Remain cautious & watch supports amid
Short to Intermediate Term correction
beginning expectations
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Jan 08 to Jan 12,2024)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (05-Jan-2024):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" completion at 15183.4 on 17-06-2022 and Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure beginning.
2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 18096.2 on 15-09-2022.
3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 16747.7 on 30-09-2022.
4- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 completion at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022.
5- Corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 16828.3 on 20-03-2023.
6- Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 completion at 20222.45 on 15-09-2023 and Wave-A of "ABC" correction beginning.
7- Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at 19333.6 on 04-10-2023.
8- Wave-B of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at 19849.8 on 17-10-2023.
9- Corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 and impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 beginning.
10- Impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 continuation with its recent high and new life time top formations at 21834.30 on 01-01-2024.
11- Short Term correction continuation with its recent bottom formations at 21500.30 on 03-01-2024
12- Last 8 sessions trading between 21501-21834
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Waves structure)
Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure started from 15183.4 on 17-06-2022 after corrective Wave-C of previous Waves structure completion at this level. Now its impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 continuation with its recent high and new life time top formations at 21834.30 on 01-01-2024 and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts but Short Term correction begun from this levels which has now turned sideways for the last 8 sessions between 21501-21834.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (05-Jan-2024):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling towards Over sold zone.
2- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 38.49 & %D(3)- 39.46.
3- Stochastic is showing negative divergence
4- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in positive zone.
5- MACD(26,12)- 349.53 & EXP(9)- 461.97 & Divergence- -112.44
6- MACD is showing negative divergence
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Position of Short Term indicators are as follows:-
1- As in Stochastic indicator %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling towards Over sold zone as well as this this indicator showing negative divergence therefore strong signals of Short Term correction continuation will be understood.
2- As in MACD indicator MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in positive zone as well as this this indicator is showing negative divergence therefore it will be understood that MACD indicator is showing strong possibility of short Term downward trend formations.
Nifty-Last 8 Sessions
intraday charts analysis
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Dec 27 2023 to Jan 05,2024):-
Technical Patterns formation in last 8 Sessions intraday charts
1- Selling(Resistances) in last 8 Sessions are as follows:-
A- 21701-21749
B- 21683-21700
2- Consolidation(Supports) in last 8 Sessions are as follows:-
A- 21630-21662
B- 21594-21624
C- 21501-21542
3- Mixed Patterns formation between
A- 21628-21685
B- 21558-21591
5- Last 8 Sessions trading between 21501-21834
Conclusions from 8 Sessions
intra day chart analysis
Last 8 Sessions trading between 21501-21834 with above mentioned supports, resistances and sideways trading ranges with Mixed Patterns formation. It seems that both supports and resistances of last 8 sessions are almost equally strong therefore it will be understood that at present Nifty is technically not prepared for any side decisive moves beyond last 8 sessions range and will firstly prepare for it in the coming week within it. As finally sustaining beyond or forceful break out/down of last 8 sessions trading range will confirm next Short/intermediate Term trend therefore it should be firstly watched in the coming week/weeks for its confirmations.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart
Analysis(05-Jan-2024)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (05-Jan-2024):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- Selling between 21725-21749
2- Sharp fall
3- Selling between 21683-21704
4- 63 Points down in one hour
4- Support between 21630-21662
5- Sharp up
6- Selling between 21701-21724
7- Whole day actual trading between 21630-21749
Conclusions from intra day
chart analysis
Although firstly up moves after positive opening and Nifty traded 91 points Plus also but fresh selling developed at intraday higher levels and more than 2 hours selling was seen in Mid-Session also therefore Nifty traded in negative zone after slipping 63 points down in next one hour and lost all intraday gains.
As some supports developed at lower levels therefore sharp up moves were also seen after that but again selling was seen in last 40 Minutes therefore whole day good intraday selling at higher levels and minor supports at lower levels will be understood last Friday and resultant down moves below last Friday lowest(21629.2) will be expected in the beginning of next week.
Conclusions (After putting
all studies together)
1- Long Term trend is up.
2- Intermediate Term trend is up.
3- Short Term trend is at stake which will be finally decided by sustaining beyond or forceful break out/down of last 8 sessions trading range(21501-21834).
Although Impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 forcefully continuation and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts but intraday charts of last 8 sessions are showing some selling at higher levels and Short term indicators are also signalling Short term correction beginning possibility therefore firstly sustaining beyond or forceful break out/down of last 8 sessions trading range should be watched in the coming week/weeks for its confirmations.
As Union Budget will be tabled after 17 sessions and Quarterly results of the most Companies will also be announced in this month as well as euphoria has been developed after 2996.5 points strong rally in the last 2 months 9 sessions trading therefore view should be cautious because:-
1- This Union Budget is Pre-Election and may be populist also.
2- EOD charts of last 1 month are showing "Bearish Rising Wedge" like formations also.
3- Euphoria developed after 2996.5 points strong rally and due to it intraday Selling is being seen for the last few sessions.
Remain cautious and watch following next supports one by one amid Short to Intermediate Term correction expectations in the coming week/weeks
1- 21512-21599
2- 21282-21405
3- 21052-21161
4- 20950-20976
5- 20770-20852(Strong supports)