Strong rally beginning expectation
towards & above life time highest
after 2 Crucial Levels break out
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Feb 13 to Feb 17,2023)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Feb-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022.
2- Corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 continuation with recent bottom formation at 17353.40 on 01-02-2023.
3- 24 sessions sideways trading range(17762-18265) broken down on 27-01-2023
4- Last Friday closing within previous 24 sessions trading range at 17856.50
5- Last 11 Sessions actual trading between 17354-17972 which is Budget day(01-02-2023) trading range.
6- Last 7 sessions Pull Back Rally continuation with recent top formations at 17916.90 on 09-02-2023.
7- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are rising within Over bought zone.
8- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 88.05 & %D(3)- 81.18.
9- MACD- Its both lines are kissing in the negative zone
10- MACD(26,12)- -122.47 & EXP(9)- -138.11 & Divergence- 15.64
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Waves structure of Nifty was potsed in previous week weekly Outlook and since then no material change in it therefore not being updated in this week weekly Outlook.
Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 was completed at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022 and its corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 started which is in continuation with recent bottom formation at 17353.40 on 01-02-2023 and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts.
Although 24 sessions sideways trading range(17762-18265) was broken down on 27-01-2023 but after this next 2 Weekly closing was within this range therefore confirmation of this range valid break down is still required. As last 11 Sessions trading was between 17354-17972 which is within Budget day(01-02-2023) trading range also and Last 7 sessions Pull Back Rally continuation with recent top formations at 17916.90 on 09-02-2023 therefore firstly sustaining beyond last 11 Sessions trading range should be watched in the coming week for first strong signal of corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 continuation/completion.
Positions of Daily indicators are as follows:-
1- In Stochastic its %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are rising within Over bought zone therefore some more up moves can not be ruled out. Although its both lines are in Over bought zone but let its downward intersection happen then Short Term correction will be considered.
2- In MACD its both lines are kissing in negative zone therefore showing indecisiveness signals. Let its one sided clear cross over happen then that sided Short Term Trend will be considered accordingly.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Fibonacci retracement levels)
Nifty-EOD Chart (10-Feb-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-1 completion at 16747.7 on 30-09-2022.
2- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022.
3- Corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 continuation with recent bottom formation at 17353.40 on 01-02-2023.
4- Fibonacci Retracement levels of Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 which started from 16747.7 and completed at 18887.6.
5- Fibonacci Retracement levels of Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1(16747.7-18887.6) are as follows:-
13.0%- 18609
23.6%- 18382
27.0%- 18309
38.2%- 18070(Crucial)
50.0%- 17817(Crucial)
61.8%- 17565(Crucial)
70.7%- 17374
76.4%- 17252
78.6%- 17205
88.6%- 16991
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Fibonacci retracement levels)
Corrective Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-1 completed at 16747.7 and impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 started which completed at 18887.6. Now corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 is in continuation with recent bottom formation at 17353.40 on 01-02-2023 which will correct impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1(16747.7-18887.6) according to above mentioned Fibonacci retracement levels.
As Nifty has corrected 61.8% Crucial Level(17565) and also has retraced upto 70.7% Level(17374) after lowest formation at 17353.40 on 01-02-2023 as well as strong Pull Back Rally developed after this lower levels formation therefore signals of Corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion have emerged. Let confirmation come then its completion will be considered.
Nifty-Last 11 Sessions
intraday charts analysis
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jan 27 to Feb 10,2023):-
Technical Patterns formation in last 11 Sessions intraday charts
1- Lower levels strong base formation from Jan 27 to Feb 03,2023 between 17354-17688
2- Last 3 sessions most time trading between 17801-17876 with intraday consolidation patterns formation indications
3- Last 11 Sessions actual trading between 17354-17972
Conclusions from 11 Sessions
intra day chart analysis
Last 11 Sessions actual trading between 17354-17972 in which firstly strong base was formed at lower levels between 17354-17688 and after that up moves started on 03-02-2023. As last 3 sessions most time trading was below last 11 sessions highest without slipping below 17688 therefore signals of sustaining at higher levels of 11 sessions range have been seen. As some consolidation at lower levels in previous 3 sessions have also been seen therefore up moves beginning expectations above last 11 sessions highest(17972) have emerged.
Fresh consolidation without sustaining below 17801 will be first strong signal of strong rally beginning and finally sustaining above last 11 sessions highest(17972) will confirm it which should be firstly watched in next week.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(10-Feb-2023)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (10-Feb-2023):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- Whole day sideways trading with consolidation patterns indications between 17801-17876
2- Whole day actual trading between 17801-17876
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although firstly slipping after weaker opening and Nifty traded 92 points down also last Friday but whole day sideways trading was seen with consolidation patterns indications therefore view will not be Bearish immediately. Expected that Nifty will firstly trade within and near about last Friday trading range(17801-17876) as well as prepare for next decisive moves beginning therefore finally sustaining beyond last Friday trading range should be watched in the beginning of coming week for next decisive moves beginning confirmations.
Conclusions
(After putting all studies together)
1- Short Term Trend is sideways between 17354-17902.
2- Intermediate Term is down.
3- Long Term Trend is up.
Although corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 is in continuation with recent bottom formation at 17353.40 on Union-Budget day(01-02-2023) and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts but following signals of its completion have emerged which should be firstly watched in the coming week/weeks:-
1- Nifty has retraced 61.8% Crucial Level(17565) and sustaining above it for the last 6 sessions with recent lowest formation above it at 17585 on 03-02-2023.
2- Last 11 Sessions trading between 17354-17972 with lower levels strong base formation between 17354-17688.
3- Last 3 sessions most time trading between 17801-17876 with intraday consolidation patterns formation indications.
4- Nifty has not slipped below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA(today at 17313) during on going correction.
Next supports and resistances beyond last Friday closing(17856) are as follows:-
Supports:-
1- 17816-17841
2- 17719-17783
3- 17585-17718
4- 17513-17552
5- 17438-17492
6- 17226-17374
Resistances:-
1- 17912-17972
2- 18109-18132
3- 18155-18192
4- 18216-18240
5- 18345-18387(Strong resistances)
As more than 500 points recovery from lower levels from Union-Budget lowest and lower levels good intraday consolidation patterns formations were seen also in the last 11 sessions therefore strong rally beginning possibility has emerged after on going Wave-(ii) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 correction completion. Let nifty to sustain above following next 2 Crucial levels then strong rally will be seen towards and above life time highest and it is expected also:-
1- Last 11 sessions highest(17972)
2- Previous 24 sessions trading range highest(18265)