Watch Crucial Levels for next Short Term Trend after previous week Global markets crashing
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Jun 26 to Jun 30,2023)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (23-Jun-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" completion at 15183.4 on 17-06-2022 and Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure beginning.
2- Impulsive Wave-[(i)] of Wave-1 completion at 18096.2 on 15-09-2022.
3- Corrective Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-1 completion at 16747.7 on 30-09-2022.
4- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022 and Corrective Wave-A of "ABC" correction begining.
5- Corrective Wave-A of Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion at 17774.3 on 26-12-2022.
6- Corrective Wave-B of Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion at 18265.3 on 30-12-2022.
7- Corrective Wave-C of Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion strongest indications after its recent bottom formation at 16828.3 on 20-03-2023.
8- Pull Back Rally continuation with recent top formation at 18886.6 on 22-06-2023 which is only one point shorter than life time top at 18887.6.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Waves structure)
Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure started after Corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" of previous Waves structure completion at 15183.4 on 17-06-2022. Its Impulsive Wave-[(i)] of Wave-1 completed at 18096.2 on 15-09-2022 and Corrective Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-1 started which completed at 16747.7 on 30-09-2022 and from this levels impulsive Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 begun.
Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022 and Corrective Wave-A of "ABC" correction bugun which completed at 17774.3 on 26-12-2022. Wave-B begun from this level which completed at 18265.3 on 30-12-2022. Wave-C started from this levels and strongest signals of its completion at 16828.3 on 20-03-2023 because the Pull Back Rally which begun from this levels has completed almost whole corretion and remained only one point short at 18886.6 on 22-06-2023 from the top(18887.6) of Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 which is life time highest as well.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (23-Jun-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Pull Back Rally continuation with recent top formation at 18886.6 on 22-06-2023 which is only one point shorter than life time top at 18887.6.
2- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling from Over bought zone.
3- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 48.50 & %D(3)- 62.56.
4- MACD- Its both lines are kissing in positive zone.
5- MACD(26,12)- 144.10 & EXP(9)- 160.84 & Divergence- -16.74
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Positions of Daily indicators are as follows:-
1- As in Short Term indicator Stochastic %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines have started to fall from Over bought zone therefore more down moves will be seen in the coming week.
2- As both lines of MACD are kissing in positive zone therefore at present this indicator is not signalling any side clear trend. Its both lines are kissing for the last more than one month which means that one sided clear intersection will mean that side big move beginning. As its both lines are in positive zone therefore once up side intersection will mean fresh and strong rally beginning.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (23-Jun-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
Averages:-
1- 5-Day SMA is today at 18773
2- 21-Day SMA is today at 18659
3- 55-Day SMA is today at 18255
4- 100-Day SMA is today at 17908
5- 200-Day SMA is today at 17929
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Averages)
As Nifty is well above Intermediate Term Trend(55-Day SMA) and Long Term Trend(200-Day SMA) deciders therefore at present no risk of its turning down but Nifty moved below 5-Day and 21-Day SMA at 18647.1 last Friday during last 2 sessions correction therefore Short Term Trend is at stake.
Although Nifty closed litle above 21-Day SMA at 18665.50 last Friday but sustaining below 21-Day SMA(18659) will mean Short Term Trend turning down confirmation which should be firstly watched in the beginning of next week.
Nifty-Last 8 Sessions
intraday charts analysis
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jun 14 to Jun 23,2023):-
Technical Patterns formation in last 8 Sessions intraday charts
1- Last 8 sessions top formation at 18886.6 on 22-06-2023
2- Last 8 sessions bottom formation at 18647.10 on 23-06-2023
3- Selling(Resistances) in last 8 Sessions are as follows:-
A- 18843-18859
B- 18849-18886
4- Mixed Patterns formation
A- 18684-18741
4- Last 8 Sessions actual trading between 18647.10-18886.6
Conclusions from 8 Sessions
intra day chart analysis
Last 8 Sessions actual trading between 18647.10-18886.6 in which previous 2 sessions were highly volatile because both 8 sessions highest and lowest were formed in these 2 sessions.
As Nifty closed near the lower levels of last 8 sessions therefore sustaining beyond the lowest(18647.10) of last 8 sessions should be firstly watched in the beginning of next week for:-
1- Deeper correction beginning confirmations below it.
2- First signal of fresh up moves beginning above it.
As 5 Hours Mixed Patterns formation between 18684-18741 last Friday therefore finally sustaining above 18741 will confirm fresh up moves beginning hence should also be watched for its confirmations.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(23-Jun-2023)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (23-Jun-2023):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- 124 Points down in first 30 minutes after weaker opening
2- 5 Hours Mixed Patterns formation between 18684-18741
3- 54 Points fall in last half hour
4- Whole day actual trading between 18648-18756
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As all the Asian markets were weaker and Dow Jones Futures was also trading in Red therefore sentiment turned dampened last friday morning hence Nifty moved down 124 points down in first 30 minutes after weaker opening. Although after this intraday up moves were seen but Mixed Patterns formation were seen in next 5 hours therefore Nifty fallen 54 Points in last half hour and last Friday closing was near the lower levels of the day because sentiment was too much depresed in last hour due to negative zone trading of all European markets.
Although last Friday closing was near the lower levels of the day after loosing 0.56% points but these down moves were due to most depressing Global markets and 5 Hours trading was with Mixed Patterns formations also which means that complete selling patterns were not seen therefore firstly sustaining beyond last Friday lowest(18648) should be watched in the beginning of next week for the confirmations of next decisive moves beginning.
Conclusions
(After putting all studies together)
1- Short Term Trend is at stake which will get confirmation after sustaining beyond its decider 21-Day SMA(today at 18659).
2- Intermediate Term Trend is up.
3- Long Term Trend is up.
Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completed at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022 and after this "ABC" correction begun. Strongest signals of its Wave-C completion has been developed at 16828.3 on 20-03-2023 because the Pull Back Rally which started from this level has completed almost whole correction after its highest formation at 18886.6 on 22-06-2023 which was only one point shorter than the highest((18887.6)) of Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 and it was life time top as well.
As most Global markets remained in crshing mode during last 2 sessions therefore Nifty missed new life time top formations only by 1 points which was above 18887.6 and slipped 239 points in last 2 sessions after highest formations only 1 point below it at 18886.6 on 22-06-2023.
Although MACD indicator is not suggesting any side trend but Stochastic indicator is showing signals of more Short Term down moves which may be seen in next week therefore firstly sustaining beyond following "Crucial Levels" should be watched in the coming week for next Short Term Trend formation confirmations:-
1- 21-Day SMA which is today at 18659
2- Last 8 sessions lowest at 18647.10
Next resistances above last 8 sessions lowest(18647.10) have been updated above and next supports below it are as follows:-
1- 18532-18565
2- 18479-18516
3- 18419-18445
4- 18373-18397
5- 18325-18353
6- 18203-18261
7- 18059-18127