Down moves expectations towards
next supports
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Apr 29 to May 03,2024)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (26-Apr-2024):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 16828.30 on 20-03-2023 Impulsive Wave-3 beginning from this level.
2- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 completion at 20222.45 on 15-09-2023 and Wave-A of "ABC" correction beginning.
3- Wave-A of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 19333.60 on 04-10-2023.
4- Wave-B of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 19849.80 on 17-10-2023.
5- Corrective Wave-C of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 and impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 beginning.
6- Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 continuation with its recent high and new life time top formations at 22775.70 on 10-04-2024.
7- Short Term correction completed at 21777.65 on 19-04-2024.
8- Pull Back rally continuation with its recent high formations at 22626.00 on 25-04-2024.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Waves structure)
Impulsive Wave-3 started from 16828.30 after corrective Wave-2 completion at this level. Now Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 is in continuation with its recent high and life time top formations at 22775.70 on 10-04-2024 as well as no conirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts but Short Term correction started form this level which completed at 21777.65 on 19-04-2024. Now Pull Back rally continuation with its recent high formations at 22626.00 on 25-04-2024 and no confirmation of its completion yet therefore firstly life and length of this on going Pull Back rally should be watched in the coming week/weeks for next big moves beginning confirmations.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (26-Apr-2024):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Rising Channel Pattern formations and Nifty is moving within it
2- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward in Over bought zone.
3- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 78.23 & %D(3)- 85.47.
4- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in positive and negative zone.
5- MACD(26,12)- -38.74 & EXP(9)- 113.71 & Divergence- -152.45
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Rising Channel Pattern started to develop 3 months and now Nifty is moving within it after getting supports its rising lower line in previous week. Let Nifty to sustain it beyond and start decisive moves towards that direction then that side trend formations and big moves beginning will be considered. Technical positions of Short Term indicators are as follows:-
1- As in Stochastic indicator %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward in Over bought zone therefore it will be understood that this indicator has generated first signal of down moves beginning. Let its both lines to start downward moves from Over bought zone then Bearish moves will be seen.
2- As in MACD indicator its MACD line has intersected Average line downward in positive zone and its both lines are falling in positive and negative zones therefore it will be understood that this indicator has started to show downward trend formation signals.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (26-Apr-2024):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
Averages:-
1- 5-Day SMA is today at 22419
2- 21-Day SMA is today at 22384
3- 55-Day SMA is today at 22195
4- 100-Day SMA is today at 21852
5- 200-Day SMA is today at 20717
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Averages)
As Nifty has closed above all the averages last Friday after getting supports at 55-Day SMA therefore all the trends will be understood up but confirmation is required through sustaining above 21-Day SMA then decisive up moves will be seen after previous weeks correction completion.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(26-Apr-2024)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (26-Apr-2024):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- Down moves with upward corrections
2- Sharp fall
3- Lower levels support in last 2 hours between 22386-22460
4- Whole day actual trading between 22386-22620
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although 49 points positive opening last Friday but selling developed therefore down moves started which remained continued more than 4 hours. As these down moves were with upward corrections which mean intraday selling patterns formations therefore sharp fall was seen in the last of this intraday fall.
As lower levels support was also seen in last 2 hours between 22386-22460 therefore expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next decisive moves within and near about this supports range in the beginning of next week. Finally sustaining beyond this range will confirm next decisive moves beginning hence it should be firstly watched in the coming week for its confirmations.
Conclusions
(After putting all studies together)
1- Long Term trend is up.
2- Intermediate Term trend is up.
3- Short Term Trend is up.
Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 continuation with its recent high and new life time top formations at 22775.70 and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts but Short Term begun from this level which completed at 21777.65 in previous week. Pull Back rally started from this level which is in continuation with its recent high formations at 22626.00 on 25-04-2024.
Although Averages are suggesting that now all the Trends are up but Short Term indicators have started to show Short Term correction beginning signals and intraday charts of last Friday have also shown higher levels intraday selling patterns formations therefore firstly down moves are expected towards following next supports:-
1- 22261-22471
2- 22199-22258
3- 21886-22027
4- 21795-21860
5- 21711-21791
6- 21653-21690
7- 21544-21628
Resistances above last Friday closing are as follows and until Nifty will not sustain above these resistances till then decisive up moves will not be seen amid firstly down moves expectation in next week:-
1- 22516-22552
2- 22578-22609
3- 22654-22726
4- 22735-22768