Following lines were told in the last conclusive paragraph of last week weekly:-
"Nifty will finally sustain below 5932 after fresh selling in the coming week and weekly closing will be Red"
Nifty not only sustained below 5932 but also weekly closing was in Red.
Nifty has retraced 61.8%(5727) of earliier rise of 990 points. Vertical fall seen in last 14 sessions and it is shown in following EOD chart.
1- Vertical Fall in last 14 Sessions Chart-
Nifty has completed 5 waves in recent fall and it is shown in following EOD chart.
2- 5 Down waves Chart-
Last Friday intraday chart is good consolidations between 5700-5800 and it is shown in following intrady chart.
3- 1 Day Intraday Chart-
4- Daily Indicators and Averages chart-
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together):-
Nifty has suatined below 5932,Weekly MACD has given down move confirmation and intermediate term trend is confirm down. compelete consolidation required for fresh rally and in this process 200 Day EMA testing possibility can not be ruled out.
Nothing is extreme truth in all the financial markets and one has to use his discretion and judge all the situations. Following 7 deveplopments are suggesting pull back rally in this week:-
1- Last 14 sessions steep fall has been seen and such down moves can not be seen continuously therefore some upmoves are confirm.
2- Line chart is showing 5 down waves formations and 5th wave is almost equal to 1st wave. I mean to say that 5th wave is also sufficiently down therefore signaling up moves possibility.
3- 61.8% retracement has been completed.
4- Intraday charts of last Friday are showing whole day good consolidations within 5700-5800.
5- Daily and very short term indicators are sufficiently oversold and signalling sharp upmove possibility.
6- Big divergence in both lines of MACD and according to its nature it has to converge therefore in this process market has to move up.
7- Nifty is below lower band of Bollinger Band and suggesting sharp surge.
Uptrend and fresh rally confirmations levels are as follows:-
1- Sustaining above 5932
2- Crossing and sustaining above following 3 resistances
a- 5850-5895
b- 5935-5975(Strong resistance)
c- 5975-6015(Strong resistance)
Good consolidation seen last Friday within 5700-5800 but not sufficient for a rally and follow up consolidation is must in the begining of week. As per my view Nifty will not sustain below 5700 and minimum a pull back rally will be seen. Vertical fall of last 14 sessions is suggesting correction compeletion possibility also but confirmations required from coming sessions consolidations and sustaining above 6015.
Consolidations between 5700-5850 expected in the begining of week and after that pull back rally will be seen. Expecting completion of correction and begining of fresh rally in the coming week but sustaining above 6015 is must for confirmations.