Finally watch 19237 amid firstly
up moves expectations towards
next resistances
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly
Outlook(Aug 21 to Aug 25,2023)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (18-Aug-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Impulsive Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 beginning from 16828.3 on 20-03-2023.
2- Impulsive Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 continuation with recent top formations at 19991.8 on 20-07-2023.
3- Short Term correction continuation with recent bottom formations at 19253.6 on 18-08-2023.
4- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling towards Over sold.
5- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 37.79 & %D(3)- 37.27.
6- Stochastic is showing positive divergence
7- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in negative zone.
8- MACD(26,12)- -130.11 & EXP(9)- -64.66 & Divergence- -65.45
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Impulsive Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 begun from 16828.3 on 20-03-2023 and in continuation with recent top formations at 19991.8 on 20-07-2023. Its correction started from this level which is in continuation with recent bottom formation at 19253.6 on 18-08-2023 and no confirmation of its completion yet on intraday and EOD charts. Positions of Daily indicators are as follows:-
1- Although in Short Term indicator Stochastic %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling towards Over sold zone therefore more downward moves can not be ruled out. As Stochastic is showing positive divergence also therefore emergence of Short Term trend reversal will be understood and it will get confirmation after %K(5) line upward intersection of %D(3) line.
2- As in MACD indicator MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in negative zone therefore confirming downward trend formation as well as more more downward moves possibility.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (18-Aug-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
Averages:-
1- 5-Day SMA is today at 19400
2- 21-Day SMA is today at 19591
3- 55-Day SMA is today at 19237
4- 100-Day SMA is today at 18643
5- 200-Day SMA is today at 18314
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Averages)
As Nifty has closed below both Short Term 5-Day and 21-Day SMA last Friday and 5-Day SMA has intersected downward 21-Day SMA also therefore confirming that Short Term Trend has turned downward. Intermediate Term Trend decider 55-Day SMA is at 19237 and lowest of on going correction was just above it at 19253.6 last Friday therefore firstly sustaining beyond 19237 should be watched in next week for Intermediate Term Trend final confirmations.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(18-Aug-2023)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (18-Aug-2023):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- 89 Points down in first minute after gap down opening.
2- Consolidation between 19254-19295
3- Sharp up
4- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
5- Whole day actual trading between 19254-19373
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although firstly 89 points down moves in first minute after gap down opening but lower levels consolidation was seen between 19254-19295 therefore sharp up moves developed after 01:30 PM and Nifty recovered more than 100 points in half hour. As follow up consolidation was seen in last hour through Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel therefore up moves are expected above last friday highest(19373) in the beginning of next week.
Conclusions
(After putting all studies together)
1- Long Term trend is up.
2- Intermediate Term trend is still up but at stake and firstly sustaining beyond 55-Day SMA(today at 19237) should be watched in the coming week/weeks for its confirmations.
3- Short Term trend is down.
Short Term correction which started from 19991.8 on 20-07-2023 and is in continuation with recent bottom formations at 19253.6 on 18-08-2023 and no confirmation of its completion yet on intraday and EOD charts.
Although MACD indicator is showing downward moves continuation signals but Short Term indicator Stochastic is suggesting fresh up moves beginning possibility also as well as intraday charts of last Friday is indicating up moves in the beginning of next week therefore firstly up moves are expected towards following next resistances in the beginning of next week;-
1- 19394-19415
2- 19485-19504
3- 19538-19623(Strong resistance)
Next supports below last friday closing are as follows:-
1- 19254-19295
2- 19202-19234(Gap Supports)
3- 19136-19155
4- 19075-19107
5- 19012-19024(Gap Supports)
6- 18951-18976
7- 18865-18891
8- 18830-18861(Gap Supports)
9- 18772-18789
10- 18716-18747
11- 18647-18675
12- 18532-18565
13- 18479-18516
14- 18419-18445
15- 18373-18397
16- 18325-18353
17- 18203-18261
18- 18059-18127
Long Term Trend is still up and its decider 200-Day SMA is today at 18314 as well as all the supports near about it has been updated above. Although Intermediate Term trend is still up but at stake at 19237 because no confirmation of on going correction completion yet therefore sustaining it beyond should also be watched in next week/weeks. Finally sustaining below 19237 will mean deeper correction beginning confirmations towards above mentioned 18 supports amid firstly up moves expectations towards above mentioned resistances.