Sustaining beyond 2 levels will confirm
next bigger downward moves
beginning or not
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Oct 14 to Oct 18,2024)
Nifty-Weekly Chart Analysis
(Waves Structure,Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-Weekly Chart (11-Oct-2024):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in Weekly charts
1- Corrective Wave-C of previous Waves structure "ABC correction" completion at 15183.40 on 17-06-2022 and Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure beginning.
2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 18887.60 on 02-12-2022.
3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 16828.30 on 24-03-2023.
4- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 completion at 20222.45 on 15-09-2023.
5- Corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 18837.80 on 27-10-2023
6- Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 continuation with its recent high and new life time top formations at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024.
7- Short Term correction continuation with recent bottom formations at 24694.30 on 07-10-2024.
8- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling from Over bought zone.
9- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 42.58 & %D(3)- 68.60.
10- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in positive zone.
11- MACD(26,12)- 994.34 & EXP(9)- 1123.65 & Divergence- -129.31
Conclusions from Weekly chart analysis
(Waves structure,Stochastic & MACD)
Corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" of previous Waves structure completed at 15183.40 on 17-06-2022 and from this level impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure started. Impulsive Wave-1 completed at 18887.60 on 02-12-2022 and from this level Wave-2 begun which completed at 16828.30 on 24-03-2023 and impulsive Wave-3 begun from this level.
Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 completed at 20222.45 on 15-09-2023 and from this level corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 started which completed at 18837.80 on 27-10-2023 and impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 begun from this level. Now Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 is in continuation with its recent high and new life time top formations at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024. Although no confirmation of its completion yet on Weekly charts but Short Term correction begun from this level which is in continuation with recent bottom formations at 24694.30 on 07-10-2024 and no confirmation of its completion also on Weekly charts.
Technical positions of Intermediate Term indicators are as follows:-
1- As in Stochastic its %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling from Over bought zone therefore it will be understood that strong signals of Intermediate Term beginning has been generated and will be seen in the coming weeek/weeks.
2- As in MACD indicator its MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in positive zone therefore strong indications of on going correction continuation after Intermediate Term Trend turning down confirmations.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (11-Oct-2024):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-C of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 and impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 beginning.
2- Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 continuation with its recent high and new life time top formations at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024.
3- Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 has gained 7439.5 points(39.49%) in the last almost 1 year.
4- Short Term correction continuation with recent bottom formations at 24694.30 on 07-10-2024.
5- Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 has corrected 1583 points in the last 10 sessions.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Waves structure)
Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 which started from 18837.80 is now in continuation with its recent high and new life time top formations at 26277.30 after gaining 7439.5 points and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts. As now Short Term correction continuation with recent bottom formations at 24694.30 after loosing 1583 points and no indication of its completion also therefore:-
1- Firstly On going correction completion confirmations is required for any decisive upward move beginning confirmations.
2- Once sustaining below on going correction bottom(24694.30) will mean deeper correction beginning confirmations.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (11-Oct-2024):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Bearish Head and Shoulders pattern formations with its Neckline at 24753
2- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are rising from Over sold zone.
3- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 39.63 & %D(3)- 30.87.
4- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in positive and negative zone.
5- MACD(26,12)- -233.19 & EXP(9)- 188.63 & Divergence- -421.82
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Bearish Head and Shoulders pattern has been developed on EOD charts and its Neckline is at 24753. Although Nifty slipped below its Neckline but closed above it at 24765.8 on 07-10-2024 after intraday bottom formations below it at 24694.30. As Nifty traded just above its Neckline in the last 4 sessions of previous week between 24757-25234 therefore firstly sustaining beyond this range should be watched in the coming week for next decisive bigger moves beginning confirmations.
Technical positions of Short Term indicators are as follows:-
1- As in Stochastic its %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling from Over sold zone therefore it will be understood that at present this indicator is showing more downward moves in the coming week.
2- As in MACD indicator its MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in positive and negative zone therefore it will be understood that this indicator is showing more downward moves in the coming week after Short Term Trend turning downward confirmations.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (11-Oct-2024):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
Averages:-
1- 5-Day SMA is today at 24951
2- 21-Day SMA is today at 25478
3- 55-Day SMA is today at 25026
4- 100-Day SMA is today at 24400
5- 200-Day SMA is today at 23226
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Averages)
Although Long Term Trend is confirm up after Nifty trading well above its decider 200-Day SMA but Short Term Trend is confirm down and Intermediate Term Trend is at stake because Nifty is hovering around its decider 55-Day SMA for the last 6 sessions and closed below it also 4 times. As finally sustaining beyond 55-Day SMA will confirm next Intermediate Term trend formations and resultant next one sided bigger moves beginning therefore firstly it should be watched in the coming week/weeks.
Conclusions
(After putting all studies together)
1- Long Term Trend is up.
2- Intermediate Term trend is at stake.
3- Short Term Trend is down.
Short Term Correction which begun after new life time top formations at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024 is now in continuation with recent bottom formations at 24694.30 on 07-10-2024 and no indication of its completion yet on EOD Charts.
As Bearish Head and Shoulders pattern formations and Intermediate/Short Term indicators are also showing signals of on going correction continuation possibility therefore bigger downward moves can not be ruled out in the coming week and firstly sustaining beyond following levels should be watched in the coming week for its confirmations:-
1- Intermediate Term Trend 55-Day SMA which is today at 25026 and it will confirm from next 3 weeks to 3 months long one sided moves.
2- Bearish Head and Shoulders pattern Neckline at 24753.