Firstly watch Intermediate Term trend
decider 55-Day SMA amid
correction continuation expectations
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly
Outlook(Aug 28 to Sep 01,2023)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (25-Aug-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Last 38 sessions most time trading range(19297-19991) broken down and first time closing below it at 19265.80 on 25-08-2023
2- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling towards Over sold zone.
3- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 45.86 & %D(3)- 59.77.
4- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are kissing in negative zone.
5- MACD(26,12)- -139.70 & EXP(9)- -131.93 & Divergence- -7.77
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Short Term correction which started from 19991.8 on 20-07-2023 is in continuation with recent bottom formations at 19229.7 on 25-08-2023 and no indication of its completion yet on EOD charts. Positions of Daily indicators are as follows:-
1- As in Short Term indicator Stochastic %K(5) line has again intersected %D(3) line downward in previous week and its both lines are falling towards Over sold zone therefore more downward moves are expected in next week.
2- As in MACD indicator its both lines are kissing in negative zone therefore at present this indicator is not showing any side clear trend but its both lines are in negative zone therefore finally downward intersection will mean on going correction continuation confirmations which should be firstly watched in next week.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (25-Aug-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
Averages:-
1- 5-Day SMA is today at 19377
2- 21-Day SMA is today at 19497
3- 55-Day SMA is today at 19309
4- 100-Day SMA is today at 18761
5- 200-Day SMA is today at 18346
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Averages)
As Nifty had sustainined below both Short Term Trend deciders 5-Day and 21-Day SMA therefore confirmed that Short Term Trend has turned downward. Nifty has closed(19250.30) below Intermediate Term Trend decider 55-Day SMA which is today at 19309 therefore it will be understood that Intermediate Term Trend is at stake and firstly sustaining beyond 55-Day SMA should be watched in the coming week for Intermediate Term Trend and next big moves beginning confirmations.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(25-Aug-2023)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (25-Aug-2023):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- Up moves after 71 points gap down opening
2- Selling between 19296-19339
3- Selling between 19276-19299
4- Sharp fall in last half hour
5- Whole day actual trading between 19230-19339
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although firstly up moves after 71 points gap down opening but higher levels good intraday selling developed last Friday therefore Sharp fall was seen in last half hour. As only intraday selling and consolidation was not seen therefore firstly down moves below last Friday lowest will be seen in the beginning of next week.
Conclusions
(After putting all studies together)
1- Long Term trend is up.
2- Intermediate Term trend is still up but at stake and firstly sustaining beyond 55-Day SMA(today at 19309) should be watched in the coming week for its confirmations.
3- Short Term trend is confirm down.
Impulsive Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 is in continuation with recent and life time top formations at 19991.8 on 20-07-2023 and no confirmations of its completion yet on EOD charts but Short Term correction started from this levels which is in continuation with recent bottom formations at 19265.80 on 25-08-2023.
As Short Term indicator Stochastic is signalling correction continuation possibility and last Friday intraday charts are also showing more downward moves signals therefore firstly Bearish moves are expected in the beginning of next week and following supports/levels should also be watched one by one for the length of on going correction:-
1- Watch those next supports below last Friday closing(19265.80) which were posted in previous week Weekly Outlook.
2- Watch following Fibonacci Retracement levels of Impulsive Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1(from 16828.3 to Wave-19991.8):-
13.0%- 19,580.5 (Retraced)
23.6%- 19,245.2
27.0%- 19,137.7
38.2%- 18,783.3 (Crucial)
50.0%- 18,410.1 (Crucial)
61.8%- 18,036.8 (Crucial)
70.7%- 17,755.2
76.4%- 17,574.9
78.6%- 17,505.3
88.6%- 17,188.9
Correction continuation expectations and firstly sustaining beyond Intermediate Term trend decider 55-Day SMA(today at 19309) should be watched in the coming week for its confirmations because its turning down confirmations will mean minimum 3 weeks to 3 Months long correction and testing possibility of Long Term trend decider 200-Day SMA(today at 18346) also can not be ruled out in that situation.