Finally rally above life time highest(20222.45) without sustaining below 19600
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Sep 25 to Sep 29,2023)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (22-Sep-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 16828.3 on 20-03-2023 & Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 beginning.
2- Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 completion at 19991.8 on 20-07-2023 & Corrective Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 beginning.
3- Corrective Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at 19223.7 on 31-08-2023 & Impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 beginning.
4- Impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 continuation with recent and life time top formations at 20222.45 on 15-09-2023 but Short Term correction beginning from this level.
5- Short Term correction continuation with recent bottom formations at 19657.50 on 22-09-2023.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Waves structure)
Corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completed at 16828.3 and Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 started which completed at 19991.8. Then corrective Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 begun which completed at 19223.7 and impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 started which is in continuation with recent top formations at 20222.45 on 15-09-2023 and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts. As Short Term correction begun from this level which is in continuation with recent bottom formations at 19657.50 on 22-09-2023 and no confirmation of its completion also on EOD and intraday charts therefore fate of this on going Short Term correction should be firstly watched in the coming week for next trend formation confirmations.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (22-Sep-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling within and towards Over sold zone.
2- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 5.28 & %D(3)- 29.88.
3- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line upward,Its MACD line is falling and Average line is rising in positive zone.
4- MACD(26,12)- 326.82 & EXP(9)- 280.22 & Divergence- 46.6
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Positions of Daily indicators are as follows:-
1- As in Stochastic %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling within and towards Over sold zone therefore first signal of on going Short term correction completion has been developed. Let %K(5) line to intersect %D(3) line upward clearly then upward moves will be seen after Short term correction completion.
2- Although in MACD indicator its MACD line has intersected Average line upward but its MACD line is falling and Average line is rising therefore showing little indecisiveness. As its both lines are in positive zone therefore finally up moves will be expected after on going Short Term correction completion on EOD charts.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (22-Sep-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
Averages:-
1- 5-Day SMA is today at 19928
2- 21-Day SMA is today at 19686
3- 55-Day SMA is today at 19606
4- 100-Day SMA is today at 19143
5- 200-Day SMA is today at 18471
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Averages)
Nifty closed below both 5-Day and 21-Day SMA last Friday during on going Short Term correction which is its continuation confirmation. Although Nifty has not tested Intermediate Term Trend decider 55-Day SMA and recent bottom of on going correction is at 19657.5 which was formed last Friday therefore firstly sustaining beyond 55-Day SMA(19606) should be watched in the coming week for:-
1- The life and length of on going correction.
2- The life of both Short and Intermediate Term Trends.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Fibonacci retracement levels)
Nifty-EOD Chart (22-Sep-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 beginning from 19223.7 on 31-08-2023 & .
2- Impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 continuation with recent top formations at 20222.45 on 15-09-2023.
3- Short Term correction continuation with recent bottom formations at 19657.50 on 22-09-2023.
4- Crucial Fibonacci Retracement levels of Impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 from 19223.7 to 20222.45 are as follows:-
23.6%- 18986 (Retraced)
38.2%- 18840 (Retraced)
50.0%- 18723 (Retraced)
61.8%- 18605
76.4%- 19459
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Fibonacci retracement levels)
Correction of impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 is in continuation and Nifty has retraced more than 50.0% of this wave up moves. As most crucial 61.8% retracement level(19605) is little below the lowest(19657.5) of on going correction therefore firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched in the coming week for the life of this wave correction.
Conclusions
(After putting all studies together)
1- Long Term trend is up.
2- Intermediate Term trend is up. This will be finally decided according to sustaining beyond its decider 55-Day SMA which is today at 19606.
3- Short Term trend is down.
Impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 is on with recent top formations at 20222.45 on 15-09-2023 but Short Term correction started from this level which is in continuation with recent bottom formations at 19657.50 on 22-09-2023 and no confirmation of its completion also on EOD and intraday charts.
Nifty has closed below both 5-Day,21-Day SMA and most Crucial 50.0% retracment level last Friday therefore Short Term Trend turning down confirmations. As Nifty has not tested Intermediate Term Trend decider 55-Day SMA which is today at 19606 and most crucial 61.8% retracement level which is at 19605 as well as both these levels are just above next psychological level of 19600 therefore this levels has become next trend and big moves decider in following manner:-
1- Sustaining below 19600 will mean correction correction confirmations towards the bottom of Wave-(v) of Wave-3 at 19223.7 after Intermediate Term trend turning down and 61.8% retracement level broken down confirmations
2- Sustaining above 19600 will mean fresh rally beginning towards and above life time highest(20222.45) after Short Term correction completion and honouring both Intermediate Term trend decider 55-Day SMA and most crucial 61.8% retracement level.
As Stochastic indicator has shown first signal of on going Short term correction completion and both lines of MACD indicator are in positive zone therefore it will be understood that indicators are signalling fresh up moves beginning after some more lower levels consolidations.
Indian Stock market is Bullish mode and now correction of impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 is in continuation which is near its completion levels because Indicators are also suggesting its completion therefore expected that finally rally will start and remain continued above life time highest(20222.45) without sustaining below 19600 despite slipping towards and below it can not be ruled out.