- Sustining below 5965 will mean strengthening of resistance at 6015(or 6025) and correction of first 3 days vertical rise of last week. If correction starts then firstly following fibonacci retracement levels should be watched for correction completion confirmations:-

23.6%- 5950
38.2%- 5900
50.0%- 5860
61.8%- 5820
76.4%- 5770
88.6%- 5728

1- Fibonacci Retracement Levels Daily Chart:-

Conclusions

As only 2 days selling indications therefore correction will be firstly expected according to above mentioned fibonacci retracement levels and if follow up selling develops in next week then deeper correction will be considered.

5965-6025 is next trend decider and sustaining beyond should be watched for next above mentioned moves.

NIFTY-DEC F&O-2ND SHORTING TRADE OF 03-12-2010-TRADING

NIFTY(DEC FUT-SELL-POSITIONAL)SL-6036-TGT-5954-CMP-6023
NIFTY(DEC PUT OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR PUT-5900,6000,6100-NIFTY(DEC FUT)-RATES ARE FOR-SL-6036-TGT-5954 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-6023

NIFTY-DEC F&O-1ST SHORTING TRADE OF 03-12-2010-COVERING

NIFTY DEC F & O(SHORTED TODAY)-COVER IMMEDIATELY-CMP-6020

NIFTY-DEC F&O-1ST SHORTING TRADE OF 03-12-2010-TRADE

NIFTY(DEC FUT-SELL-POSITIONAL)SL-6036-TGT-5954-CMP-5997
NIFTY(DEC PUT OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR PUT-5900,6000,6100-NIFTY(DEC FUT)-RATES ARE FOR-SL-6036-TGT-5954 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-5997

Mid-Session Outlook(03-12-2010)

Nifty Hovering around yesterday last 45 minutes range(6005-6018) since opening today and sustaining beyond mentioned range will give following conclusions:-

1- Sustaining above 6015 will mean crossing strong resistance range and testing possibility of next resistance range(6080-6120) and 61.8% retracement level(6091)
2- Moving below 6005 will give first down move indication and sustaing below 5980 will give confirmation to temination of that pull back rally which started last Friday.

Intraday charts are not showing strength today.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(03-12-2010)

Nifty traded within 5980-6018 yesterday and intraday charts within narrow range moves are showing consolidations patterns. Yesterday intraday charts of many other pivotal stocks are also showing buying formations.Nifty traded within 6005-6018 in last 45 minutes and intraday patterns of this period are signalling selling therefore sustaining above 6015 has to be watched for next up move confirmations. Next resistance ranges are as follows and its testing is possible after sustaining above 6015:-

1- 6080-6120
2- 6180-6195
3- 6250-6320

Pull back rally started from 5690 and its Fibonacci Retracement levels are as follows:-

13.0%- 5774
23.6%- 5843
27.0%- 5865
38.2%- 5937
50.0%- 6014
61.8%- 6091
70.7%- 6148
76.4%- 6185
78.6%- 6200
88.6%- 6265

50% retracement has been completed and next level 61.8%(6091) will be crucial because it is within next resistance range. Global markets are positive,sentiment is good today morning and sustaining above 6015 today will give confermation to sharp up move toward next resistance range. It should be kept in mind that complete distribution patterns require for begining of down move and until that will not be visible minimum within intraday charts till then any down move will not be considered.

Next up move confirmation point for today is sustaining above 6015 and next move confirmation range is 6982-6018. Intraday charts of first 2/3 hours will give confirmations to next moves and and according to that today closing and next moves will be decided.

Mid-Session Outlook-3(02-12-2010)

Market slipped from higher levels after minor profit booking. Volatality is also possible after inflation data today. As good consolidations in previous sessions therefore finally sustaining above 6015 possibility is high.

Nifty is trading within strong resistance range(5975-6015) and its break out and sustaining beyond should be watched for next move confirmations.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(02-12-2010)

I was out of station for the last 3 days therefore could not post my outlooks but before leaving I projected following conclusions in my weekly on 27-11-2010(Saturday) that:-

1- I told that "Pull Back Rally is on Cards"
2- I Posted 4 charts to proove pull back rally.
3- I Posted 7 strong reasons for pull back rally.
4- I told that "As per my view Nifty will not sustain below 5700 and minimum a pull back rally will be seen"
5- I told that "pull back rally will be seen. Expecting completion of correction and begining of fresh rally in the coming week"

214 Nifty points rally seen in last 3 sessions. Last strong resistance range is 5935-6015 and Nifty traded within 5935-5965 yesterday. Global markets blasting therefore sentiment strong today morning and if Nifty sutiuns above 6015 then it will be strong confirmation of Intermediate term trend turning upward and continuation of pull back rally.

Sentiment heated today morning and profit booking possibility can not be ruled out. Intraday charts of yesterday are showing good consolidations and sustaining above 6015 possibility is high as well as positive closing after gap up opening will be seen today.

Only this line is adding that today intraday charts are suggesting consolidations and no harm to uptrend which started last Friday.

As lack of time therefore posting only this conclusion.

Blog will be regularly updated from Thursday morning. Sorry for inconvience.

Pull Back Rally is on Cards

Weekly Analysis- 29-11-2010 to 03-12-2010

Following lines were told in the last conclusive paragraph of last week weekly:-

"Nifty will finally sustain below 5932 after fresh selling in the coming week and weekly closing will be Red"

Nifty not only sustained below 5932 but also weekly closing was in Red.

Nifty has retraced 61.8%(5727) of earliier rise of 990 points. Vertical fall seen in last 14 sessions and it is shown in following EOD chart.

1- Vertical Fall in last 14 Sessions Chart-

Nifty has completed 5 waves in recent fall and it is shown in following EOD chart.

2- 5 Down waves Chart-

Last Friday intraday chart is good consolidations between 5700-5800 and it is shown in following intrady chart.

3- 1 Day Intraday Chart-

4- Daily Indicators and Averages chart-

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together):- 

Nifty has suatined below 5932,Weekly MACD has given down move confirmation and intermediate term trend is confirm down. compelete consolidation required for fresh rally and in this process 200 Day EMA testing possibility can not be ruled out.

Nothing is extreme truth in all the financial markets and one has to use his discretion and judge all the situations. Following 7 deveplopments are suggesting pull back rally in this week:-

1- Last 14 sessions steep fall has been seen and such down moves can not be seen continuously therefore some upmoves are confirm.
2- Line chart is showing 5 down waves formations and 5th wave is almost equal to 1st wave. I mean to say that 5th wave is also sufficiently down therefore signaling up moves possibility.
3- 61.8% retracement has been completed.
4- Intraday charts of last Friday are showing whole day good consolidations within 5700-5800.
5- Daily and very short term indicators are sufficiently oversold and signalling sharp upmove possibility.
6- Big divergence in both lines of MACD and according to its nature it has to converge therefore in this process market has to move up.
7- Nifty is below lower band of Bollinger Band and suggesting sharp surge.

Uptrend and fresh rally confirmations levels are as follows:-

1- Sustaining above 5932
2- Crossing and sustaining above following 3 resistances
a- 5850-5895
b- 5935-5975(Strong resistance)
c- 5975-6015(Strong resistance)

Good consolidation seen last Friday within 5700-5800 but not sufficient for a rally and follow up consolidation is must in the begining of week. As per my view Nifty will not sustain below 5700 and minimum a pull back rally will be seen. Vertical fall of last 14 sessions is suggesting correction compeletion possibility also but confirmations required from coming sessions consolidations and sustaining above 6015.

Consolidations between 5700-5850 expected in the begining of week and after that pull back rally will be seen. Expecting completion of correction and begining of fresh rally in the coming week but sustaining above 6015 is must for confirmations.

Pre-Closing Outlook(26-11-2010)

Panic sentiment today morning and Indian markets got good support at lower levels. 61.8% retracement level broken but market recovered after rounding bottom and higher bottom and higher top formations. Good support at lower levels but slipped more than 68 points from the high near 02 pm today. Although sharp slip from higher levels but today patterns are showing consolidations. If Nifty sustains above 5820 then today trading range will be support.

It is only 1st consolidation indication and follow up action is must in the coming week for convertion my bearish religion. conclusions from today intraday charts have been posted and let process complete then will be conveyed accordingly..

Mid-Session Outlook-2(26-11-2010)

Market is down and moves are extremely fast today morning. Let down trend stop and form base through double bottom/higher bottom/rounding bottom and nifty cross minimum 8 Minutes EMA then a very short term intraday buying can be done with strict stop loss below lowest.

Mid-Session Outlook(26-11-2010)

Support range for today is 5780-5850 which has been broken down in early trades today. Next crucial levels are as follows:-

1- Next support range-  5580-5640
2- 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level- 5727

61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is understood good retracement level also and should be watched for confirmation of support at this level. Keep following lessons in mind:-

1- Bottom fishing in bear markets is always injurious to wealth.
2- Buying in bear markets is like catching falling knief and resulting one'sown hand full of one's own blood.

Just watch above mentioned levels and if Nifty get support near or above levels then may start buying,initially for very short term and positions should be increased after confirmations of supports strengthening.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(26-11-2010)

It is being non stop told since long for bear markets and dipping below 5932 possibility and it has happened. My outlooks are live proofs of this fact that I told only for bullish run away rally from 05-07-2010 and that was seen. When I started to tell for correction,rally stopped and correction started after that. Let market complete its correction then I shall tell well in advance about completion of correction and commencement of fresh rally.

As intermediate term correction is confirm therefore according to market nature 200-Day EMA testing possibility is high. Markets Moves does not mature within hours but takes its own time to complete process therefore let consolidation start and finish then up moves should be expected. As short term indicators are oversold therefore minor Pull back rally can be expected after any panic bottom but rally should be expected after complete consolidations.

Resistances are as follows:-

1- 5850-5895
2- 5935-5975(Strong resistance)
3- 5975-6015(Strong resistance)
4- 6080-6120
5- 6180-6195
6- 6250-6320

Supports are as follows:-

1- 5780-5805                                      
2- 5580-5640
3- 5475-5500
4- 5420-5445
5- 5350-5370

Next Fibonacci correction levels are as follows:-

50.0%- 5844
61.8%- 5727
70.7%- 5639
76.4%- 5582
78.6%- 5560
88.6%- 5461

Nifty traded within 1st support range yesterday and expected that Nifty will hover around 5800 today. Any minor intraday up move possibility on the back of positive news or global sentiments can not be ruled out but until Nifty will not sustain minimum above mentioned 1st resistance till then any up move will not be considered. Today trading range is 5780-5850 and closing expected within it also.

6015 is Laxman Rekha

Post-Open Market Outlook(25-11-2010)

Intraday slow up moves are possible today but more or less quiet market and derivative expiery near 5900 expected today. View is bearish and 6015 is Laxman Rekha and not going to be crossed easily. Very much expected that selling will develop in the coming couple of sessions and finally fresh down moves will be seen either from tomorrow of in next week. 200 Day EMA testing posibility is high.

High Possibility of Testing 200-Day EMA(today at 5522)

Pre-Open Market Outlook(25-11-2010)

Down move Confirmations from MACD & Intraday Charts

Nifty is hovering around 5932 for the last 5 sessions and closed below it after genuine selling fomations between 5935-5975. Previous strong resistance was 5975-6015 and fresh selling was seen just below it yesterday therefore resistance within 5935-6015 is now much stronger resistance. Indian markets require complete consolidation patterns to cross this range and until it will not happened till then 6015 will not cross.

5932 was previous strong support and strong resistance developed just above(5935-6015) it therefore its breaking down and intermediate term trend turning down is confirm now. Weekly MACD gave strong down move confirmation through downward cross over therefore further down move and 200-Day EMA(today at 5522) testing is very much expected now.

Following charts are showing down move confirmation in MACD & intraday chart:-

1-5 days intraday chart-

2-MACD Down Cross Over in Weekly Chart-

Dow Jones Trading 130 points up at 10:32 pm on 24-11-2010 but above mentioned down moves are confirm and will be seen in the coming sessions. Strong global sentiment expected on 25th Nov morning and also very much posibile that Indian markets may be positive from opening to closing but will be finally down and dip below 24th Nov lower levels(5866) in the coming sessions.

Nifty sustaining below 5935 and is very much high and for precaution just watch sustaining beyond 5935-6015 for next trend confirmations.

Fresh Down move Confirmation in MACD & Intraday Chart

Nifty is hovering around 5932 for the last 5 sessions and closed below it after genuine selling fomations between 5935-5975.Previous strong resistance was 5975-6015 and fresh selling as seen just below it today therefore resistance within 5935-6015 is now much stronger resistance. Indian markets require complete consolidation patterns to cross this range and until it will not happened till then 6015 will not cross.

5932 was previous strong support and strong resistance developed above it therefore its breaking down and intermediate term trend turning down is confirm now. Weekly MACD gave strong down move confirmation through downward cross over therefore further down move and 200-Day EMA testing is very much expected now.

Following charts are showing down move confirmation in MACD & intraday chart:-

1-5 days intraday chart-

2-MACD Down Cross Over in Weekly Chart-

Dow Jones Trading 100 points up at this moment today but above mentioned down moves are confirm and will be seen in the coming sessions.

Mid-Session Outlook(24-11-2010)

Market recovered nicely but sellling at higher levels developed after confirmation of Congress big defeat in Bihar elections. 5960-5975 intraday resistance.

NIFTY-DEC F&O-1ST BUYING TRADE OF 24-11-2010-COVERING

NIFTY DEC F & O(BOUGHT TODAY)-SELLING SEEN AT HIGHER LEVEL AFTER CONGRESS DEFEAT IN BIHAR ELECTIONS THEREFORE COVER IMMEDIATELY-CMP-5984

NIFTY-DEC F&O-1ST BUYING TRADE OF 24-11-2010-TRADE

NIFTY(DEC FUT-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5969-TGT-6064CMP-5994

NIFTY(DEC CALL OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR CALL-6000,6100-NIFTY(DEC FUT)-RATES ARE FOR SL-5969-TGT-6064 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-5994

5932 will Decide Match

Pre-Open Market Outlook(24-11-2010)

Long term trend is up,Short term trend is down and Intermediate term trend is sideways.

Wave 3 started from 3919 on 13-07-2009 and could not test its minimum target(6359). Nifty retraced after travelling 2440 points as well as shortened by 20 points to test its minimum target. On going leg started on 31-08-2010 from 5349 and short term correction started from 6339 after gaining 990 points. Short term correction started after good selling formations at higher levels in daily and intraday charts therefore good consolidations required at lower levels

5932 had been strong support and again prooved its strength in last 4 sessions through Nifty not sustaing below it despite 3 times breaking it down. Following 3 formations have also been developed therefore correction completion near 5932 will be considered if Nifty does not sustain below 5932:-

1- Falling channel formation in last 5 sessions intraday charts and it is bullish pattern.
2- Expanding triangle formations in daily charts. It is continuation pattern and showing on going uptrend continuation.
3- Short term indicators are oversold and signalling very short term upmove.
4- Yesterday candle is bullish hammer.
5- Supports at lower levels in last 4 sessions.

1- Falling Channel IN Last 5 Days Intraday Chart-

2- Expanding Triangle Formation chart-

As patterns emergrd therefore explained with this conclusion that 5932 should be watched and if Nifty sustains below it then be bearish for fresh down moves toward 200 Day EMA and if Nifty could not sustain below then crossing 6015 will be correction completion confirmation and first of all maket will be understood range bound within 5900-6330.

Dow is trading more than 150 points down therefore weaker Asian markets expected today morning and Nifty sustaining below or above 5932 should be watched for next move confirmations in the coming couple of sessions. My view is turning bullish after watching mentioned consolidation foemations. Today opening,and closing may be weak but intraday patterns showing consolidations despite weakness will turn view bullish for fresh upmoves.