Finally sustaining beyond 55-Day SMA will confirm next Trend & bigger moves beginning
Technical Analysis,Research &
Weekly Outlook(Dec 16 to Dec 20,2024)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Dec-2024):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 16828.30 on 20-03-2023 and impulsive Wave-3 beginning.
2- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 completion at 20222.45 on 15-09-2023 and Wave-A of "ABC" correction beginning.
3- Wave-A of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 19333.60 on 04-10-2023.
4- Wave-B of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 19849.80 on 17-10-2023.
5- Corrective Wave-C of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 and impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 beginning.
6- Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 completion with new life time top formations at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024 and corrective Wave-4 beginning.
9- Corrective Wave-(iV) of Wave-3 recent bottom formations at 23263.20 on 21-11-2024.
10- Short Term upward moves continuation with recent top formations at 24857.8 on 05-12-2024.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Waves structure)
Impulsive Wave-3 started from 16828.30 on 20-03-2023 after corrective Wave-2 completion at this levels. Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 completed at 20222.4 on 15-09-20235 and from this level corrective Wave-A of "ABC" correction of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 begun which completed at 19333.60 on 04-10-2023 and Wave-B started from this level. Wave-B completed at 19849.80 on 17-10-2023 and Wave-C started from this levels which completed at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 and impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 begun from this level.
Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 completed with new life time top formations at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024 and corrective Wave-4 started which is now in continuation with its recent bottom formations at 23263.20 on 21-11-2024 and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts. Short Term upward moves begun from the lower levels(23263.20) of on going correction which are in continuation with recent top formations at 24857.8 on 05-12-2024 and no confirmation of its completion yet also on EOD and intraday charts.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Dec-2024):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- 1- Stochastic- Its both lines %K(5) and %D(3) are kissing below Over bought zone.
2- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 58.59 & %D(3)- 53.92.
3- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line upward and its both lines are risingin positive zone.
4- MACD(26,12)- 445.03 & EXP(9)- 278.55 & Divergence- 166.48
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Technical positions of Short Term indicators are as follows:-
1- As in Stochastic its both lines %K(5) and %D(3) are kissing below Over bought zone therefore it will be understood that now this indicator is not generating any side decisive moves begiinng clear signals. Let this indicator to generate any side decisive moves beginning clear signals through one sided intersection then that side decisive moves will be seen.
2- As in MACD its MACD line has intersected Average line upward and its both lines are rising in positive zone therefore it will be understood that MACD indicator has shown stronger signals of Upward Trend formations and resultant on going upward moves continuation will be expected.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Dec-2024):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
Averages:-
1- 5-Day SMA is today at 24637
2- 21-Day SMA is today at 24182
3- 55-Day SMA is today at 24556
4- 100-Day SMA is today at 24709
5- 200-Day SMA is today at 23782
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Averages)
The rally which started after getting supports at Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA at 23263.20 on 21-11-2024 is now in continuation and now Nifty is hovering around Intermediate Term Trend decider 55-Day SMA for the last 7 sessions. Short and Long Term Trends are already up and finally sustaining beyond 55-Day SMA will confirm next Intermediate Term Trend as well as one sided decisive bigger moves beginning.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(13-Dec-2024)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (13-Dec-2024):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- Firstly 367 down in first 2 hours.
2- 611 Points recovery from lower levels
3- Whole day actual trading between 24181-24792
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although firstly Nifty traded 367 down in first 2 hours but after that decisive upward moves started and Nifty recovered 611 points from intraday lower levels as well as closed 219 points up which was once 367 points down. As Technical positions reverses during such high intraday volatility therefore next trend will be decided through sustaining beyond next supports and resistances.
Conclusions
(After putting all studies together)
1- Long Term Trend is up.
2- Intermediate Term trend is at stake.
3- Short Term Trend is up.
Impulsive Wave-3 which begun from 16828.30 completed with new life time top formations at 26277.30 and corrective Wave-(iV) of Wave-3 started which is now in continuation after recent bottom formations at 23263.20 and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts. Short Term upward moves begun which are in continuation with recent top formations at 24857.8 on 05-12-2024 and no confirmation of its completion also on EOD and intraday charts.
Although Short Term indicator Stochastic is not showing clear signals of any side decisive moves beginning but MACD is confirming Short Term upward Trend formations and resultant generation of on going Short Term upward moves continuation clear signals. As huge intraday volatility was seen last Friday and Technical positions reverses also during such high intraday volatility therefore next Trend will be decided through levels. Nifty is hovering around Intermediate Term trend decider 55-Day SMA(today at 24556) for the last 7 sessions therefore firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched in the coming weeek/weeks for next trend formations and bigger moves beginning in following manner:-
1- Sustaining above 55-Day SMA will mean Strong rally beginning towards and/or above life time top because that will confirm on going Intermediate Term correction completion at 23263.20 on 21-11-2024.
2- Sustaining below 55-Day SMA will mean that Intermediate Term Trend is down and resultant downward moves will be seen toward and/or below the bottom of on going Intermediate Term correction at 23263.20.
Resistances above 55-Day SMA(today at 24556) are as follows:-
1- 24627-24684
2- 24787-24886
3- 25122-25157
4- 25198-25234
5- 25421-25468
6- 25592-25626
7- 25640-25739
8- 25787-25828(Gap Resistance)
9- 25886-25912
10- 25969-25606
11- 26135-26151(Gap Resistance)
Supports below 55-Day SMA(today at 24556) are as follows:-
1- 24388-24439
2- 24143-24222
3- 24079-24117
4- 23816-23853
5- 23654-23712
6- 23447-23545
7- 23298-23337
8- 23161-23206
9- 22961-23096
10- 22760-22871
11- 22291-22395
12- 21884-22191
13- 21502-21582
14- 21417-21500