Finally watch 19300 for next big
moves beginning confirmations amid firstly downward moves expectations
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly
Outlook(Aug 14 to Aug 18,2023)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (11-Aug-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Impulsive Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 beginning from 16828.3 on 20-03-2023.
2- Impulsive Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 continuation with recent top formations at 19991.8 on 20-07-2023.
3- Short Term correction continuation with recent bottom formations at 19296.5 on 03-08-2023.
4- Last 29 sessions trading between 19297-19991
5- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling towards Over sold zone.
6- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 51.33 & %D(3)- 66.84.
7- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in positive and negative zone.
8- MACD(26,12)- -74.70 & EXP(9)- 33.78 & Divergence- -108.48
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Impulsive Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 started from 16828.3 on 20-03-2023 and in continuation with recent top formations at 19991.8 on 20-07-2023, Short Term correction begun from this level which is in continuation with recent bottom formations at 19296.5 on 03-08-2023 and no indication of its completion yet on intraday and EOD charts. Positions of Daily indicators are as follows:-
1- As in Short Term indicator Stochastic %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling towards Over sold zone therefore showing more downward moves signals in the next week.
2- As in MACD indicator MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in positive and negative zone therefore indicating downward trend formation stronger possibility.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (11-Aug-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
Averages:-
1- 5-Day SMA is today at 19555
2- 21-Day SMA is today at 19652
3- 55-Day SMA is today at 19177
4- 100-Day SMA is today at 18550
5- 200-Day SMA is today at 18280
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Averages)
As Nifty has closed below 5-Day and 21-Day SMA last Friday and except this 5-Day SMA has intersected 21-Day SMA downward also therefore confirming Short Term trend turning downward and more downward moves possibility in next week hence firstly sustaining beyond 55-Day SMA should be watched in the coming week for Intermediate Term trend confirmation. Let confirmation of sustaining beyond 55-Day SMA come then next trend will be considered accordingly.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Head and Shoulders like pattern formations)
Nifty-EOD Chart (11-Aug-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Head and Shoulders like pattern formation indications on EOD charts
2- Neckline at 19300
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Head and Shoulders like pattern formations)
Head and Shoulders like pattern formation indications on EOD charts with its Neckline at 19300 therefore firstly sustaining beyond 19300 should be watched in the coming week/weeks because once sustaining below it will mean minimum 691.8 points fall according to following calculations.
Head is at 19991.8-Neckline is at 19300=691.8 points
Nifty-Last 29 Sessions intraday
charts analysis
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jul 04 to Aug 11,2023):-
Technical Patterns formation in last 29 Sessions intraday charts
1- Selling(Resistances) in last 29 Sessions are as follows:-
A- 19485-19504
B- 19538-19623(Strong resistance)
C- 19642-19707
D- 19724-19793
E- 19793-19825(Strong resistance)
F- 19906-19925
G- 19964-19987
2- Consolidation(Supports) in last 29 Sessions are as follows:-
A- 19376-19392
A- 19297-19365
3- Last 29 Sessions actual trading between 19297-19991
Conclusions from 29 Sessions
intra day chart analysis
As last 29 Sessions trading between 19297-19991 with higher levels good selling and multiple strong resistances as well as lower levels comparatively much weaker supports therefore fresh selling in the beginning of next week will mean high possibility of Nifty slipping below last 29 sessions lowest. Firstly sustaining beyond last 29 Sessions lowest(19297) should be watched in next week because sustaining below it will mean deeper correction beginning after last 29 sessions like big trading range broken down confirmations.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(11-Aug-2023)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (11-Aug-2023):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- More than 60 points sharp fall in first 2 minutes after positive opening
2- More than 5 hours selling between 19485-19504
3- Sharp fall in last half hour
4- Whole day actual trading between 19413-19557
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although positive opening last Friday but firstly more than 60 points sharp fall was seen in first 2 minutes and after that more than 5 hours selling developed therefore again Nifty fallen sharply in last half hour. As only intraday selling patterns formations and consolidation was not seen therefore down moves beow last Friday lowest(19413) will be seen in the beginning of next week.
Conclusions (After putting all studies together)
1- Long Term trend is up.
2- Intermediate Term trend is up but at stake and firstly sustaining beyond 55-Day SMA(today at 19177) should be watched in next week/weeks for its confirmations.
3- Short Term trend is down.
Short Term correction started from 19991.8 on 20-07-2023 and is in continuation with recent bottom formations at 19296.5 on 03-08-2023 and no signal of its completion yet on intraday and EOD charts therefore more down moves can not be ruled in in next week because:-
1- Short Term Indicators are showing downward moves continuation signals.
2- Short Term Averages are confirming weakness
3- Only intraday selling patterns formations in last friday intraday charts.
As higher levels multiple resistances have been developed in last 29 Sessions trading between 19297-19991 and lower levels comparatively much weaker supports are being seen and more downward moves possibility in the beginning of next week also therefore firstly sustaining beyond last 29 Sessions lowest(19297) should be watched in next week because:-
1- Neckline of Head and Shoulders like pattern is at 19300
2- sustaining below 19300 will confirm minimum 691.8 points downward moves
Although firstly downward moves expectations in the beginning of next week but finally sustaining beyond 19300 should be watched in the coming week for next big moves beginning confirmations because:-
1- Sustaining below it will confirm deeper correction beginning
2- Sustaining above it will generate first signal of fresh up moves beginning towards life time highest after on going correction completion.